Fade The Public: Bet Texas Over Washington In CFP Semifinal At Sugar Bowl
Part II of the 2024 College Football Playoff doubleheader kicks off at 8:45 p.m. ET New Year's Day. The No. 2, and Pac-12 champion, Washington Huskies (13-0) meet the No. 3, and Big XII champion, Texas Longhorns (12-1) in the Allstate Sugar Bowl. The winner will face whoever claims the Rose Bowl between the Michigan Wolverines vs. Alabama Crimson Tide earlier on Monday.
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After crushing opponents through October, the Huskies almost got knocked off toward the end of the season. Washington won its final three games of the season by a combined eight points including a 34-31 win over the Oregon Ducks in the conference championship.
Washington Huskies coach Kalen DeBoer greets Texas Longhorns coach Steve Sarkisian at a 2024 College Football Playoff press conference in New Orleans. (Aaron E. Martinez/American-Statesman/USA TODAY NETWORK)
Texas's only slip up this season was a 34-30 loss to the Oklahoma Sooners in the Red River Shootout back in October. The Longhorns had one of the most impressive wins this year in college football. UT went into Tuscaloosa and upset the Alabama Crimson Tide 34-24 in September.
I hate to do this but I'm flip-flopping on my Washington +4 pick from my recent Weekend Betting Guide. Honestly, I'm shook by the betting splits and the line movement, or lack thereof. These CFP games are one of the best times to fade the public and, apparently, the public is betting the Huskies.
Washington Huskies vs. Texas Longhorns odds (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Per Pregame.com, nearly 60% of the action as of 1 p.m. ET Monday afternoon is on Washington in the market. Yet, Texas's spread is pricier currently at Bookmaker and Betcris. This matters because those are two of the sharpest oddsmakers in the world, known for booking the largest sports bets.
In my experience, it's profitable to fade the public in these CFP matchups. Last season, I ignored the betting splits and took +13.5 with the TCU Horned Frogs vs. the Georgia Bulldogs in the CFP Final. Georgia beat the brakes off of TCU 65-7.
I made the mistake the year prior by betting Alabama to upset Georgia after the Crimson Tide beat the Bulldogs in the 2021 SEC championship a few weeks before. The public backed 'Bama as +2.5 'dogs and Georgia beat them 33-18 in the CFP Final.
NO. 2 WASHINGTON HUSKIES ARE UNDEFEATED AND RANKED HIGHER THAN 1-LOSS TEXAS, SO WHY ARE THEY UNDERDOGS AGAIN?
That said, I'm reversing course with the Longhorns for football-based reasons too. Washington has a one-dimensional offense and Texas's defense is elite in high-leverage situations. The Huskies rank 99th nationally in rushing yards per game and UT is 5th in yards per rush allowed.
Texas's strong rushing defense helps it get opponents off the field and keeps them out of the end zone. For instance, the Longhorns lead the country in defensive 3rd-down conversion rate and ranks 5th in red-zone scoring rate allowed.
Texas Longhorns QB Quinn Ewers celebrates a Big XII conference championship with WWE's The Undertaker at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. (Caten Hyde/The University of Texas Athletics/Getty Images)
Furthermore, I can make a case for Texas stopping the Huskies and I cannot the other way around. The Longhorns are 23rd in rushing yards per game. Washington is 76th in opponent's 3rd-down conversion rate and 73rd in red-zone defense. Plus, the Huskies are 130th in sack rate.
Lastly, Washington-Texas has a 62.5-point total, meaning the sportsbooks are expecting a lot of points. The Longhorns can win by margin Monday by out-executing the Huskies on 3rd down and in the red zone.