3 Best Bets For The NBA Regular-Season Finale Sunday
At first, I was annoyed that the NBA’s regular-season finale coincided with Sunday at The Masters. But, how many people are NBA and golf fans? Probably not many. And, as someone with a 3-TV setup, I love that all 30 NBA teams play Sunday afternoon and Sunday. I can watch a Masters multicast on one TV with an NBA multicast on another and Armageddon, Top Gun: Maverick, or South Park on the other.
Also, I’m going on a much-needed mini-heater to end my NBA regular season betting. I’m 9-3 this week and added +5.17 units (u) to my bankroll. So that's good. However, entering Sunday, I’m an atrocious 191-194-2 and embarrassingly -21.79u in NBA 2023-24. My "closing line value" is +0.6% with a -5.3% return on investment. Don’t worry. I’ll get in the lab for the playoffs with the expectation of breaking even.
With that in mind, let’s close out the NBA regular season on a winning note.
NBA Betting Card: Sunday, April 14th
The odds chosen are the best available at the time of writing.
Milwaukee Bucks at Orlando Magic -6 (-110), 1 p.m. ET
Since there is so much confusion surrounding who will and who will not play Sunday, the sportsbooks took a while to release all the lines. For example, the Magic, Indiana Pacers, Philadelphia 76ers, and Miami Heat could all finish anywhere from 5th to 8th in the Eastern Conference. The 7th and 8th place teams meet in the 1st postseason play-in game.
This is my excuse for not giving this play out earlier (it's 12:30 p.m. ET at the time of my writing this). However, I did give out the play on my Twitter (or "X", whatever), @Geoffery_Clark, so I'm counting this against my 2023-24 NBA betting record.
I was on the wrong side of this game earlier this week when I bet Orlando as -1.5 road favorites in Milwaukee (another bet given out on Twitter). The Magic lost to the Bucks 117-99 without Giannis Antetokounmpo and SF Khris Middleton Wednesday. Yet, Orlando was without SG Franz Wagner, who's 3rd on the team in on/off net rating and the 2nd-leading scorer.
Furthermore, the Magic are much better in their home gym. They are 20-4 straight up (SU) and 18-6 vs. the spread at home this season with a +12.2 scoring margin. The Magic smacked the Bucks 112-97 in their 1st meeting in Orlando in November despite Giannis scoring 35 points. Finally, it's tough to beat the same team twice in one week in the NBA. I'm betting the Magic will make the adjustments needed and win by margin.
Bet 1.1u on Orlando -6 (-110) at Caesars. The Magic are playable up to -7.
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Houston Rockets (-2.5) at Los Angeles Clippers, 3:30 p.m. ET
You can tell by Houston being road favorites in LA that the Clippers will probably sit their starters Sunday because they clinched the 4-seed for the Western Conference playoffs. The Clippers have a 9-game winning streak against the Rockets. I made some money on Houston Friday when I bet it as -6.5 road favorites in a 116-108 win at the Portland Trail Blazers.
I'm applying the same logic to this game: The Rockets are playing hard despite being out of playoff contention. The Clippers have been up-and-down over the last month, even when the starters have played. Since March 1st, LAC is 14-10 SU with a -3.6 spread differential, which ranks 27th, per CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG). Houston is 15-7 SU over that span with a +3.3 spread margin (ranked 4th).
Also, the Clippers historically play poorly in day games. I worked for the Clippers in 2012, live in Long Beach, California, and one of my buddies is a lifelong Clippers fan. I pay more attention to Clippers' basketball than 99% of NBA fans. Take my word for it, the Clippers suck in the afternoon. Perhaps that changes with role guys getting more playing time Sunday. Regardless, they'll be facing a Rockets team with a lot more talent.
Houston SG Jalen Green bounced back from a rough start to the season and he looks like a legit building block. Post-All-Star break, Green is averaging 23.1 points per game. Green has improved his shooting percentages from everywhere on the floor. Like me, Houston will finish its regular season on a high and crush the Clippers. With my luck, watch Green miss Sunday's game.
Bet 1.1u on the Rockets -2.5 (-110) at DraftKings. Houston is bet-able up to -4 if Jalen Green plays.
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Los Angeles Lakers (+3) at New Orleans Pelicans, 3:30 p.m. ET
We should get 100% effort from both teams Sunday, which is rare for an NBA regular-season game nowadays. The Lakers can clinch the 8-seed out West with a win, guaranteeing them at least two postseason play-in games. The Pelicans will be the 6-seed and avoid the play-in with a win over LAL.
I'll take the championship pedigree of LeBron James and Anthony Davis over the inexperienced New Orleans missing its best player, Brandon Ingram. It seems like every time I bet the Pelicans in a big game, they let me down. Los Angeles blasted a fully healthy NOLA team 133-89 in the 2023 NBA In-Season Tournament Semifinals. It was a vintage LeBron game.
Los Angeles Lakers SF LeBron James goes to the rack on the New Orleans Pelicans in the 2023 NBA In-Season Tournament Semifinal at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. (Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports)
James scored a game-high 30 points on 9-for-12 shooting (8-for-8 from the foul line) and 8 assists. Ingram and New Orleans SG C.J. McCollum each scored just 9 points. Davis makes it tough for Zion Williamson and Pelicans C Jonas Valančiūnas to do anything in the paint. AD grabbed a game-high 15 rebounds, blocked two shots, and had two steals in that game.
Finally, the Lakers have owned the Pelicans over the past two seasons. Los Angeles is 5-2 SU with a +10.3 scoring margin vs. New Orleans since 2022. Davis has been a monster in those Lakers-Pelicans games. AD is averaging 24.7 points, 12.6 rebounds, and 2.3 blocks per game against NOLA in the last two seasons.
Bet 1.1u on the Lakers +3 (-110) at FanDuel. Give me the Lakers down to +2.
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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll be adding bets to my NBA 2023-24 betting record via X all season.