After a short break, the PGA Tour 2022-23 season tees off Thursday, Sept. 15 at Napa Valley, California. The 2022 Fortinet Championship is the PGA Tour’s first event and plays at the Silverado Resort and Spa North course.
Silverado’s North course is a par 72 with a 7,123 yardage and the defending champion is Max Homa (22nd in the Official World Golf Rankings). The average cut line in the last five Fortinet Championships has been 2-under with the average winning scoring of 17-under.
A few of the key stats I added to my model (courtesy of FantasyNational.com) include Strokes Gained (SG): Ball-striking (BS), SG: Approach (APP), opportunities (Opps) gained and much more.
Since this is the first event of the season, let me give you a preview of how I approach and track my golf betting. I’ll wager “units” on several different golfers across their outright, top-5, top-10 and top-20 markets. The bet sizes will be represented with “u”.
Fortinet ‘Horses For The Course’
Davis is the highest power-ranked golfer in this 156-person field. He ranks seventh in better in the field over the last 50 rounds in Par 3 efficiency: 175-200, Par 4 efficiency: 350-400, Birdies-Or-Better (BoB) gained, Opportunities (Opps) gained and SG: App.
Par 3 efficiency: 175-200 and Par 4 efficiency: 350-400 shows up in my model because there are three Par 3 and three Par 4 holes in those distances.
Also, recency bias is something you want to avoid when handicapping team sports. But, in golf, typically the golfers in the best form win events. Well, Davis is sixth in this field for SG over his last six events.
Davis had a four-event streak of finishing in the top 20 snapped with a 35th-place finish in the second round of last season’s FedEx Cup Playoffs at the BMW Championship.
He finished 13th in the St. Jude’s FedEx Championship, 14th at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, 16th at the 3M Open and eighth at the John Deere Classic. Two of those events — Rocket Mortgage and 3M Open — were played at courses similar to Silverado.
Finally, Davis is eighth in SG: Tee-to-Green (T2G) on short-Par 72 courses over the last 50 rounds and is picking up strokes in all five major categories (APP, T2G, Off-the-Tee, Around-the-Green and Putting) in his last 5, 10 and 20 events.
Head to DraftKings Sportsbook and bet the following Cameron Davis odds:
- Win: (0.25u: +2200)
- Top-5: (0.25u: +600)
- Top-10: (0.5u: +260)
- Top-20: (1u: +125)
Riley had the third-best rookie season last year on the PGA Tour with second-most cuts made (20) and second-most top-10 finishes (six).
More importantly, Riley’s game fits Silverado. Riley ranks first in Par 4 efficiency: 350-400, second in Proximity: 75-100, fourth in Par 5 efficiency: 550-600 and eighth in Par 4 efficiency: 400-450.
Silverado’s north course has three Par 5 holes within 550-600 yards and six Par 4 holes within 400-450 yards. Plus there are 3.6% more approach shops within 75-100 yards, per FantasyNational.com.
But, we are getting a good price for Riley because he missed the cut at last year’s Fortinet. He also ranks 58th in the field for SG over the last 24 rounds and struggles at comparable golf courses.
Riley certainly has the game to win the Fortinet and will benefit from last year’s experience. BET these DAVIS RILEY markets on DraftKings Sportsbook:
- Win: (0.125u: +3500)
- Top-5: (0.25u: +800)
- Top-10: (0.25u: +400)
- Top-20: (0.625u: +180)
Golfers at the Fortinet could use a bomb-and-gauge approach to playing Silverado since the course doesn’t offer much defense and has a less penal rough. In fact, the last five winners of the Fortinet all rank in the top 20 in this field for driving distance.
With this in mind, Gotterup’s 329-yard average driving distance would be the PGA Tour’s highest last season if he played enough events to qualify. Furthermore, Gotteup ranks fourth per my numbers over the last 50 rounds.
Gotterup is 10th for SG: BS, sixth in Proximity: 75-100 and fifth in Opps gained. He missed the cut at the Korn Ferry Championship. But, Gotterup is 15th in this field for SG over his last 24 rounds on the PGA Tour. Also, Gotterup’s best putting surface is poa, which is the grass used for Silverado’s greens.
I’m more sprinkling on Gotterup as a longshot but there are some juicy odds for him at DraftKings Sportsbook:
- Win: (0.125u: +13000)
- Top-10: (0.125u: +900)
- Top-20: (0.5u: +180)
Taylor Pendrith (+105) vs. Maverick McNealy
Gimme that plus-money payout for TAYLOR PENDRITH (+105) who grades higher in my model and is trending better than his opponent, Maverick McNealy at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Pendrith is the 6th-best golfer in the field according to my numbers and McNealy is 38th over the last 50 rounds. Also, Pendrith has the most SG in the field over the last 24 rounds with top-13 or better finishes in four of his last five events.
Lastly, Fortinet is going to be a birdie-fest and Silverado’s north course is small. Pendrith is sixth in this field SG at 7,200-yard and shorter courses over the last 50 rounds while McNealy is 80th.
Chris Kirk (-110) vs. Thomas Detry
Kirk crushes Detry in several key stats I mixed into my Fortinet model. Here’s a peek behind the curtain:
As you can see, Kirk is the better ball striker even though he’s not long off the tee because his iron play is far superior. Kirk gets a lot closer to the hole on second-shot distances that are common at Silverado.
Detry is priced higher than Kirk in DraftKings’ daily fantasy since he had a stronger finish to his season. But, several of those events were either on the Korn Ferry Tour or DP World Tour.
Kirk’s struggles at the end of last season were in the FedEx Playoffs and The Open Championship and Scottish Open, both of which are played on links-style courses.
However, Kirk had seven top-20 finishes in 2022, highlighted by a 5th-place at the 2022 PGA Championship. Also, Detry has never played at Silverado or any of the comparable courses used in my model.
BET CHRIS KIRK (-110) over Thomas Detry at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Final Bet Slip
- Cameron Davis: Win, Top-5, Top-10 & Top-20 (2 units)
- Davis Riley: Win, Top-5, Top-10 & Top-20 (1.25 units)
- Chris Gotterup: Win, Top-10 & Top-20 (0.75 units)
- Taylor Pendrith (+105) > Maverick McNealy (1 unit)
- Chris Kirk (-110) > Thomas Detry (1.25 units)
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