It's Time To Slump-Bust An Ugly NFL Week 6 Slate In Circa Million VII

Often, I can say something like, "Well, those were a couple of ‘bad beats’" or "Right side, wrong result". But not NFL Week 5 of the Circa Million VII handicapping contest. That was a f*cking embarrassment. I knew three of my top-four picks last week were losers immediately. Thank god, I came to my senses and added the Houston Texans to my Week 5 card at the last second. 

Week 5 Recap: 1-4 (11-14, tied for 2,585th out of 5,685 entries).  

1. Los Angeles Rams (-8.5) ❌
2. New York Jets (+2.5) ❌
3. New York Giants (+2) ❌
4. Las Vegas Raiders (+7) ❌
5. Texans (-2) ✅

Week 6 lines for the Circa Million VII NFL handicapping contest. (Courtesy of @CircaSports on X)

Circa Million VII NFL Week 6 Card

Listed by order of confidence. First is the most confident, and fifth is the least.

1. Kansas City Chiefs (-2)
2. Cleveland Browns (+5.5)
3. Los Angeles Chargers (-4)
4. Seattle Seahawks (pick 'em)
5. Carolina Panthers (+3)

Circa Million VII Pick #1: Detroit Lions at Chiefs (-2) 

I saw enough from KC's offense in a 31-28 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars on Monday Night Football. The Chiefs had season-highs in total yards (476), passing yards (318), and first downs (26). They have WRs Xavier Worthy and Marquise Brown back on the field, so they have adults in the WR room, so to speak. 

Furthermore, the Lions are missing their three best cornerbacks from the start of training camp. Andy Reid knows Detroit's offense is a truck right now and needs to keep it off the field. Kansas City leads the league in rushing EPA/play and plays per drive. I'm expecting Patrick Mahomes to papercut the Lions to death Sunday night. 

Ultimately, the market is treating Detroit like the best team in the NFL and sleeping on the Chiefs. They are healthier with a better quarterback, coach, and defense, and only -2 at home in a semi-must-win game. I know Kansas City is off to a 2-3 start, but I'm "buying the dip" and fading an overrated Lions team. 

LISTEN to Lions-Chiefs analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark.

Pick #2: Browns (+5.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers

There is too much situational analysis, overseas travel spot, rest disadvantage, "Mike Tomlin voodoo," and rookie quarterback stuff baked into these odds. Because, based on the stats, Cleveland should be a +3.5/+4 underdog here. The Browns have a -0.1 yard-per-play differential and are +12 in net first downs vs. the toughest schedule, per Pro Football Focus (PFF). 

Pittsburgh, on the other hand, has a -0.8 yard-per-play differential (ranked 27th) and -25 fewer first downs than its opponents against the 30th-toughest schedule, according to PFF. The Steelers have been out-gained and converted fewer first downs in every game this season, even against the bum-a** Jets. 

Also, Cleveland rookie QB Dillon Gabriel comported himself well in his NFL debut last week vs. a Minnesota Vikings defense that leads the NFL in EPA/play, per Sūmer Sports. Gabriel completed 19-of-33 passes for 190 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions. Conversely, Pittsburgh's defense is 23rd in EPA/play.

Granted, I'm not sure Gabriel is Cleveland's long-term answer at quarterback. However, he is athletic enough for Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski, who is a good playcaller, to build a modern game plan around. They have a solid offensive line, and rookie RB Quinshon Judkins looks like a game-breaker. 

More importantly, Cleveland's pass-rush should destroy Aaron Rodgers. The Browns lead the NFL in pass-rush win rate, per ESPN, and Pittsburgh's offensive line is 31st in pass-blocking win rate. Rodgers doesn't hold onto the ball long enough to push the ball downfield, and if he does, Myles Garrett will light him up.  

Pick #3: Chargers (-4) at Miami Dolphins 

My analysis of the Los Angeles Chargers at Miami Dolphins game in NFL Week 6 for OutKick's daily newsletter. 

LISTEN to Chargers-Dolphins analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark.

Pick #4: Seahawks (PK) at Jacksonville Jaguars 

My two biggest concerns for this pick are that the Seahawks could be popular because everyone saw the Jaguars get a little lucky in their Monday Night Football win over KC, and Seattle's injury report. But I'm taking the Seahawks regardless, because head coach Mike Macdonald could devise a defensive game plan despite their injuries, and QB Sam Darnold could win this game for Seattle. 

Macdonald is one of the best defensive minds in the NFL, and he's had all week to coach up the second-string because Seattle's injured players haven't practiced this week. Plus, Jacksonville's passing game sucks. The Jaguars are 21st in passing EPA/play, per Sūmer Sports, and their pass-catchers lead the league in drops (17). 

Furthermore, Jacksonville's bread and butter is the run game, and Seattle's defense is second in rushing EPA/play allowed. If the Seahawks can force Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence into a lot of third-and-obvious, Lawrence will make a crucial mistake. He's due for one brain-dead mistake per game. 

Also, Seattle's offense is healthy, and Darnold is legitimately balling. He is PFF's second-highest graded quarterback in the NFL. Darnold is fifth in aDOT and has the lowest turnover-worthy play rate. So, he's throwing the ball downfield accurately, and Jacksonville's pass coverage isn't that good. 

In fact, Jacksonville's defense is a little "smoke and mirrors" right now. Per ESPN Bet data analyst Sam Hoppen, the Jaguars lead the league in net EPA generated off turnovers, which is unsustainable. Their down-to-down defense is mediocre, and Darnold will be able to move the ball, as crazy as that might still sound. 

Pick #5: Dallas Cowboys at Panthers (+3)

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. Track my NFL 2025-26 bets here.