Back The Chicago Bears In A 'Revenge Game' At Washington Commanders On MNF

Unfortunately, the two Monday Night Football games in NFL Week 6 overlap, so you'll need multiview action. The Buffalo Bills at Atlanta Falcons starts at 7:15 p.m. ET, while the Chicago Bears (2-2) at Washington Commanders (3-2) kicks off an hour later. For what it's worth, I gave out Buffalo -4 via OutKick's newsletter. However, I'm more interested in the Bears-Commanders game. 

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One of the worst beats I took last season was Washington's ridiculous game-winning Hail Mary in its 18-15 win vs. Chicago in Week 8. Granted, Washington "won the box score," but how it all played out was soul-crushing. Believe it or not, the 4-2 Bears were -1 road favorites against the 5-2 Commanders last year. 

Like last season, Chicago is coming off a bye. But, unlike last year, Washington's offense is ravaged by injuries. The Commanders will definitely be without WRs Terry McLaurin and Noah Brown, who caught that absurd Hail Mary (Yes, I'm still mad) vs. the Bears last season. Plus, Washington offensive lineman Sam Cosmi and WR Deebo Samuel are doubtful for Monday. 

Prediction: Chicago Bears 27, Washington Commanders 24

My friends give me sh*t for this, but I'm still a "Caleb Williams Guy". One of my first articles after joining OutKick was giving Caleb out as one of my best bets to win the 2022 Heisman Trophy, which he did. Nonetheless, recent breakout seasons from Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, and Daniel Jones inspire me to remain bullish on my Williams stock. 

Furthermore, Chicago's front office did the right thing by hiring an offensive-minded head coach, Ben Johnson, this offseason. After an 0-2 start, the Bears won back-to-back games entering their bye week, and Caleb looks better through four games. Granted, it's a small sample, but Williams has cut his sack rate in half and is processing defenses faster. 

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Even though Johnson was the Detroit Lions' offensive coordinator last season, he has to know how important this game is to his team. Again, Chicago was a slight favorite in Washington last year. Yet, after that brutal loss, the Bears fell apart, losing the next nine games and firing former head coach Matt Eberflus. 

Washington Commanders QB Jayden Daniels throws on the run vs. the Chicago Bears at Northwest Stadium. (Photo credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images)

Just because I'm 400+ words through this preview and haven't mentioned Commanders QB, and 2024-25 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, Jayden Daniels, doesn't mean I don't think he's great. Daniels is the truth, and frankly, I'm less confident in my pre-draft prediction that Caleb would be the best quarterback from the 2024 class. 

That said, Daniels needs to play a 99th-percentile game for Washington to cover -5.5 vs. Chicago Monday. Don't get me wrong, he can do it. But the market isn't factoring in the Commanders' injuries enough. The cluster injuries to their WR corp have to be worth at least 2.0 points. So, would Washington at full strength be -7.5 Monday when Chicago was a slight favorite in this matchup last year? 

The Commanders are a Super Bowl contender when they are healthy, but they aren't. Between Chicago's motivation after that god-awful loss to Washington last season, I make the Bears +3 here. Gimme Chicago +5.5 (down to +4.5), and I'll sprinkle on the moneyline. 

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. Track my NFL 2025-26 bets here.