2022 Sanderson Farms Championship Best Bets

The Country Club of Jackson (Mississippi) hosts the 2022 Sanderson Farms Championship, which tees off Thursday, Sept. 29.

This is a Par 72 course at 7,461 yards. It’s the ninth consecutive year the Country Club of Jackson is hosting the Sanderson.

A 144-golfer field featuring defending champion Sam Burns (12th in the Official World Golf Rankings) competes for a $7.9 million prize pool with the winner earning 500 FedExCup points.

The Sanderson is the second event of the 2022-23 PGA Tour season. The first event — the 2022 Fortinet Championship — was an atrocious start for yours truly.

Here’s a quick recap of my Fortinet action: 0-4 on golfers staked and 1-1 in head-to-head matchups for -5.38 units (u).

Win & Picks To Place

  • Cameron Davis: Win, Top-5, Top-10 & Top-20 (-2u)❌
  • Davis Riley: Win, Top-5, Top-10 & Top-20 (-1.25u)❌
  • Chris Kirk (added via Twitter): Win, Top-10 & Top-20 (-1u)❌
  • Chris Gotterup: Win, Top-10 & Top-20 (-0.75u)❌

Head-To-Heads

  • Chris Kirk > Thomas Detry (-1.375u)❌
  • Taylor Pendrith > Maverick McNealy (+1u)✅

Whatever. I’m shaking it off. My confidence in handicapping the PGA Tour is sky-high. I was +29.32u betting the PGA Tour last season. The comeback is on.

Sanderson ‘Horses For The Course’

  • All stats are provided by FantasyNational.com unless otherwise noted.

Russell Henley

Russell Henley. (Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

By my numbers, Henley is the third-best golfer in this field but DraftKings Sportsbook prices Henley with the fifth-best odds.

This will be a birdie-fest as the average winning score at the last five Sandersons is 20-under. Henley is sixth in total Stokes Gained (SG) at courses with easy scoring conditions over the last 50 rounds. He’s also fifth in this field at Birdies-or-Better (BoB) gained.

More importantly, Henley is the top-ranked golfer in my custom stat model. Henley is the best irons player and ball striker in the field. He has the most SG: Approach (APP), SG: Ball-striking and SG: Tee-To-Green (T2G).

He ranks sixth in Proximity (PROX): 125-150 and 10th in PROX: 100-125. These yardage range stats are used because APP shots from those distances are higher the Country Club of Jackson than the PGA Tour average.

Finally, Bermuda greens are Henley’s best putting surface, which is the type of grass used at Country Club of Jackson.

Go to DraftKings Sportsbook and bet the following Russell Henley odds:

  • Win: (0.25u: +2200)
  • Top-5: (0.25u: +500)
  • Top-10: (0.5u: +275)
  • Top-20: (1u: +130)

Emiliano Grillo

Emiliano Grillo at Silverado Resort and Spa North course in Napa, California. (Orlando Ramirez/Getty Images)

This is another undervalued golfer according to my model. Grillo crushes courses 7,400 yards or longer with easy scoring conditions (fifth in this field for SG: T2G).

Also, Grillo has the second-most SG in this field in the last 24 rounds. He’s picking up 1.4 strokes per round on the field over that span.

Grillo has finished in the top 20 in three of his last six events including a 2nd-place at the John Deere Classic, which is also a birdie-fest.

He’s picked up strokes over the last five events in all five major categories (SG: T2G, SG: Off-the-Tee, APP, Around-the-Green and Putting).

Lastly, Grillo is hot with the flat stick, gaining three strokes on the greens per event at his last five tourneys.

BET Emiliano Grillo at DraftKings Sportsbook.

  • Win: (0.125u: +4000)
  • Top-5: (0.125u: +800)
  • Top-10: (0.5u: +400)
  • Top-20: (.75u: +190)
Scott Stallings (Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

Scott Stallings

Stallings won this event back in 2012 and set the scoring record at 24-under. However, it was called the “True South Classic” then and hosted by the Annandale Golf Club in Madison, Mississippi. Annandale is a comparative course to Country Club of Jackson.

According to my numbers, Stallings is the top-ranked golfer in this field. He grades out seventh in my custom stat model, fifth in SG over the last 24 rounds and 10th in SG at comp courses. Stallings ranks second in PROX: 100-125, eighth in PROX: 125-150 and 10th in BoB gained.

We are getting a good price on Stallings because he sucked at the TOUR Championship in late August. Again, Stallings is fifth in SG over the last 24 rounds despite losing 14.4 strokes to the field at the TOUR Championship.

Otherwise, Stallings finished second at the BMW Championship, 13th at the Wyndham Championship, 10th at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, fourth in the John Deere Classic and eighth at the Travelers Championship over his last seven events.

BET Scott Stallings at DraftKings Sportsbook.

  • Win: (0.125u: +3000)
  • Top-5: (0.125u: +550)
  • Top-10: (0.5u: +300)
  • Top-20: (.75u: +170)

Head-To-Heads

Denny McCarthy (+100) vs. Sahith Theegala

All of the PGA Tour insiders rave about Theegala’s future and I’ve made some cash backing him. But, I’m fading Theegala in this spot since the easier scoring conditions at this course level the playing field.

McCarthy is eighth in this field for SG over the last 24 rounds while Theegala is 53rd. He ranks second in the field for SG at this event and third in SG at comp courses. McCarthy has finished in the top 20 for four of his five appearances in the Sanderson Championship.

Also, McCarthy has one of the best putters on Tour. He is fourth in this field for SG: Putting on Bermuda greens whereas Theegala ranks 67th. The Country Club of Jackson’s course doesn’t provide much defense so I’ll take the better putter.

McCarthy is eighth in the field at Par 4 Efficiency: 450-500 yards and Theegala ranks 35th. The Sanderson Championship has six Par 4 holes within that yardage.

BET D. McCarthy (+100) over S. Theegala at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Keegan Bradley (+100) vs. Taylor Montgomery*

*DraftKings mistakenly spells Montgomery as “Montgomery”

Courtesy of FantasyNational.com

Montgomery is a rookie all the golf talking heads are excited about and he’s looked great recently. He finished third at the Fortinet and top 10 in his three previous Korn Ferry Tour events.

But, betting Bradley at even-money vs. Montgomery is a no-brainer. Bradley ranks 11th in my custom stat model while Montgomery sits at 123rd. See all the key stats Bradley crushes him in.

Also, Montgomery picked up 11.2 strokes on the green at the Fortinet, which is due for regression. Montgomery’s only poor performance in his previous five events was a missed cut at the 2022 U.S. Open where Bradley finished seventh.

Bradley is 12th for SG at the Country Club of Jackson and second in SG: T2G in courses longer than 7,400 yards with easy scoring conditions. This is Montgomery’s first Sanderson Farms Championship.

BET K. Bradley (+100) over T. Montgomery at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Final Bet Slip

  • Russell Henley: Win, Top-5, Top-10 & Top-20 (2u)
  • Emiliano Grillo: Win, Top-5, Top-10 & Top-20 (1.5u)
  • Scott Stallings: Win, Top-5, Top-10 & Top-20 (1.5u)
  • Denny McCarthy (+100) > Sahith Theegala (1u)
  • Keegan Bradley (+100) > Taylor Montgomery (1u)

FOLLOW GEOFF ON TWITTER: @Geoffery_Clark

Listen to the ‘OutKick Bets with Geoff Clark’ podcast HERE.


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Written by Geoff Clark

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