Best Bets For Both 'Must-Win' Games In The 2025 NBA Play-In Tournament Friday

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Friday is the last day of this 2025 NBA Play-In Tournament crap. Besides the Golden State Warriors, no one cares about the other seven play-in teams. The winners of both games Friday will be crushed by the first-place Cleveland Cavaliers in the first round of the Eastern Conference playoffs and the 1-seed Oklahoma City Thunder out West. 

LISTEN: OutKick Bets Podcast's 2025 NBA Play-In, Playoffs' First Round Preview Ft. David Troy & MacKenzie Rivers

However, as an NBA fan and basketball betting sicko, this play-in tourney gives me more product to gamble on, which I love. I mean, why wouldn't I? I'm only down 19.37 units (u) this season. Nevertheless, I plan on getting all of it back in the 2025 NBA Playoffs, with interest. 

2025 NBA Play-In Tournament Betting Card: April 18

The odds are the best available at the time of writing. 

  • Miami Heat moneyline (-102), up to -125, at Atlanta Hawks via FanDuel, risking 2.04 units (u).
  • Dallas Mavericks +6.5 (-110), down to +5, at Memphis Grizzlies via Fanatics Sportsbooks, risking 1.1u.
  • "Sprinkling" a 0.4u-wager on Dallas Mavericks moneyline (+220) via DraftKings.

Miami Heat (-102) at Atlanta Hawks

As I posted on X Thursday morning, Miami's moneyline is my first two-unit "banger bet" of the NBA season. I locked in that play after publicizing it and discussing it on the recent OutKick Bets Podcast. Look at me (I know you can't, just pretend): There is no f*cking chance Atlanta wins this game. The Heat have the two best players on the floor: Combo guard Tyler Herro and PF Bam Adebayo. 

Miami Heat SG Tyler Herro cramming it against the Chicago Bulls in the 2025 NBA Play-In Tournament Wednesday. (Photo credit: David Banks-Imagn Images)

Miami Heat SG Tyler Herro cramming it against the Chicago Bulls in the 2025 NBA Play-In Tournament Wednesday. (Photo credit: David Banks-Imagn Images)

Hawks PG Trae Young isn't even the best player on their roster. That distinction goes to wing Jalen Johnson, who suffered a season-ending injury in January. Bam squashes Trae's pick-and-roll bullsh*t, and Miami PG Davion Mitchell, aka Off Night, is among the best on-ball defenders in the NBA. Mitchell does what Heat combo guard Terry Rozier is supposed to do.  

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Furthermore, the Heat has low-key played well at the end of the regular season. They were fifth in net rating over the last 15 games and second in spread differential (+7.3) over the previous two weeks, per CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG). Lastly, 3-pointers are the end all be all of basketball nowadays and Miami is stacked with sharpshooters, including Herro, Mitchell, and SG Alec Burks.  

Prediction: Heat 113, Hawks 109

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Dallas Mavericks (+6.5) at Memphis Grizzlies 

I hit on Dallas's and Memphis's first play-in tourney games, so I feel like I have a good read on these teams. The Mavs +5 and moneyline in their 120-106 win vs. the Sacramento Kings Wednesday, and the Over 228.5 in the Grizzlies' 121-116 loss to Golden State for the Western Conference's 7-seed Tuesday. 

That said, Mavericks big Anthony Davis is the best player on the floor and Dallas negates what Memphis likes to do, which is crash the glass and attack the paint. The Mavs have four solid bigs, who do different things, such as AD, PF P.J. Washington, and centers Dereck Lively and Daniel Gafford. 

Those guys make it tough for Memphis PG Ja Morant to go to the rack and for his teammates to grab offensive rebounds. Plus, the Grizzlies aren't a good enough 3-point shooting team to pull Dallas's bigs out of the paint. Memphis shoots worse when Ja and PF Jaren Jackson Jr. are on the floor, yet they both need to play for the Grizzlies to win Friday. 

Also, something about the Mavericks making the playoffs after trading Luka Dončić to the LA Lakers and pissing off their entire fanbase feels right. In addition, Memphis has no business making the postseason after firing former head coach Taylor Jenkins with nine games left in the regular season. Both teams are a joke, but at least the Mavs have AD and Klay Thompson. 

Prediction: Mavericks 111, Grizzlies 109

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my NBA 2024-25 betting record via X all season.