Best Bets For Texans-Patriots, Rams-Bears Sunday In 2026 NFL Divisional Round

My favorite weekend of the NFL season concludes Sunday with two incredible 2026 NFL Divisional Round games. The New England Patriots host the Houston Texans at 3 p.m. ET, then the Los Angeles Rams take on the Chicago Bears at 6:30 p.m. ET. These games feature the two best quarterbacks in the NFL, a top-three defense, and the Cinderella of the playoffs. 

Enjoy it while you can because there are only three more NFL games to bet on after this weekend. Honestly, if the Texans-Patriots and Rams-Bears were being played on a regular-season Sunday, I might not bet them. But I'm gambling (responsibly, of course) on football while I can. With that in mind, here's my action for Sunday in the NFL divisional round. 

2026 NFL Divisional Round Wagers for Sunday 

• New England Patriots -3 (-113), up to -4, vs. Houston Texans via Caesars Sportsbook, risking 1.1 units (u).
• Patriots WR Stefon Diggs OVER 48.5 receiving yards (-114) via FanDuel, risking 0.29u.
• Chicago Bears +4 (-110), down to +3.5, vs. Los Angeles Rams via BetMGM, risking 1.1u.
• Bears RB D'Andre Swift OVER 54.5 rushing yards (-114) via FanDuel, risking 0.29u.

Houston Texans at New England Patriots (-3)

Simply put, I have more faith in the Patriots stopping the Texans than vice versa. Keeping in mind that offense is more predictive than defense, New England is fourth in offensive success rate, and Houston is 28th, according to Sūmer Sports. 

Patriots All-Pro Second-Team QB Drake Maye leads the NFL in EPA/play plus completion percentage over expectation (the go-to quarterback state for nerds) and QBR. Texans QB C.J. Stroud is 13th in EPA/play plus CPOE and 12th in QBR.

New England has two good running backs, including the leader in rushing yards over expectation per carry, per the NFL’s Next Gen Stats, Rhamondre Stevenson, and Maye is fourth among quarterbacks for rushing yards. While Houston is 28th in yards per rush.

The Houston Texans visit the New England Patriots on Sunday in the 2026 NFL Divisional Round. (Photo credit: David Butler II-Imagn Images)

The Patriots' defensive performance in the AFC Wild Card Round was as impressive as Houston’s because of the competition. New England beat the Los Angeles Chargers 16-3, and the Texans beat the Pittsburgh Steelers 30-6. Granted, Houston scored two defensive touchdowns, and LAC’s offensive line is terrible. 

But Houston’s isn’t much better: The Texans are 30th in pass block win rate and 32nd in rush block win rate, per ESPN. Plus, the Patriots sacked Chargers QB Justin Herbert six times and pressured him on 29.5% of his dropbacks. If New England can do that to Herbert, Stroud could be under pressure all game Sunday.

That said, the Patriots are better in three of the four line of scrimmage situations. Considering both head coaches have defensive pedigrees, whoever wins the trenches will be the most important factor in this game. 

Player Prop: Buffalo Bills WR Stefon Diggs OVER 48.5 Receiving Yards 

He's definitely past his prime, but Diggs had a bounce-back season. He suffered a season-ending injury for the Texans last year after just eight games. This season, Diggs had 85 catches for 1,013 yards and four touchdowns. Before getting hurt, the four-time Pro Bowler was on pace for his seventh consecutive 1,000-yard season. 

Also, Diggs just feels like a big-game player. He caught 10 balls for 146 yards against his former team, the Buffalo Bills, on Sunday Night Football in Week 5, and nine balls for 138 yards vs. the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday Night Football in Week 16. I know the Texans have the best defense in the league, but they won't completely shut down Maye, and Diggs is his No. 1 target

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Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears (+4)

Not having money on the Bears last week in their miraculous 31-27 win over the Green Bay Packers will haunt me for years. I’m the biggest shareholder of Caleb Williams stock in the sports betting media and have made good money betting on Chicago this season. 

One of my first articles for OutKick was giving out Caleb to win the 2022 Heisman, which he did, and I correctly predicted Williams would go first in the NFL draft in one of my first appearances on Dan Dakich’s Don’t @ Me.

Despite an underwhelming rookie season, I never sold my stock in Caleb. I held onto my take that he would be a top-five quarterback in the NFL by the end of his rookie contract, and last week was his coming-out party. 

Accuracy on the easy throws is still an issue; Williams’ completion rate was only 50% last week (24-for-48). Yet, Caleb’s crazy jumpman 27-yard pass on 4th-and-8 down nine points with 5:37 remaining was one of the throws of the season.

Furthermore, it looks like Bears first-year head coach Ben Johnson and Williams are building something special. Johnson is one of the best offensive minds in football, and Caleb has one of the highest ceilings at the quarterback position.

Related: BEN JOHNSON VERSUS MATT LAFLEUR FEUD HAS A NEW CHAPTER WRITTEN BY SEAN MCVAY AND THE LOS ANGELES RAMS

Meanwhile, LAR’s defensive struggles down the stretch flew under the radar because Matt Stafford and Puka Nacua were lighting teams up. However, since Thanksgiving, which admittedly is an arbitrary starting point, the Rams are 23rd in defensive EPA/play, according to RBSDM.com. 

Over the season, LAR’s defense was seventh in EPA/play allowed. And it’s not like the Rams were playing elite offenses in those games. They faced the Carolina Panthers (22nd in offensive EPA/play) twice, the Arizona Cardinals (23rd) twice, and the Seattle Seahawks (21st). 

Finally, LAR’s special teams are a nightmare, and that could be their downfall. Pro Football Focus grades their special teams 26th. Between Caleb's and Johnson's magic and the Rams' regressing defense and bad special teams, this line is on the wrong side of -3. 

Player Prop: Bears RB D'Andre Swift OVER 54.5 Rushing Yards 

LAR's rushing defense has been brutal lately, and Johnson has some of the best run-game concepts in the NFL. The Panthers gained 7.2 yards per rush against the Rams in Week 13, the Cardinals 6.9 in Week 14, the Lions 5.5 in Week 15, and the Falcons 5.8 in Week 17. 

More importantly, Swift had a career-best 54.7% rushing success rate this season and averaged 4.9 yards per carry. He's rushed for 55+ yards in nine of his 17 games and exactly 54 yards twice. Lastly, the former Pro Bowler rushed for a season-high 125 yards vs. the Philadelphia Eagles and 98 yards against the Cleveland Browns, two of the best defenses in the NFL. 

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. Track my NFL 2025-26 bets here.