Adding To The 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational Bet Slip Entering Saturday

Technically, the cut hasn't been made at the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill Club & Lodge in Orlando, Florida. But, we have a good idea of who will be playing on the weekend and DraftKings Sportsbook has Round 3 betting odds.

Kurt Kitayama (World No. 46) is the 2-stroke leader shooting a 9-under through the 1st 36 holes. The three 2022 non-LIV Tour major winners are in the top-10 of the Arnold Palmer leaderboard and Jon Rahm (No. 1) and Rory McIlroy (No. 3) will make the cut.

Arnold Palmer Invitational 2023 Leaderboard (Top-10)

Notable golfers that missed the cut at the Arnold Palmer include Collin Morikawa (No. 10), Sam Burns (No. 14), Billy Horschel (No. 20), and Hideki Matsuyama (No. 22).

The 1st two golfers were on my bet slip and I'm down -2.75 UNITS with two rounds left. I still have a few golfers in the mix and there is a golfer that I'm adding to my Arnold Palmer card.

DraftKings Betting Odds entering Saturday (Top-10)

Arnold Palmer bets added after nearly 36 holes

Matthew Fitzpatrick (+1200) & Top-5 (+230)

The 2022 U.S. Open champion is 5-under through 36 holes after shooting 3-under in Round 2 Friday. Fitzpatrick (No. 13) is tied for 5th, four strokes behind Kitayama who no one believes will actually win this tourney.

But, Fitzpatrick is striking the hell out of the ball and obviously excels on tough tracks since he's the reigning U.S. Open champion. He has finished at least T10 in the last four Arnold Palmers with a T2 in 2019.

Also, according to, Fitzpatrick is 2nd in Strokes Gained (SG): Tee-to-Green (T2G) behind Jordan Spieth (No. 17) who is 2nd at the Arnold Palmer.

Fitzpatrick is the only golfer in the top-five of SG: T2G at the Arnold Palmer that has lost strokes putting. His putting should turn around because he's picked up strokes putting in all eight of his previous APIs.

The other golfers in the top-five of SG: T2G at the API is Kitayama, Corey Conners (No. 40), and Xander Schauffele (No. 6). Kitayama is the 36-hole leader at the Arnie Palmer and Conners and Schauffele are T3.

There was hesitation by a lot of the golf talking heads to pick Fitzpatrick because he reportedly played through at neck injury at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am in the beginning of February.

Fitzpatrick's +1400 odds to win the API, based on how well he is playing, are disrespectful. He has the 8th-best odds but Data Golf gives him the 6th-best odds of winning. I agree with Data Golf more than the betting market.

Bet 0.25u on Fitzpatrick to win (+1400) and 0.5u to finish Top-5 (+230) at DraftKings Sportsbook

Keith Mitchell (1u: -120) > Rickie Fowler in Round 3

Pre-tournament, Mitchell was 20th in my Arnold Palmer Invitational power rankings and Fowler was 33rd. Mitchell is striking the ball better than Fowler through the 1st two rounds and Fowler is being saved by his putter.

Per Data Golf, Fowler is +1.51 SG: Putting at the Arnold Palmer and +1.52 SG: Around-the-Green (ARG) whereas Mitchell is -0.27 SG: Putting currently. All of which is slightly flukey.

Mitchell is +2.62 SG: T2G through 36 holes at Bay Hill and Fowler is just +0.84 SG: T2G. Over their last 50 rounds before the API began, Mitchell out-ranks Fowler in SG: Ball-Striking and Par 4 scoring.

Lastly, Mitchell putts better than Fowler on Bermuda greens and firm and fast greens. Mitchell has more total SG at Bay Hill and at the comp courses pulled too.

Bet 1u on Keith Mitchell to beat Rickie Fowler in Round 3 (-120) at DraftKings

My Arnold Palmer Invitational bet slip (-2.75 units)



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