'Zig-Zagging' On The Indiana Pacers At New York Knicks Game 2 Total Friday

The New York Knicks (0-1) suffered one of the worst losses in their franchise's history, which is saying something, against the Indiana Pacers (1-0) in Game 1 of the 2025 Eastern Conference Finals. It was Indy's fourth insane comeback win in these playoffs, and NYK's first epic collapse after stealing a few victories from the jaws of defeat themselves this postseason. 

Pacers SF Aaron F*cking Nesmith, as I'm sure New Yorkers are calling him, went nuts at the end of Game 1, and Tyrese Haliburton hit a game-tying 2-pointer as time expired in regulation. Other Knick blunders contributed to the collapse. But, according to ESPN, they had a 99.7% win probability when up 14 points with 2:51 remaining and ended up losing 138-135 in overtime. 

New York opened as -5.5 favorites for Game 2 and is -6.5 at the time of writing. The market expects a bounce-back by the Knicks, who closed as -4.5 favorites for Game 1. Whenever a home favorite loses Game 1, the market backs them to even the series before going on the road, whether it's motivation or the team that stole the series opener resting on its laurels. 

The Knicks will probably even the series, but I don't trust them to win by 7+ points Friday, and would rather bet their +140 adjusted series price. I'm more interested in zig-zagging on the total for Game 2. The public typically bets Overs in primetime and playoff games. Yet, the Game 2 total opened at 227 and is 224.5 as of noon ET Friday, which is still 3.0 points higher than Game 1's total. 

UNDER 224.5 in Pacers-Knicks Game 2 

Their 273 combined points in Game 1 were due to unsustainable shooting rather than pace. They shot roughly 51% from the field Wednesday but combined for just 18 fastbreak points. For context, New York averages 12.8 fastbreak points per game (PPG) this postseason and Indiana is scoring 14.1 fastbreak PPG. 

During halftime, Charles Barkley said Game 1 was playing at Indy's pace. The Chuckster was onto something, and I'm expecting NYK to turn Game 2 into a "rock-fight". They were 26th in pace during the regular season and the Pacers play full-court defense to wear teams out. Plus, both have a below-average 3-point attempt rate and limit opponents from chucking threes. 

Indiana Pacers PG Tyrese Haliburton putting up a prayer over New York Knicks C Mitchell Robinson as time expires in the fourth quarter of Game 1 in the 2025 Eastern Conference Finals. (Photo Credit: Brad Penner-Imagn Images)

Also, since 2021, home favorites in the playoffs are 13-3 straight up with a +13.3 scoring margin after losing Game 1. The market is betting that trend continues Friday, and blowouts are where Overs go to die, especially in the playoffs. Indiana will be happy to split the first two games in New York, and the pace slows down in the fourth quarter of blowouts. 

Related: TYRESE HALIBURTON'S GIRLFRIEND, JADE JONES, IS MUCH BETTER LOOKING THAN HIS JUMPER

Both teams don't turn the ball over and, besides Jalen Brunson, neither gets to the foul line often. The Pacers are one of the worst offensive rebounding teams in the NBA and the Knicks crushed them on the glass Wednesday, so Indiana will focus on defensive rebounding more in Game 2, which limits its ability to get out in transition. 

Prediction: Knicks 116, Pacers 103

• I'd wait until closer to tip-off before betting the total, hoping that the public continues to bet the Over, and we get a better number on the Under.

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