Survivor Dream Ends, Fight Lives On In Circa Million VII NFL Week 5
Down 0–1 after that TNF disaster, my NFL Week 5 Circa Million VII card swings for chaos, featuring three ugly underdog picks.
My NFL Week 5 kicked off with a rare Thursday Night Football loss after the Los Angeles Rams' sh*t-show vs. the San Francisco 49ers, eliminating me and the homie, David Troy, from survivor. Now, all of my NFL handicapping attention turns to the Circa Million VII, where I was 10-10 after the first four weeks, and tied for 1,475th out of 5,685 entries.
Week 4 Recap: 2-3
- Carolina Panthers (+5.5) ❌
- Seattle Seahawks (-1.5) ✅
- Dallas Cowboys (+6.5) ✅
- Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) ❌
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5) ❌
Week 5 lines for the Circa Million VII NFL handicapping contest. (Courtesy of @CircaSports on X)
Circa Million VII NFL Week 5 Card
- Rams (-8.5) ❌
- New York Jets (+2.5)
- New York Giants (+2)
- Las Vegas Raiders (+7)
- Houston Texans (-2)
Circa Million VII Pick #1: 49ers at Rams (-8.5) ❌
LAR lost to San Francisco 26-23 in overtime Thursday, and I’m not exaggerating when I say this is one of the worst sports betting losses of my life. Not quite monetarily, more emotionally. Not only has my legendary TNF record been tarnished (now, 19-3 on sides and total bets since 2023).
But I had the Rams in Circa Survivor, which ended my dream of winning a share of the $18+ million prize pool as well. Oh, and LAR’s moneyline was the only leg of an SGP that didn’t cash, and I teased them down to -2.5. Needless to say, I hate this team, and I hope Mrs. Sean McVay burns her family’s Christmas dinner. PS Rams RB Kyren Williams is on my sh*t-list, too.
Pick #2: Cowboys at Jets (+2.5)
My analysis for the Dallas Cowboys at New York Jets game in NFL Week 5 for OutKick's daily newsletter.
Pick #3: Giants (+2) at New Orleans Saints
The biggest part of my handicap is that teams that are as bad as the Saints probably shouldn’t be favorites the week after being two-touchdown underdogs. Especially this early in the season. It’s one thing if a team has cluster injuries, dramatically underperforms preseason expectations, and is a +15 or higher underdog in December.
However, if you’re a +15 underdog in Week 4, like NOLA last week vs. the Buffalo Bills, you’re a terrible team. Granted, NYG sucks too, and the season-ending injury to WR Malik Nabers makes them worse. Yet, the sportsbooks knew Nabers was hurt, and the Giants still opened up as favorites for this game.
Regardless, the market has since bet the Saints up to a favorite, but the sportsbooks were right and the market is wrong. His mobility alone makes Giants rookie QB Jaxson Dart an upgrade from Russell Wilson because you can build a modern offense around Dart. He ran for 54 yards and a score in NYG's 21-18 upset win over the Los Angeles Chargers last week.
New York Giants QB Jaxson Dart runs for a touchdown vs. the Los Angeles Chargers at MetLife Stadium in NFL Week 4. (Photo: Yannick Peterhans-USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images)
All Wilson can do at this point in his career is slow dropbacks and moon balls. Wilson’s schtick just doesn’t work anymore. Joe Burrow is the least athletic elite quarterback in the league; otherwise, the other top-four QBs can run. I know Dart's passing numbers weren't impressive in his NFL debut, but he throws a good ball and gives the Giants another look.
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NYG has one of the best pass-rushes in the NFL, featuring Brian Burns, Dexter Lawrence, and No. 3 overall pick, Adubl Carter. They have better win rates across all four line of scrimmage metrics, per ESPN. Trench-play is the most predictive aspect of football. If a team can win at the point of attack, they’ll usually win the game.
Pick #4: Raiders (+7) at Indianapolis Colts
This is just too big of a number for Indy QB Daniel Jones, who everyone should still be skeptical of, vs. a Las Vegas team that ain't that bad. The Raiders are even in yards-per-play differential and +3 in net first downs. They have pretty good pass-catchers, such as WRs Jakobi Meyers and Tre Tucker, and all-world TE Brock Bowers, and Indianapolis is missing its best corner, Kenny Moore II.
Furthermore, rookie RB Ashton Jeanty finally looked good last week in a 25-24 loss to the Chicago Bears. He rushed for 138 yards last week on 21 carries and scored three times (two receiving and one rushing). Jeanty playing well is a huge boost to Las Vegas's offense. The Raiders are putting too much on QB Geno Smith's plate, and he needs the help of a good rushing attack.
The market is betting the Colts like it has the script. Per Pregame.com, roughly 90% of the action is on Indy as of Saturday evening. We know Indianapolis will be a popular teaser leg and a lot of people's choice in survivor leagues. Maybe I'm overthinking it, but the Raiders are going to give the Colts a game, and perhaps eliminate millions of survivor entries nationwide.
Pick #5: Texans (-2) at Baltimore Ravens
I thought Houston -2 was a "free square" before LAR somehow lost to San Francisco’s backups Thursday. I’m not so sure anymore. I mean, if Niners head coach Kyle Shanahan can coach up QB Mac Jones, then Baltimore’s John Harbaugh can find a way to win with Lamar Jackson’s backup, QB Cooper Rush.
But what’s done is done. I had to submit all five picks at once, and since I picked the TNF game, I’m stuck with the 1-3 Texans as a road favorite. At least they should be motivated for this game. Houston's poor record means it can't overlook anyone. Plus, this is a revenge game for the Texans after they were slaughtered by the Ravens 31-2 last Christmas.
Texans QB C.J. Stroud attempts a pass against the Baltimore Ravens at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas. (Photo Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images)
Also, Baltimore’s defense has been ravaged by injury and hasn't played well all season. The Ravens are missing LB Roquan Smith, cornerbacks Chidobe Awuzie and Marlon Humphrey, and S Kyle Hamilton isn't practicing, and is "questionable" for Sunday. They are giving up an NFL-worst 33.3 points per game, even when those guys played.
Hence, C.J. Stroud should have a get-right game vs. Baltimore. Stroud looked good in Houston's 26-0 win over the Tennessee Titans last week, completing 22-of-28 passes for 233 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions. Texans WR Nico Collins is a game-breaker who is being defended by backups. But, knowing my luck, Houston will win by a point, and the +2 will lose.
Circa Survivor, Week 5: Rams over 49ers 🤮
- Week 1: Jacksonville Jaguars
- Week 2: Arizona Cardinals
- Week 3: Buccaneers
- Week 4: Denver Broncos
I don't have anything else to say about this horsesh*t.
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