Buy Stock In Buffalo To Win Super Bowl LVIII On Black Friday
DraftKings Sportsbook is running a Black Friday promotion for the Buffalo Bills. They are +2800 at DraftKings to win Super Bowl 2024. Technically, it's not a "Black Friday" special but this is the best price for Buffalo to win the championship since Josh Allen became an elite QB.
The famous Bill Parcells quote, "You are what your record says you are," doesn't apply to the sports betting world. There are a range of outcomes with every team and odds represent probabilities. At 28-to-1, the Bills have the 9th-best odds to win Super Bowl LVIII. But, there aren't nine better teams in the NFL than Buffalo.
Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen celebrates his 81-yard TD pass to WR Khalil Shakir vs. the New York Jets at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York. (Jamie Germano/Rochester Democrat and Chronicle/USA TODAY NETWORK)
Entering NFL Week 12, the Bills are 6-5 and on the outside looking into the AFC playoffs as an 8-seed. There's a lot of parity in the league and six teams with records between 6-4 and 5-5. Yet, when looking at the statistical profiles of the teams vying for the playoffs, it's clear Buffalo is the best of the bunch.
For instance, the Bills are 5th in net expected points added per play and 6th in net yards per play. They are 2nd in net early-down success rate without turnovers, net pressure rate, and red-zone scoring differential.
BILLS FIRE OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR KEN DORSEY TO TRY SALVAGING INCONSISTENT JOSH ALLEN, OFFENSE
Also, NFL media and sports betting personalities are critical of Buffalo coach Sean McDermott firing offensive coordinator (OC) Ken Dorsey. That said, I side with McDermott in the divorce. He helped the Bills circle the wagons, not Dorsey.
Buffalo Bills head coach Sean McDermott with former OC Ken Dorsey vs. the Miami Dolphins. (Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports)
Prior to hiring McDermott in 2017, Buffalo missed the playoffs from 2000-16. He ended the Bills' playoff drought with a team led by journeyman backup QB Tyrod Taylor. McDermott is 28 games above-.500 and has made the playoffs in six of his seven seasons in Buffalo.
Furthermore, NFL talking heads wanting to replace head coaches with younger OCs has been a thing forever. In Oliver Stone's Any Given Sunday, Al Pacino played the embattled head coach and Aaron Eckhart was his OC who the new owner wanted to take over the team.
In fact, people suggesting McDermott has lost the locker room is propping up Buffalo's Super Bowl odds. The bottom line is McDermott wants to play complimentary football and Dorsey was putting too much on Allen's plate.
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This is something I passionately agree with McDermott about. I've been a long-time Josh Allen fan. Allen was my highest-ranked QB prospect in the 2018 NFL Draft, which included Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, and Lamar Jackson.
The Buffalo Bills still have enough talent to win Super Bowl 2024. (Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports)
However, Dorsey, and to a lesser extent former Bills OC Brian Daboll, treated Allen like he is Peyton Manning and he isn't. Allen is tied with Washington Commanders QB Sam Howell with the most INTs in the NFL at 12.
Almost every Super Bowl-winning QB has to play within a system and Allen isn't above that. Manning needed a defense to win both of his Super Bowls with the Indianapolis Colts and Denver Broncos.
John Elway needed Mike Shanahan to get the Super Bowl monkey off his back. Joe Montana had Bill Walsh. Tom Brady had Bill Belichick. Patrick Mahomes has Andy Reid.
The Bills have a banged-up defense. But, they are 1-6 to the Under in their last seven games since that fateful London game vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars when Buffalo lost LB Matt Milano and CB Tre White.
This tells me the Bills aren't losing games because of their defense. They are losing games because of turnovers, which is a fixable problem. Time will tell if McDermott firing his OC is the fix for Buffalo's turnover woes.
Regardless, with a few tweaks, the Bills can sneak into the playoffs. If Buffalo makes the postseason, that 28-to-1 ticket for the Bills to win an NFL title drops to at least 14-to-1. Meaning, Buffalo's Super Bowl stock is a bargain currently.