'Horses For The Course' In A Sanderson Farms Championship 2023 No One Will See
Golf returns to the States after playing a drama-filled Ryder Cup in Rome, Italy last week. The PGA Tour's Fall FedEx Series. The Country Club of Jackson in Mississippi hosts this week's Sanderson Farms Championship 2023.
Honestly, there's no chance this event is on one of my TVs either Saturday or Sunday. Football is the top priority until the Super Bowl. The Sanderson has a watered down field with most of the top golfers taking the Fall FedEx Series off.
Canadian, and reigning Sanderson champion, Mackenzie Hughes is in the field. Otherwise, the most notable golfer in the field is 2023 Ryder Cup Team Europe member, Ludvig Åberg.
Mackenzie Hughes reacts after a putt at the 2nd playoff hole during the final round of the 2022 Sanderson Farms Championship at The Country Club of Jackson in Jackson, Mississippi. (Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images)
Anyhow, I built a model using FantasyNational.com's tools to make my Sanderson Farms power rankings. My inputs include key stats over the last 50 and 75 rounds on Tour, CC of Jackson course history and crossover course performance.
It's boring but it helps me write and bet on a sport I've never played. Speaking of which, let's discuss my betting strategy. My goal is to win 20 units (u) for picking a golfer to win and make a placement bet to cover my outright plus at least 1u of profit.
Also, avoid making placement bets at sportsbooks that apply "dead-heat" rules. This is when a golfer you bet ties for top-5, 10, 20, etc. and your bet is divided by the number of tied golfers. Since that sportsbook isn't a sponsor, I won't name it. But, I'll give you a hint: It's a movie studio and casino in Las Vegas.
Sanderson Farms Championship 'Horses for the Course'
Emiliano Grillo
This is one of "my guys". I cashed an 80-to-1 outright bet on Grillo when he won the 2023 Charles Schwab Challenge in May. He made me money at last year's Sanderson Farms where he tied for 5th.
On top of that, he finished in the top-10 in five more events last season. This includes a T6 at The 151st Open Championship and T7 at the 2023 RBC Heritage, which is a "signature event on Tour.
Grillo is tied for the 4th-best odds to win the Sanderson Farms (+2500) at PointsBet. In my Sanderson Farms power rankings, the Argentinian is numero uno. He is 3rd in my KPIs over the last 75 rounds.
Emiliano Grillo lines up a putt on the 17th green during the final round of the 2022 Sanderson Farms Championship. (Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images)
Also, Sanderson Farms is a "birdie fest". The average score of the last five Sanderson Farms is 19-under. Last season, Grillo crushed this course. He hit three more greens-in-regulation per round than the next closest golfer.
The 2-time PGA Tour winner has always been a good ball striker. But, Grillo has turned his biggest weakness (putting) into a strength. This improvement in putting is why he was T5 at the Sanderson Farms last year.
Grillo finished T39, T35, and T39 at the Sanderson Farms in the prior three years. CC of Jackson has Bermuda greens greens and the Argentinian is 22nd in this field for total Strokes Gained (SG): Putting over the last 24 rounds on Bermuda.
1st thoroughbred: Emiliano Grillo
Sam Ryder
The CC of Jackson is a pitch-and-putt course. SG: Approach (APP) with the irons, especially from inside 150 yards, and SG: Putting are the two most important stats for the Sanderson Farms.
Well, over the last 50 rounds, Ryder ranks 5th in this field for Proximity from 100-125 yards out and 6th in SG: APP. Ryder has gained strokes with his irons in four straight starts, which includes a T14 at last month's Fortinet.
Sam Ryder tees off the 9th hole during the 3rd round of 2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic at Detroit Golf Club. (Junfu Han/USA TODAY NETWORK)
Furthermore, Ryder is 12th in SG: Putting on the PGA Tour since the beginning of last season. Over the last 24 rounds on Bermuda greens, Ryder is 18th in this field for SG: Putting. Ryder has the 16th-best odds to win the Sanderson Farms but is 7th according to my numbers.
Lastly, he's finished T45 at last year's Sanderson Farms, T51 in 2021, and missed the cut in his 1st three appearances in this event. Yet Ryder has picked up strokes with the irons in three consecutive Sanderson Farms starts and on the greens in four straight.
2nd thoroughbred: Sam Ryder
Dylan Wu
Per PGATour.com, six of the last nine Sanderson Farms winners were 1st-time winners on Tour. Wu checks that box. More importantly, he is 3rd in my power rankings and 2nd in my KPIs over the last 50 rounds.
The 27-year-old ranks 2nd in this field for Par 5 scoring and birdie average over the last 50 rounds. Last year was Wu's 1st on Tour so we have a small sample size. But, he leads this field in total SG at easy courses over the last 36 rounds.
Dylan Wu tees off on the 11th green during the second round of the AdventHealth Championship at Blue Hills Country Club on May 21, 2021 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Ed Zurga/Getty Images)
Wu was T67 at last season's Sanderson Farms and missed the cut in his 1st Sanderson in 2019. I'm just going to disregard that because Wu is nails on the greens lately. He is 6th in SG: Putting on Bermuda over the last 24 rounds.
Lastly, Wu was T14 at the Fortinet earlier this fall and T5 at the 3M Open in July last season. The 3M Open and Fortinet are "birdie fests" too so this bodes well for him. Based on the odds and the vibe, Wu is my favorite look at the 2023 Sanderson Farms.