Don't Chase Points: Why San Antonio Spurs At Detroit Pistons Will Cash The Under

A possible NBA Finals preview is the marquee game in the Association Monday when the Detroit Pistons (42-13) host the San Antonio Spurs (40-16) for a 7 p.m. ET tip-off at Little Caesars Arena. 

Pistons All-Star Cade Cunningham surged to the third-betting favorite to win the NBA MVP (+650) at FanDuel after tearing the New York Knicks apart at The Garden Thursday to start the second-half of the season. Cade scored a game-high 42 points and dished out a game-high 13 assists. 

Not to be outdone, the fourth-betting favorite to win the MVP, Spurs All-Star Victor Wembanyama (+2500) is averaging 22.5 points, 13.0 rebounds, 5.0 assists, and 4.5 blocks per game post-All-Star break. This will be the first meeting between the first overall picks in the 2021 and 2023 NBA Drafts. 

San Antonio Spurs at Detroit Pistons Odds (FanDuel) 

• Moneyline: San Antonio (+100) | Detroit (-118)
• Spread: Spurs +1 (-106) | Pistons -1 (-114)
• Total — 232.5 — Over (-110) | UNDER (-110)

Fading recent post-All-Star scoring spikes

Detroit has scored 126 points in both games since the NBA All-Star break, in wins over the Knicks and Chicago Bulls. San Antonio has put up 121 and 139 in its two outings in blowout victories over the Phoenix Suns and Sacramento Kings. That hot shooting has helped the teams combine to go 3-1 Over/Under (O/U) in those games. But don’t let two-game samples talk you into a track meet. 

The Pistons are 9-14 O/U as a home favorite with a -4.3 O/U margin, and the Spurs are 4-9 O/U as a road underdog with a -5.5 O/U margin. Also, Detroit ranks second in defensive rating, and San Antonio is third. When two elite defenses collide, the default assumption should be a lower-scoring game, especially after a few high-scoring affairs. 

Detroit’s 'easy points' may not be there

The Pistons are a mediocre shooting team and often have to manufacture offense by hustling, such as putbacks and scoring off turnovers. That’s a problem here, since San Antonio is seventh in offensive turnover rate and leads the NBA in defensive rebounding rate. 

Yes, February has been chopped up by the All-Star break. But Detroit is having its best month in key defensive categories: Points per game allowed (103.0 PPG) and defensive field goal percentage (43.2%). That’s not a profile that screams "Over," even if last week’s box scores do.

Expect a playoff-style game, not a showcase

This game will have a playoff-like atmosphere. These are two top-five teams in the Association, and they’re built similarly: young, physical, and athletic. Regular season be damned, both teams will bring real intensity. When that happens, possessions get more valuable, transition chances shrink, and every bucket gets contested.

BEST BET: UNDER 232.5 (-110), down to 231

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