Sleigh The Spread: 2025 NBA Christmas Best Bets For All Five Games

Ho, ho, ho, Merry Christmas. Santa Clark is here to stuff your stockings with 2025 NBA Christmas winners. Or at least that's the plan, since one of my favorite Christmas traditions is betting (responsibly, of course) on all the NBA games. And, considering how bad the NFL slate is this year, you should be interested in betting on Christmas basketball. 

More importantly, I went 3-2 on my Christmas best bets last year. With that in mind, let's get into the spirit and join me in trying to win the money we spent on Christmas presents, food, and booze in the Association. (Also, all the data used is as of Monday, December 22, because I wrote this Tuesday afternoon.) 

2025 NBA Christmas Bet Slip

• OVER 236.5 (-110), up to 238.5, in Cleveland Cavaliers at New York Knicks via DraftKings, risking 1.1 units (u).
• San Antonio Spurs +11.5 (-110), down to +9.5, at Oklahoma City Thunder via FanDuel, risking 1.1u.
• Dallas Mavericks +7.5 (-110), down to +6.5, at Golden State Warriors via BetMGM, risking 1.1u.
• Houston Rockets -4 (-110), up to -5, at Los Angeles Lakers via FanDuel, risking 1.1u.
• Minnesota +5 (-112), down to +4, at Denver Nuggets via FanDuel, risking 1.12u.

OVER 236.5 in Cleveland Cavaliers at New York Knicks 

Christmas at Madison Square Garden should be a shootout. The Knicks score 5.2 more points per game (PPG) at home — 122.9-117.7 — and they’ve been scorching in December, shooting 50%+ from the field and 40%+ from behind the arc. Over the last two weeks, NYK is 20th in defensive rating, and Cleveland is 28th, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG). 

Cleveland’s road profile is even more "let it fly". The Cavs score 6.3 more PPG on the road (123.1-116.8), and they also allow 5.0 more PPG (120.5-115.5). Their eFG% in December, which blends twos and threes, is 11 percentage points higher than any other month. 

The New York Knicks host the Cleveland Cavaliers at Madison Square Garden as part of a five-game NBA Christmas 2025 card. (Photo credit: Brad Penner-Imagn Images)

Also, New York beat Cleveland 119-111 on a 229-point total in their first meeting this season. But the Cavaliers-Knicks had a 102.6 pace, Cavs big Evan Mobley played in that game, and PG Darius Garland didn’t. The Knicks were also missing big Mitchell Robinson and wing Josh Hart. 

Pace is the most important thing for NBA totals, and for context, a 102.6 pace would be the third-fastest in the Association if it were a team. Mobley is the reigning NBA Defensive Player of the Year, and Garland is a two-time All-Star due to his offensive skills and lights-out shooting. Per CTG, NYK’s offense improves, and its defense weakens when Robinson and Hart are on the floor.

Prediction: Knicks 125, Cavaliers 118

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San Antonio Spurs (+11.5) at Oklahoma City Thunder 

San Antonio's 111-109 win vs. Oklahoma City in the semifinals of the NBA Cup wasn't a fluke; the Spurs outplayed the Thunder that day. The Spurs won three of the "four factors" and three of the four quarters. They are one of the few teams athletic enough to keep up with OKC, and Victor Wembanyama is the best player on the floor and loves the challenge of beating the reigning NBA champs. 

Furthermore, San Antonio should dominate Oklahoma City on the boards: The Spurs are fourth in rebounding rate, and the Thunder are 19th. San Antonio has been playing better lately. Over the past two weeks, the Spurs are 5-0 and third in spread differential (+12.5), not including the NBA Cup title game, while OKC is 3-2 and 11th in spread differential (+3.1), per CTG. 

One of the keys to Oklahoma City's success is it usually wins the free-throw battle. However, San Antonio has a higher free-throw attempt rate on both sides of the floor, wing Stephon Castle is one of the better perimeter defenders in the NBA, and Wemby is the best defensive big in basketball. I.e., it's easier to avoid fouling if you have Wemby protecting the paint. 

Prediction: Thunder 117, Spurs 111

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Dallas Mavericks (+7.5) at Golden State Warriors 

I'm kind of kidding, and I'm kind of not when I say this, but this is a Revenge Game for Dallas backup combo guard D'Angelo Russell and Klay Thompson, both of whom played for Golden State and have sucked this season. Yet, Klay and Russell shoot enough 3-pointers, and the Mavs can beat the Warriors if those guys have a good shooting night. 

I'm a "Cooper Flagg Guy," which isn't a hot take, considering he was the first pick in this year's draft. But the Mavericks are playing on Christmas because Flagg is the most hyped No. 1 overall pick, behind Wemby, since LeBron, and Flagg can hoop. After a shaky start, Flagg has been ballin' this month: He is averaging 23.1 PPG on 50.7% shooting in December. 

Dallas leads the NBA in 3-pointers allowed per game and defensive 3-point percentage. This could be a difference-maker vs. Steph Curry and the Warriors, who live and die by the three. Plus, the Mavericks will be able to get back on defense because Golden State doesn't get out in transition often. 

Don't sleep on Anthony Davis either. He's the best big in this game by a wide margin, with all due respect for Draymond Green. AD is just too long and skilled for Draymond, and as long as he doesn't get hurt, he should crush Golden State's frontcourt. 

Prediction: Warriors 116, Mavericks 114

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Houston Rockets at Los Angeles Lakers 

These teams have misleading records in opposite ways. Houston has the worst win differential in the NBA based on net efficiency, and LAL has the best, according to CTG. Meaning, the Rockets have nearly three fewer wins than they should, and the Lakers have more than four wins than they should. 

Houston is second in 3-point shooting percentage and should get a lot of good looks from three in this game because LAL needs to pack the paint to protect their weak frontcourt from Rockets big Alperen Şengün, one of the most physical bigs in the NBA. Let's be honest, Lakers C Deandre Ayton is soft, and LeBron is banging down low with Şengün. 

In fact, LAL is more of a finesse team that relies on jump shooting and plays iso-ball, whereas Houston gets putbacks by crashing the offensive glass and attacks the paint. That said, rebounding is stickier than shooting because teams can have poor shooting nights regardless of how their opponent is defending. 

Prediction: Rockets 119, Lakers 109

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Minnesota Timberwolves (+5) at Denver Nuggets 

I'd be interested in Minnesota at this price if Denver were at full strength. But the Nuggets are missing two starters and their best defensive players, forward Aaron Gordon and wing Christian Braun, so I love the T-Wolves. They knocked the Nuggets out of the playoffs a couple of years ago and beat them in both visits to Denver last season. 

Edwards and Timberwolves wing Jaden McDaniels are two of the best on-ball defenders in the NBA, and can take their turns guarding Nuggets PG Jamal Murray. Ant-Man should have an easier time on the offensive end without Gordon and Braun out there. 

Denver Nuggets PG Jamal Murray posting up Minnesota Timberwolves SG Anthony Edwardsat Target Center. (Photo Credit: Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images)

Minnesota big Rudy Gobert is still a top-three defensive center in basketball. Besides Wemby, Gobert is probably the guy you'd want most on your team if you're playing Nikola Jokić. Gordon is the perfect guy to defend T-Wolves forward Julius Randle, but he is out injured. Randle likes to attack the basket, and Jokic is an average to below-average rim protector. 

Finally, the Nuggets don't shoot enough 3-pointers to make Minnesota's defense work, and the Timberwolves are one of the best 3-point shooting teams on both sides of the court. 

Prediction: Timberwolves 116, Nuggets 113

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