Wemby Vs. The Bad Boys: Take The Over In Pistons-Spurs Rematch

We get a rematch of last week's slugfest Thursday between the Detroit Pistons (45-15) and San Antonio Spurs (44-17), which looked more like their rock-fights in the 2005 NBA Finals. San Antonio overcame a Detroit mugging to beat the 2026 Bad Boy Pistons 114-103 in Motown February 23. 

Detroit tried to rough up Spurs All-Star big Victor Wembanyama, but to no avail. Wemby scored 21 points, grabbed a game-high 17 rebounds, and blocked six shots. Pistons All-Star PG Cade Cunningham, on the other hand, sucked. Cade scored just 16 points on an abysmal 5-for-26 shooting. 

Since their last meeting, both teams have won three of their last four games. Considering San Antonio beat Detroit by double digits on the road recently, it's surprising that the Spurs are only -3.5 favorites at home Thursday. Both have all their starters available and are playing on one day's rest. 

Best Bet: OVER 228.5 (-107), up 230, in Pistons-Spurs via Kalshi 

That said, I'm zig-zagging on the results from the last Pistons-Spurs game, which fell short of the 232.5 total by 15.5 points. I was on the Under that night, and it was a rare rocking-chair cover for me in the Association. The market reacted by dropping Thursday's total by 4.0 points, which is an overreaction. 

Detroit Pistons PG Cade Cunningham shoots a baseline jumper vs. the San Antonio Spurs at Little Caesars Arena. (Photo Credit: Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images)

Granted, betting an Over in Detroit and San Antonio games is sketchy since they rank second and third in defensive rating. But their last meeting had a 104.1 pace and a combined 38 free throws. For context, that would be the fastest pace in the NBA if it were a team, and these teams average a combined 51.6 free throws per game. 

The referees swallowed their whistles in that game, which was awesome to watch, but not something I'd expect again Thursday. Tony Brothers, the crew chief for this game, has a 24-17 Over/Under (O/U) record this season. Ultimately, officiating and pace are the two biggest factors for betting totals. 

Lastly, there has been sharp action that's pushed the total up from the 228 opener, and the market-making sportsbooks, Pinnacle and Circa Sports, have a higher total than the prediction markets and mainstream legal sportsbooks, like DraftKings and FanDuel. 

Prediction: Spurs 119, Pistons 117

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