Circa Million VII Week 18: Five Picks For The NFL’s Trickiest Week

Week 18 is the toughest week to handicap this NFL season. Besides the three standalone games that have playoff ramifications, motivation is a question for every team. Most of the playoff spots are already clinched, and teams are prioritizing health over winning this week. Nonetheless, I have to find five winners in the Circa Million VII NFL handicapping contest. 

1-4 in NFL Week 17 (50-35, tied for 125th out of 5,684 entries). 

1. Dallas Cowboys (-7.5) ❌
2. Houston Texans (+1.5) ✅
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-5.5) ❌
4. Arizona Cardinals (+7.5) ❌
5. Carolina Panthers (+7) ❌

It's hard to get back out there after face-planting last week and snapping an 11-week winning streak. I fell outside the money (top-100), and my goal for a six-figure payout is dead. Yet, with a 4-1 or 5-0 this week, I can finish in the top-100 and pay for my Circa Million entry next season. That's enough to keep me motivated. Here are my five picks for the regular-season finale. 

Week 18 lines for the Circa Million VII NFL handicapping contest. (Courtesy of @CircaSports on X)

Circa Million VII NFL Week 18 Card

Listed by order of confidence. First is the most confident, and fifth is the least.

1. Chicago Bears (-3)
2. Seattle Seahawks (-1.5)
3. Tennessee Titans (+13)
4. Minnesota Vikings (-8.5)
5. Denver Broncos (-13.5)

Circa Million VII Pick #1: Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (-3)

There are five reasons why I like Chicago in this game: 

1. Detroit QB Jared Goff notoriously struggles outdoors in the winter, and it's January in Chicago. Enough said. 

2. This is a Revenge Game for the Bears and head coach Ben Johnson, who is facing his former employer. They got killed by the Lions 52-21 in Week 2. That loss has to stick with Chicago, regardless of its playoff situation. 

The Detroit Lions visit the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field in NFL Week 18. (Photo Credit: Lon Horwedel-Imagn Images)

3. Chicago should be motivated to clinch the 2-seed in the NFC postseason. That guarantees the Bears at least two home games in the playoffs if they win in the wild-card round, obviously. Plus, they avoid the NFC West in the wild-card game and face the banged-up Green Bay Packers. 

4. Detroit's defense is missing several starters, and Chicago's offense can move the ball on anyone. Since their Week 5 bye, the Bears are fifth in offensive efficiency and sixth in offensive success rate, according to RBSDM.com. 

5. The Lions forgot how to run the ball. They are 32nd in EPA per rush and 30th in rushing success rate since Week 13. 

Pick #2: Seattle Seahawks (-1.5) at San Francisco 49ers 

Typically, it’s wise to fade a team after a big win in primetime, and the Niners beat the Chicago Bears 42-38 in a thriller on Sunday Night Football last week. San Francisco allowing 38 points to Chicago is another reason for fading the 49ers. They have one of the worst defenses in the NFL, while Seattle has an above-average offense and a top-five defense.

I mean, the Niners have an excuse for their bad defense. They are missing several starters, including their best defensive players, LB Fred Warner and EDGE Nick Bosa. The Seahawks almost beat the 49ers in Week 1 (losing 17-13), and Warner and Bosa both played in that game. Bosa had a game-winning strip-sack fumble with 00:37 left when Seattle was on San Francisco’s 17-yard line.

Also, the 49ers probably won’t have All-Pro LT Trent Williams Saturday. He left last week’s game after one snap and hasn’t practiced all week. Seattle’s defense and coaching staff, led by defensive-minded head coach Mike Macdonald, can exploit the loss of Williams. When Macdonald was their defensive coordinator, the Baltimore Ravens dominated the Niners Christmas 2023. 

Lastly, the Seahawks can cut San Francisco’s playbook in half. The Niners average just 3.8 yards per rush (ranked 30th), and Seattle’s defense allows an NFL-best 3.7 yards per carry. The Seahawks will have plenty of opportunities to pin their ears back and get after 49ers QB Brock Purdy, which will be easier without Williams out there.

Pick #3: Tennessee Titans (+13) at Jacksonville Jaguars 

Jacksonville’s spread is getting taxed here because it clinches the AFC South with a win Sunday. The Jaguars were -6 in Tennessee the first time these teams played in Week 13, and these teams haven’t changed much. Albeit Jacksonville won 25-3 and the Titans have one of the worst rosters in the league. 

The Jacksonville Jaguars host the Tennessee Titans Sunday in NFL Week 18. (Photo credit: Andrew Nelles / The Tennessean-USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images)

But it’s not like the Titans are missing many key players this week that matter to the spread. After a two-point boost for home-field advantage, the Jaguars should be -10/-11 favorites here. Plus, Tennessee gets to play the spoiler role, and I could see Jacksonville, QB Trevor Lawrence, and rookie head coach Liam Coen tightening up in this big game.

Pick #4: Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (-8.5)

Simply put, one team wants to win, and the other doesn't have anything to play for. Minnesota has a chance to finish 9-8, which would be a nice way to end a disappointing season for first-year starting QB J.J. McCarthy. Green Bay is locked into the 7-seed for the NFC playoffs, and won't play any of its starters this week, and is starting third-string QB Clayton Tune. 

McCarthy has missed the past two games with a concussion, but this line suggests that he'll play Sunday. The Vikings wouldn't be -8.5 favorites in the Circa if third-string rookie QB Max Brosmer was starting again this week, and McCarthy was a full participant in practice Thursday. Playing the Packers' second-team defense is a nice landing spot for McCarthy in the regular-season finale. 

Minnesota Vikings QB J.J. McCarthy is on track to return for a Week 18 game against the Green Bay Packers. (Photo credit: Kayla Wolf-Imagn Images)

Furthermore, Minnesota is finishing the season strong, while Green Bay is limping down the stretch. The Vikings are on a four-game winning and cover streak, and the Packers have lost three consecutive games straight up and against the spread. Granted, Minnesota has played easy opponents, but again, none of Green Bay's starters will be out there this week. 

With that in mind, the Vikings will be motivated by contract incentives and stat milestones to crush the Packers. Minnesota WRs Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison can go nuts against Green Bay's backups. Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores can tee off on Tune behind a banged-up offensive line. 

Pick #5: Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos (-13.5)

I'm breaking a promise to myself to never bet on Denver QB Bo Nix because I cannot make arguments for five other teams. The Broncos clinch the 1-seed and everything that comes with it if they win this week. They have already won the AFC West, so LAC cannot move out of a wild-card spot, and I'm betting they rest most of their starters for this game.

Justin Herbert has already been ruled out, and his stats don't fully explain how good he's been this season. Herbert is under constant pressure and takes a beating every game because the Chargers have cluster injuries to their offensive line, including both Pro Bowl tackles, Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater. Without Herbert, LAC would be a 4-5-win team. Instead, they are an 11-win team. 

Denver was a -13.5 favorite vs. the Kansas City Chiefs on the road on Christmas last week. I know KC is bad, and Patrick Mahomes didn't play. However, they have to be better than the team the Chargers are fielding this week. At least you could argue the Chiefs were motivated to put on a show in front of their home crowd on Christmas. What keeps LAC from letting go of the rope here? 

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