Soft-A** Cavaliers Can’t Handle Detroit’s Grit: Bet The Pistons Tuesday

The second and third betting favorites to win the Eastern Conference play Tuesday when the Cleveland Cavaliers (38-24) host the Detroit Pistons (45-14) for their second meeting in five days. As -8 home favorites, Detroit needed overtime to beat Cleveland, which was missing All-Stars Donovan Mitchell and James Harden, 122-119 Friday. 

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Mitchell will be out again Tuesday, but Harden is expected to return. This is the Pistons-Cavaliers regular-season finale. Detroit won two of the first three meetings, but Cleveland covered in two of the three contests. The Pistons have won five of their six games since the All-Star break, including three straight, while the Cavs are 4-3 straight up (SU) over that span. 

Best Bet: Detroit Pistons -2.5 (-110), up to -3.5 

Even though Cleveland has two elite bigs in its starting 5, Detroit has a massive edge on the glass. The Pistons are second in offensive rebounding rate, and the Cavaliers are 20th in defensive rebounding rate. Detroit has a +5.4 rebound-per-game margin in its first three meetings with the Cavs this season. 

Also, teams take on their leaders' identities, and Mitchell and Harden are soft. Maybe that's a bit strong for Donovan, but definitely not Harden. Mitchell has a team-high +11.0 on/off net rating, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG). He scored a game-high 35 points in Cleveland's only win vs. Detroit this season back in October. 

Furthermore, the Pistons are second in defensive rating, and the Cavaliers are 6-14 SU vs. top-10 defenses with a -4.6 spread differential, per CTG. Between Mitchell's absence and Harden being a heliocentric player, Cleveland's offense should struggle Tuesday. I say "should" because there is a chance of a vintage Harden game. 

Detroit All-Star Cade Cunningham has taken his game to another level this season and has been fantastic post-All-Star break. Cade is the third betting favorite to win the NBA MVP (+700) at DraftKings. Cunningham is averaging more points (26.5), rebounds (7.2), and assists (11.2) per game since the All-Star game. He should tear up the Cavs' weak-a** backcourt defense. 

Prediction: Pistons 119, Cavaliers 111

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