Bank On Blue Jays, Brewers Cashing In MLB Friday
This ping pong nonsense between winning and losing went down again for me Tuesday in MLB. I went 1-2 on my Tuesday Trifecta betting piece. I blame New York Yankees general manager Brian Cashman.
Of course I bet on my own team. And of course the Yankees took a 5-1 loss in a 3-game sweep vs. the lowly Los Angeles Angels earlier this week. Cashman built this crappy NYY roster that's last place in the AL East as of July 21st.
To be fair, it's my fault for betting the slumping Yankees. No one held a gun to my head. As a result of my 1-2 Tuesday, my MLB record fell to 56-59 and my bankroll is -9.15 units (u). Regardless, I'm hopping back in the action for some ...
MLB Gambling Friday Fun
Atlanta Braves (62-33) at Milwaukee Brewers (54-43)
The Braves-Brewers betting splits caught my eye. According to Pregame.com, more than 60% of the action is on Atlanta as noon ET Friday. But, the Braves have gone -135 down to the current number (-120).
Because I can reverse engineer the line movement, I'm willing to follow it. The Brewers are 6-1 since the All-Star game and their bullpen has a 0.00 ERA. Plus, Milwaukee has the better starting pitcher on the mound Tuesday.
Braves starting RHP Mike Soroka (1-1, 5.40 ERA) returned to the diamond after missing 2021-22 and most of 2022 with injuries. Soroka’s 6.68 FIP “fielding independent pitching”) is lower than his ERA, which suggests he’s been lucky thus far.
Brewers RHP Freddy Peralta (6-7, 4.41 ERA) is FanGraphs’ 14th-highest power-ranked pitcher over the last two weeks. Peralta is 16th among qualified starters in FanGraphs' "Stuff+".
According to Statcast, Peralta has a 32.2% K-rate, a .148 opposing batting average, and .326 expected slugging percentage in 59 plate appearances vs. active Atlanta hitters.
Finally, Milwaukee has played well against Atlanta in recent seasons. This is the 1st Braves-Brewers series of 2023. They are tied 6-6 in their head-to-head series since 2021. Milwaukee has one of the few rosters that ALMOST stacks up with Atlanta's.
MLB BET #1: 1u on the Brewers (+100) ML at DraftKings
Toronto Blue Jays (54-43) at Seattle Mariners (48-48)
Betting odds for the Blue Jays-Mariners in MLB Friday, July 21st from DraftKings.
Blue Jays LHP Yusei Kikuchi (7-3, 4.19 ERA) started his career in Seattle in 2019 and is familiar with T-Mobile Park. More importantly, Kikuchi has a career-best ERA and WHIP this season.
Also, Mariners struggle against left-handed pitching. They have a losing record against lefty starters. Plus, Seattle's lineup is tied for 18th in wRC+ vs. lefties, 24th in wOBA, and 26th in BB/K rate, per FanGraphs.
Toronto's outfield celebrates defeating the Arizona Diamondbacks at the Rogers Centre in Toronto. (Mark Blinch/Getty Images)
Toronto's lineup on the other hand mashes right-handed pitching. The Blue Jays rank 7th in wRC+ vs. righties, 9th in wOBA, and 5th in hard-hit rate. Since the All-Star break, Toronto's lineup 6th in wRC+ while the Mariners are 21st.
Lastly, the Blue Jays play in by far the toughest division in baseball, the AL East. The Mariners have a losing record vs. every other AL East team. Toronto is an MLB-best 47-23 vs. non-division foes this season.
MLB BET #2: 1.05u on the Blue Jays (-105) ML at DraftKings
Toronto's ML odds vs. the Seattle Mariners in MLB Friday as of 12:15 p.m. ET.