Last-Minute Adds To Valspar Championship 2023 Betting Card

After soaking up more information for the Valspar Championship 2023, I carved out a bigger budget in my golf bankroll to add a couple of looks to the bet slip.

The Valspar is played at the Innisbrook Resort Copperhead Course in Palm Harbor. It's the final of the PGA Tour's 4-event Florida Swing. Both the course/event preview and my Valspar Championship "4 Horsemen" are available below.


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Justin Thomas vs. Jordan Spieth at the Valspar

Thomas (+1100) and Spieth (+1200) are the the 1st and 2nd favorites, respectively, to win the Valspar Championship 2023 at DraftKings Sportsbook. But, anyone backing Spieth over JT has recency bias and is only looking at recent results.

Spieth finished T19 at THE PLAYERS Championship last week and T4 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational 2023 (API). Thomas was T60 at THE PLAYERS and T21 at the API.

However, as the OutKick golf guy Mark Harris pointed out, Spieth was spraying his driver all over the place and got a couple of lucky bounces to even make the cut.

JT is 4th in my Valspar power rankings and Spieth is right behind him at 5th. Both play well at here. Spieth won the 2015 Valspar and Thomas led the field in Strokes Gained (SG): Tee-to-Green (T2G) in the last two Valspars.

Also, Thomas is 1st in the field for both total SG at Par 71 courses with difficult scoring conditions and SG in windy weather. Reportedly, Innisbrook will be a tougher track this year and it's in Florida so you always have to account for wind.

More importantly, JT outranks Spieth in my key stats model over the last 24 and 50 rounds and the sportsbooks are fading Spieth. Thomas's head-to-head odds vs. Spieth are higher at non-DraftKings shops.

BET: 1 unit Justin Thomas to beat Jordan Spieth (-120) in the 2023 Valspar Championship at DraftKings

Jhonattan Vegas

Now that Keegan Bradley has withdrew from the Valspar, the field has gotten easier. Vegas ranks 12th on my Valspar power rankings but has the 23rd-best odds according to DraftKings.

Par 5 scoring is important because the Par 3s and the long Par 4s are mad difficult. Over the last 36 rounds, Vegas is 5th in this field for SG: Par 5 and 6th in Par 4 Scoring: 450-500. Three of the hardest holes at Innisbrook are within that yardage. 

Vegas is 3rd in total SG at comp courses used over the last 50 rounds. His biggest weakness is putting but Vegas has picked up strokes on the greens in four of his last five Florida Swing events.  

These are the best odds I found and bet for Jhonattan Vegas:

Updated Valspar Championship Bet Slip