NBA Friday 4-Pack Of Best Bets Includes Magic-76ers, Suns-Kings
It's the penultimate day of the NBA 2023-24 regular season and the playoffs cannot come soon enough. First of all, the NBA regular season sucks because of load management and a lack of urgency. Second, I'm getting torched this season betting on the Association and I need the postseason to make a rally.
All 30 NBA teams play Friday, which I don't think we've seen this season. There's an off-day tomorrow and then the regular season wraps up Sunday. Since there are so many games Friday and I'm just sitting around watching the Masters, I figured "Why not lose more money on the NBA"?
NBA Betting Card: Friday, April 12th
The odds chosen are the best available at the time of writing.
Orlando Magic at Philadelphia 76ers (-7.5), 7 p.m. ET
I locked in a bet on the Sixers -7.5 (-110) at FanDuel this morning because Joel Embiid is on the injury report as "questionable" and if he gets ruled in, Philly’s spread will bump up to -8 or higher.
I’m gambling on Embiid playing Friday since the 76ers are the 7-seed in the Eastern Conference and can avoid the postseason play-in tournament with a win over the Magic and the Indiana Pacers losing at the Cleveland Cavaliers. More importantly, Philadelphia is trending up as the regular season concludes and owns Orlando.
Philadelphia 76ers C Joel Embiid posts up Orlando Magic C Goga Bitadze at KIA Center in Florida. (Jeremy Reper-USA TODAY Sports)
The 76ers are on a 6-game winning streak and 9-1 against the spread over their last 10 games. They are 13-1 straight up and 10-4 ATS in their last 14 meetings with the Magic. Embiid returned from injury April 2nd. Since then, Embiid is scoring 30.0 PPG on 51.4% shooting and getting 10.0 free throw attempts per game.
Orlando has gotten smacked in three of its past four games entering Friday. The Magic lost by 18 to a Giannis- and Middleton-less Milwaukee Bucks, 12 to the Houston Rockets with nothing to play for, and 11 to the god-awful Charlotte Hornets. All of these losses were on the road.
But, so is this game and the 76ers are 13-1 straight up (SU) vs. the Magic in their last 14 meetings, including twice this season and four consecutive double-digit wins. Embiid played in one of those games and scored 36 points on 54.5% shooting.
Bet 1.1u on the Sixers -7.5 (-110) at FanDuel. Give me Philly up to -8.
_____________________________
OVER 218 in Toronto Raptors at Miami Heat, 8 p.m. ET
Miami is 8-2 Over/Under (O/U) in the last 10 games and Toronto is 6-2 O/U in the last eight. But, both teams went Under the total in their previous games, so we can fade the recent results. The Raptors lost at the Brooklyn Nets 106-102 and the Heat got crushed 111-92 by the Dallas Mavericks Wednesday.
Also, Raptors wing R.J. Barrett and C Kelly Olynyk are expected to start Friday after sitting Wednesday. Barrett is their 2nd-leading scorer, averaging 21.3 points per game (PPG). Toronto’s effective field goal shooting improves by 3.1% when Olynyk is on the floor, per CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).
Furthermore, the Raptors are 29th in non-garbage time defensive efficiency since March 1st and 3rd in Pace. The Heat should be okay with speeding the tempo up. They are 4th in offensive rating in the fastbreak since last month, according to CTG.
Miami Heat SG Tyler Herro drives to the basket on New Orleans Pelicans SF Trey Murphy III at Smoothie King Center in Louisiana. (Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports)
Miami SG Tyler Herro is back in the lineup and I love his game. Herro can shoot from anywhere on the floor, create his own look, and run the pick-and-roll. He is tied with Jimmy Butler for the Heat’s leading scorer at 21.0 PPG and leads the team in 3-pointers per game (3.1).
Granted, Miami will do more work for our Over. However, between Toronto’s tempo and terrible defense, the Raptors will do their part too.
Bet 1.1u on the OVER 218 in Raptors-Heat (-110) at Caesars. The Over is bet-able up to 219.
_____________________________
Houston Rockets (-6.5) at Portland Trail Blazers, 10 p.m. ET
We are getting a cheap price on the Rockets. They are in the 2nd of a back-to-back (B2B) after losing 124-121 at the Utah Jazz Thursday as -11.5 road favorites. Houston is 1-6 SU over the last seven games and 2-5 ATS. Yet, by the eye test, the Rockets are still playing hard under 1st-year head coach Ime Udoka despite being eliminated from playoff contention.
Over the last seven games, Houston is allowing the 6th-fewest wide-open 3-point shots per game. "Closing out on threes" is an example of the Rockets still playing hard. Besides Utah, Houston’s other five losses over the last seven games are to the Mavs (twice), Minnesota Timberwolves, Heat, and Golden State Warriors.
Those teams have something to play for. Whereas the Trail Blazers have been awful all season. Portland's pathetic effort will most likely cost head coach, and Basketball Hall of Fame Class of 2024 inductee, Chauncey Billups his job. Even though the Jazz has thrown in the towel this season, they aren’t five points worse than the Trail Blazers.
The Rockets are 2-1 SU and ATS vs. the Trail Blazers this season with two straight double-digit victories entering Friday. Portland upset Houston 137-131 in overtime on the road in their 1st meeting this season. But, the Blazers’ three leading scorers from that game, PF Jerami Grant, SG Anfernee Simons, and PG Malcolm Brogdon, will most likely sit Friday.
Bet 1.1u on the Rockets -6.5 (-110) at DraftKings. Houston is playable up to -8.
_____________________________
UNDER 224 in Phoenix Suns at Sacramento Kings, 10:30 p.m. ET
This is the 5th Suns-Kings game this season. They split are 2-2 SU in their season series, but Sacramento is 3-1 ATS. That said, I’m liking the Under Friday since this game has playoff implications for both teams.
Phoenix fell into the 7-seed out West and will participate in the postseason play-in tournament. Sactown is in a three-way tie with the Warriors and Los Angeles Lakers for the 8-seed out West and owns the tiebreaker. The 8-seed is guaranteed at least two games in the play-in tourney.
There are several Under-friendly trends for this game. Post-All-Star break, the Suns are 6-11 O/U vs. teams above-.500 and the Kings are 5-12 O/U with a -4.7 O/U differential against winning teams. In division games, Phoenix is 7-10 O/U with a -5.3 margin on the total and Sacramento is 6-10 O/U.
Phoenix Suns SG Devin Booker drives to the point on Sacramento Kings SG Keon Ellis at Footprint Center in Arizona. (Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports)
The Kings are in the 2nd of a B2B and are 5-9 O/U in those spots with a -4.6 differential. As underdogs, Sacramento is 9-17-1 O/U with a -5.1 margin on the total. There are basketball reasons for liking the Under as well.
The Suns are 21st in offensive efficiency over the past two weeks, per CTG, and the Kings are missing two SGs, Kevin Huerter and Malik Monk. Huerter is a great floor spacer and a sneaky good passer. Malik is a microwave scorer off the bench, who was the favorite to win NBA Sixth Man of the Year pre-injury.
Regardless, these teams have more of an offensive identity and the public is going to think this total is too low.
Bet 1.1u on the UNDER 224 in Kings-Suns (-110) at FanDuel.
_____________________________
Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll be adding bets to my NBA 2023-24 betting record via X all season.