Geoff Clark
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All 30 MLB teams are in action Tuesday. Even though I’ve flirted with retirement from betting baseball in 2023, there is nothing else going on in sports. They say the “idle mind is the devil’s playground” and my boredom has led to a trio of MLB wagers.
I’ll be in attendance for the Yankees-Angels tilt Tuesday so I’ll have action on that game. However, I’m also looking to fade two of MLB’s worst starters and back baseball’s best ball club to complete my trifecta.
My 2023 MLB betting record sits at 55-58 and my bankroll is -6.95 units (u) heading into my …
MLB Tuesday Best Bets
- Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook.
San Diego Padres (44-50) at Toronto Blue Jays (53-41)
- First pitch: 7:07 p.m. ET.
- Ballpark: Rogers Centre in Toronto.
After just one good start, I’m not convinced in Blue Jays RHP Alex Manoah (2-7, 5.91 ERA). Manoah spent a month in the minor leagues from June 5 to July 7 because of an atrocious start to 2023.
Manoah returned right before the All-Star break. He gave up just 1 ER over 6 IP on 5 H with a 8/0 K/BB rate in Toronto’s 12-2 win vs. the Detroit Tigers July 7.
According to Statcast, Manoah grades in the 26th percentile or worse in hard-hit rate, whiff rate, K%, BB%, and expected slugging percentage.
Plus, Manoah’s 5.97 FIP (“fielding independent pitching”) is slightly higher than his ERA. I.e. Manoah hasn’t been “unlucky,” he’s been awful.
Padres RHP Joe Musgrove (8-2,3.29 ERA) is actually having a better season thus far than he did last year when he made the MLB All-Star Game.
Musgrove grades in the 86th percentile or better in exit velocity, hard-hit rate, chase rate, and BB% this season, per Statcast. Since 2021, the Padres are 9-4 straight up (SU) as road favorites when Musgrove starts and 3-1 SU this season with a +3.5 SU margin.
Finally, I’d be lying if I said “I’m not following line movement”. Padres-Blue Jays opened with both teams priced at -110 but San Diego’s moneyline is up to -130 at most shops.
MLB BET #1: 1.3u on the Padres (-130) ML at DraftKings
Arizona Diamondbacks (52-42) at Atlanta Braves (61-31)
- First pitch: 7:20 p.m. ET.
- Ballpark: Truist Park in Atlanta
There isn’t much analysis needed for this handicap. Atlanta is the best team in baseball. The Braves have a 3-phase edge over the D’Backs Tuesday in starting and relief pitching and hitting.
Arizona gives RHP Zach Davies (1-5, 6.37 ERA) the nod Tuesday and he is one of the worst starters in MLB. Davies pitches to contact and the Braves have the highest hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching in baseball.
Three of Atlanta’s one-through-four hitters are in the top-11 of FanGraphs’ power rankings. Braves OF Ronald Acuna Jr. is a massive favorite to win the 2023 NL MVP and 1B Matt Olson is one of the best power-hitters in baseball.
Since June, the Braves are 14-3 SU and 13-4 run line (RL) as home favorites against righty starters. Atlanta’s RL in those spots has a + 47.4% return on investment. The Braves are winning those games 7-1.3.5 on average.
MLB BET #2: 1.1u on the Braves -1.5 (-110) RL at DraftKings
New York Yankees (50-45) at Los Angeles Angels (47-48)
- First pitch: 9:38 p.m. ET.
- Ballpark: Angel Stadium in Anaheim.
- Series: Angels lead 1-0.
This is an “obligatory bet” I’m a NY-transplant living in Long Beach, Calif., and I go see the Yankees whenever they visit the Angels in Anaheim. Since I’ll be at Angel Stadium on Tuesday, I’m betting the Yankees regardless of their recent form.
NYY have lost three of their past four series, split the four-game series they didn’t lose and are 3-7 over their last 10 games. The Angels beat the Yankees 4-3 in the series opener in extra innings.
SHOHEI OHTANI OWNS YANKEES WITH BAT FLIP, SO IS IT TIME FOR YANKEES TO OWN HIM?
But, the Angels are playing as badly as the Yankees. LAA is 3-7 over their last 10 games as well and 6-14 in the last 20. Angels LHP Patrick Sandoval (4-7, 4.41 ERA) gets the start Tuesday and is 1-4 in his last seven starts with a 5.70 ERA.
Yankees’ Tuesday starter, RHP Domingo German (5-5, 4.32 ERA), has pitched well since his perfect game against the Oakland Athletics at the end of June. German has only allowed 3 ER in his last two starts over 10.1 IP with a 14/3 K/BB rate.
NYY’s bullpen has blown some games recently but LAA’s bullpen is down-right terrible. The Angels’ relievers rank 27th in both FIP and WAR, 24th in HR/9 rate and 29th in hard-hit rate, per FanGraphs.
Ultimately, this Yankees-Angels handicap could’ve been summed up with, “I’m fan-boy betting my childhood team.”
MLB BET #3: 1.1u on the Yankees (-110) ML at DraftKings
Listen to the ‘OutKick Bets with Geoff Clark’ podcast HERE.
