Five Week 12 Best Bets From A Red-Hot NFL Gambler
Six straight winners in the Circa Million VII sets up my NFL Week 12 card by confidence: Cowboys, Chiefs, Bears, Jets, Saints.
It's all starting to click for me in the Circa Million VII NFL handicapping contest. I'm on a six-week winning streak, and I'm 8-2 through the first two weeks of the "Third Quarter" contest, which pays down five places, with first getting $150,000. Three of my Week 13 picks include marquee matchups, and the other two are garbage games that'll only be watched by people betting on them.
Circa Million VII NFL Week 12 Card
Listed by order of confidence. First is the most confident, and fifth is the least.
- Dallas Cowboys (+3.5)
- Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5)
- Chicago Bears (-2.5)
- New York Jets (+13.5)
- New Orleans Saints (-2.5)
Week 12 lines for the Circa Million VII NFL handicapping contest. (Courtesy of @CircaSports on X)
Week 11 Recap: 4-1 (31-24, tied for 642nd out of 5,684 entries).
- Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5) ✅
- Carolina Panthers (+3.5) ✅
- Miami Dolphins (-2.5) ✅
- Los Angeles Chargers (-3) ❌
- Chicago Bears (+2.5) ✅
Circa Million VII Pick #1: Indianapolis Colts at Chiefs (-3.5)
As soon as this spread dropped to "Kansas City -3 (-115)" Monday, I jumped all over it. Obviously, I don't love "Chiefs -3.5," but that hook will make the Colts more popular in the contest, which is ultimately a good thing. The Lions are who Indy wants to be, and KC smacked Detroit 30-17 in Week 6. Kansas City was a -2.5 favorite vs. the Lions, who are at least 2.0 points better than Indianapolis.
Pick #2: Philadelphia Eagles at Cowboys (+3.5)
My confidence in Dallas is waning only because I've heard too many people say they were picking/betting the Cowboys this week, and I haven't heard a lot of Philly love. But, basically, Dak Prescott is playing too well to be a +3.5 underdog at home. Dak leads the NFL in QBR and has maybe the best WR tandem in the league: CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens.
NFL sharps say offense is 3-4 times more predictive than defense, and Philadelphia's offense is a nightmare right now. The Eagles are 25th in offensive success rate, per Sūmer Sports, and their fanbase hates first-year offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo. Philly RB Saquon Barkley's production has taken a huge dip this season, and WR A.J. Brown is unhappy about his usage.
Listen: The OutKick Bets Podcast's NFL Week 12 Gambling Think Tank
Finally, Philadelphia All-Pro RT Lane Johnson will be out for the next 4-6 weeks, and it's crazy how much he means to its offense. Since 2016, the Eagles are 11-23 in games Johnson has missed with an injury. Even with Johnson, Dallas has higher win rates in all four line of scrimmage situations this season, according to ESPN.
Pick #3: Pittsburgh Steelers at Bears (-2.5)
My analysis of the Pittsburgh Steelers at Chicago Bears in NFL Week 12 for the OutKick newsletter.
Pick #4: Jets (+13.5) at Baltimore Ravens
My buddy, Jace Evans, a Maryland native, USA TODAY Sports editor, and co-host of the Pod Like A Raven Podcast, told me earlier this week: "It’s not really a mystery to me anymore why the offense is always rusty. He’s [Lamar Jackson] never out there". While Jace is a pessimistic Ravens supporter, which is weird because they are always good, his concerns are valid.
Lamar, TE Isaiah Likely, LT Ronnie Staley, G Andrew Vorhees, and WR Rashod Bateman all missed practice Wednesday. Plus, Jackson hasn't been a running threat this season. Lamar has career lows in yards per game (32.3), carries per game (5.6), and rushing touchdowns (one). It's tough for Baltimore to cover as -13.5 favorites if Jackson isn't using his legs.
New York Jets QB Tyrod Taylor throwing a touchdown vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium in NFL Week 3. (Photo Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images)
Also, QB Tyrod Taylor is replacing QB Justin Fields as the NYJ's starter this week, and Tyrod is a covering machine. Taylor is 34-21 against the spread as a starter in his career. The Jets covered as +6.5 road underdogs with Tyrod under center in a 29-27 loss at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers earlier this season.
Lastly, Ravens MLB Roquan Smith and All-Pro S Kyle Hamilton missed practice Wednesday and were limited Thursday. Smith is the quarterback of Baltimore's defense, and Hamilton is its biggest game-wrecker. The Ravens' defense is 29th in sack rate and 22nd in EPA per rush allowed, per Sūmer Sports.
Pick #5: Atlanta Falcons at Saints (-2.5)
This is a muscle memory bet from when I faded NOLA as a -2.5 home favorite vs. the New York Giants in Week 5. I thought it was stupid for the Saints to be favorites over any NFL team, but they made me look dumb by beating the Giants 26-14. Well, if New Orleans was -2.5 vs. NYG earlier this season, then the Saints should be at least -3.5 favorites over Atlanta this week.
New Orleans Saints DE Cameron Jordan sacks Atlanta Falcons QB Kirk Cousins at Caesars Stadium. (Photo credit: Stephen Lew-Imagn Images)
The Falcons are missing superstar WR Drake London and first-string QB Michael Penix Jr. Besides London, the rest of Atlanta's WR corps and backup QB Kirk Cousins isn't athletic enough to play in the NFL in 2025. Cousins has lost five of his last six starts dating back to last year, beginning with a 20-17 loss in New Orleans. Over that span, Cousins has one touchdown and nine interceptions.
The Saints have played a tougher schedule, and these teams are in the same ballpark in overall efficiency. NOLA's defense is league-average, and the Falcons haven't scored more than 21 points in Cousins' last six starts. Essentially, I don't know how many more times I can fade Cousins and I'm seizing the opportunity.
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