Buckle Up For A Packers-49ers Barnburner In The NFL Divisional Round
On one hand, it's square to bet Overs in NFL primetime games. On the other hand, the 7-seed Green Bay Packers at 1-seed San Francisco 49ers matchup has the highest total in the 2024 NFL divisional round. Generally, the "sucker" plays are betting Over the lowest totals and Under the highest totals on the board.
Maybe I'm just lying to myself and trying to justify my OVER 50.5 (-110) wager in Packers-49ers Sunday. For what it's worth, I'd bet this Over until the total reaches 52. San Francisco's offense is almost a "lock" to drop 30 and Green Bay's defense is garbage.
San Francisco 49ers QB Brock Purdy hands the ball off to RB Christian McCaffrey in NFL Week 17 game vs. the Washington Commanders at FedExField in Landover, Maryland. (Scott Taetsch/Getty Images)
The 49ers lead the NFL in points per play, yards per play, and red-zone scoring rate. Five of their offensive players are the best or 2nd-best at their respective positions, per Pro Football Focus.
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This includes QB Brock Purdy, RB Christian McCaffrey, LT Trent Williams, WR Brandon Aiyuk, and TE George Kittle. We didn't even mention WR Deebo Samuel who might be their best weapon. Plus, 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan is an offensive mastermind.
Green Bay's defense is 23rd in expected points added (EPA) per play and 26th in success rate. The Packers are 8-2 Over/Under (O/U) on the road including the playoffs this season. They humiliated the Dallas Cowboys 48-32 in NFL Super Wild Card Weekend. After a slow start, Dallas's offense started to figure Green Bay's defense out. It was just too late.
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However, since Week 9, Packers QB Jordan Love is 2nd behind Dallas Cowboys QB Dak Prescott in EPA/play plus completion percentage over expectation. Basically, Love scores points and throws guys open. Last week, Love threw for 272 yards with 3 TDs and 0 INT vs. the Cowboys.
San Francisco's defense struggles vs. the run and Love excels with playaction. The 49ers are 24th in defensive rushing success rate and Packers RB Aaron Jones is averaging 5.6 yards per rush over his last five games. Love's QB Rating goes from 91.6 in regular dropbacks to 118.3 with playaction.
Green Bay Packers RB Aaron Jones celebrates a TD with QB Jordan Love vs. the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadiu in Arlington, Texas. (Ron Jenkins/Getty Images)
Also, this is the 5th Niners-Packers games since Green Bay hired head coach Matt LaFleur in 2019. Three of their five meetings have combined for at least 51 points. One that might standout in casual bettors' minds is San Francisco's 13-10 win in the Frozen Tundra of Lambeau Field in 2022.
Otherwise, the Packers are 5-1 O/U in the playoffs since 2019. They have a +4.8 O/U margin with an average final score 27.3-25.7 points per game (PPG). Over that span, the 49ers are 11-6 O/U vs. teams with a winning record while averaging 29.4 PPG.