Clay Travis' Outkick Gambling Picks For College Football Week Three, 2022
There's no way to sugarcoat it, last week was a disaster. Our OutKick gambling picks went 4-8, running our season tally back down to 13-10 on the year.
I've spent the week back in the lab, studying film, breaking down rosters, conducting the most thorough and comprehensive college football review known to man.*
The result? A perfect weekend is coming.
Yep, it's time to #respectthepicks. A 10-0 weekend starts Friday night.
*None of this is true. I've mostly tried to catch up on Cobra Kai Season 5.
Gambling Picks, Week 3
Tennessee quarterback Hendon Hooker and Notre Dame coach Marcus Freeman. (Getty Images)
Let's roll!
Florida State -2.5 at Louisville
The Seminoles have now had two weeks to revel in their victory over LSU, the perfect amount of time to come down after a big win. Now we've got a Friday night road game against an enigmatic Louisville team that held Central Florida scoreless in the second half on the road last Friday and came back to win.
This one feels tight, but ultimately I think the more rested Seminoles overcome what should be a good home crowd to get to 3-0 on the season.
Give me FSU for the cover.
Georgia at South Carolina +24.5
This is one of those bets where you either look like a genius or an idiot within 10 minutes after the game starts.
Because it's either 17-0 Georgia with five minutes to play in the first quarter and you're asking yourself why you were dumb enough to take the home underdogs or we're sitting somewhere around 7-3 and you're nodding your head slowly while you drink a beer thinking, "I really am a golden gambling god."
There's no in between. And y'all know what I think of myself.
PARALYZED HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL PLAYER SENDS ALABAMA MESSAGE WITH FIRST WORDS OFF OF VENTILATOR
So I'm jumping all in on Shane Beamer's team here because this is a massive number for a road team to be favored in the SEC. And historically at least South Carolina has tended to play Georgia pretty well in this border rivalry game.
I may be the only one on the Gamecocks, but it's time for the Cock Commander to rise up. The cock's crowing, baby, and South Carolina is covering the 24.5.
California +10.5 at Notre Dame
Notre Dame's offense is virtually nonexistent, they have injury issues at quarterback and a young coach who has yet to win a game. And you're giving me double digit points for an undefeated California team coming to town that would still consider a win in South Bend a signature accomplishment?
This is a no brainer, take the Golden Bears and the double-digit points.
Now, mind you, this is no great endorsement of Cal, they're an underdog for a reason -- the two wins so far are UC-Davis and UNLV. But Notre Dame has shown itself to be offensively inept. Given that the offense is unlikely to get better with starting quarterback Tyler Buchner out for the season, this is likely to be a defensive struggle without many points scored.
Which means this double-digit line is crazier than Joe Biden's inflation victory celebration. Give me the Golden Bears to cover.
Penn State at Auburn, the under 47.5
I will be on the road for this game on the Plains this weekend.
I'll be doing hits somewhere -- we're not sure where yet -- with the Big Noon Kickoff crew. So if you see a dashingly handsome man with a beard, it's probably not me, but I'll also be there.
This is a huge game for both James Franklin and Bryan Harsin because, while both teams are 2-0, neither has given a clear indication of what to expect in the remaining 10 games. And the schedule only gets more difficult for both teams going forward. If either team is winning eight or nine games, this is a must win.
CLAY TRAVIS RELEASES WEEK THREE COLLEGE FOOTBALL BETS
Penn State's a small favorite, but betting against SEC teams as home underdogs against out of conference opponents is a recipe, traditionally, for disaster. So I'm steering clear of that bet and instead locking the under here.
The two teams played last year in Happy Valley and it was pretty much an even contest that ended 28-20 Nittany Lions. I think we get a similar game this year at Auburn, only a bit more low scoring because Auburn is pretty bad on offense.
21-17 is the final. Who wins? Who cares?
The under cashes with ease.
Mississippi State -2.5 at LSU
Either Mississippi State or Arkansas is the second best team in the SEC West. And both of these teams may be able to give Alabama a run right now.
Two years ago, Mike Leach's Bulldogs rolled into LSU and put a whipping on the Bayou Bengals in the Tigers first game since their national championship. I think Leach puts another road whipping on LSU this coming Saturday.
Why?
The quarterback position. Mississippi State is set with Will Rogers and LSU is still a work in progress under center. Combine that with Leach's team being much more comfortable in year three of his system than Brian Kelly's team is in game two of his tenure and I like the Bulldogs to beat LSU by a touchdown or more in Death Valley.
Miami at Texas A&M, the under 45.5
The more I examined the Texas A&M box score against App State, the more ugly the offensive performance looked. I mean, the Aggies couldn't get 100 yards rushing or 100 yards passing against a team that gave up over 60 points to UNC the week before?
This Aggie offense is really, really bad.
And as the home team I think A&M dictates pace and tempo and takes this game down into the mud, putting points at an incredible premium.
In what looked like the signature game of the weekend prior to App State spoiling the party, the Aggies and Hurricanes both go low, lifting you up high ... as long as you take the under.
Akron +47.5 at Tennessee
Tennessee is 2-0 after a hard fought mess of a win on the road at Pittsburgh last week. Now they get the quintessential trap game with Akron coming to town as a monster underdog.
I don't think the Zips will put any kind of scare into the Vols, but I do think Tennessee wants to rest its starters for most of this game to keep them healthy for a huge game against Florida next weekend.
Meaning once the Vols get up four or five touchdowns all the reserves will come pouring in.
And that could happen by early in the third quarter, which means Akron will have a half against the Vol second, third and fourth teams to score some points and cover this number, which I think they'll do.
Give me the Zips plus the 47.5.
South Florida +24.5 at Florida
After what we saw of the Gator offense last week, I'm not willing to make Florida a 24.5-point favorite against hardly anyone in college football.
I know, I know, Anthony Richardson destroyed USF last year when these two teams played, but you've got a clear let-down scenario in play here for the Gators too. After an opener against Utah and an SEC opener against Kentucky, you get USF this week right before the Gators go on the road to play the Vols.
Add in the rest-the-starters factor, which is even more at play for Florida after two really tough games in a row to start the season, and this number feels far too high.
Give me the Bulls to cover the 24.5.
Old Dominion +9.5 at Virginia
ODU has already pulled off the upset over Virginia Tech and now they go on the road against a not very good Virginia team that could only put up three points against Illinois last weekend.
Ultimately I just don't think Virginia is very good and believe ODU will play well against another top school in their states.
ODU keeps it close and covers.
Liberty at Wake Forest, the over 63.5
This Wake Forest offense is for real, posting 44 and 45 points in the first two weeks of the season. Liberty's offense, meanwhile, hasn't been as consistent. In fact Hugh Freeze's defense has been ahead of his offense en route to a 2-0 start to the season.
But Wake plays so fast the possessions will pile up on both sides and this number goes roaring over the 63.5.
Buckle up for Dave Clawson vs. Hugh Freeze.
The over flies by and we finish off the day perfect at 10-0.
There you have it, boys and girls, it's time for all of us to get rich. See you at Auburn!