Betting Markets Project A Bad Season For Dallas Cowboys In 2025
The Dallas Cowboys have their longest odds to win the Super Bowl (+5000) and NFC title (+2200) since 2014.
Surprise, surprise, the Dallas Cowboys' hype is exceeding the market's expectations for "America's Team". Their regular-season win total of 7.5 this season is the lowest since 2003, according to SportsOddsHistory.com. Roughly 85% of the action is on Dallas's Over at ESPN BET now that it fell from 8.5 on the opener to the current number, per ESPN's David Purdum.
This should be a red flag for any current ticket-holders for the Cowboys winning 8+ games or people thinking about betting it now. ESPN BET moving Dallas's win total down means it's taking "respected action" from winning bettors on the Under, or copying the line movement of the sharper offshore sportsbooks.
Dallas Cowboys QB Dak Prescott drops back to pass vs. the Atlanta Falcons at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Georgia. (Photo: Brett Davis-Imagn Images)
That doesn't mean an "Over 7.5 wins for the Cowboys" bet won't cash. A good season for a professional bettor is a 55-60% win rate over a large volume of bets. Hence, losing 35-40% of hundreds to thousands of bets is a big number, too. However, there aren't many other arguments for Dallas having a good year.
The NFC East is the best division in the conference, featuring the 2025 Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles and the team they beat in the NFC title game, the Washington Commanders, with QB Jayden Daniels, who is already a superstar. Because their division is so tough, the Cowboys are 22nd in strength of schedule (first is the easiest and 32nd is the toughest), per Warren Sharp.
Dallas Cowboys' 2025 Odds (DraftKings)
- Super Bowl: +5000
- Conference title: +2200
- NFC East winner: +550
- Playoffs: Yes (+180) | No (-220)
- 7.5 wins: Over (-160) | Under (+135)
There is a lot on Dallas QB Dak Prescott's plate. The Cowboys hired a new head coach (Brian Schottenheimer) and offensive coordinator (Klayton Adams) this offseason. Pro Football Focus has Dallas's offensive line ranked 23rd in the preseason, and the Cowboys were 30th in yards per rush in 2024. All this with Prescott coming off his third season-ending injury.
Also, Dak was bad in his eight games last year. Dallas was 3-5, and he ranked 32nd out of 36 qualifying starters in QBR last season and 24th in yards per pass. Granted, the Cowboys acquired WR George Pickens from the Pittsburgh Steelers this offseason to play with All-Pro WR CeeDee Lamb. But they didn't do enough to address their run game, so Prescott will have to carry this offense.
Dallas Cowboys pass rusher Micah Parsons eating turkey with the Madden Thanksgiving MVP trophy after defeating the New York Giants at AT&T Stadium. (Photo: Chris Jones-Imagn Images)
Aside from Prescott playing at an All-Pro level, Dallas will need its defense to be a top-five unit in the NFL to make the playoffs. Fortunately, Cowboys pass rusher Micah Parsons is a "force multiplier" with the second betting choice at DraftKings to win 2025 NFL Defensive Player of the Year (+750). Unfortunately, they finished 31st in points per game allowed last season.
Finally, my betting recommendation for Dallas is to take its 5.5 alternate win total (+280). Six of the Cowboys' final seven games are against playoff teams from last season. Teams fall short of or clear of their regular-season win total by multiple games annually, including Dallas, which has been either Under or Over its win total by at least two games in five straight years.
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