Two 'Square' Over Bets For Tuesday In The 2025 NBA Play-In Tournament

Hopefully, the playoffs save the NBA because it had the worst regular season of my life. In a similar vein, I need the postseason to save my season. Entering the 2025 NBA Play-In Tournament, I'm down nearly 20 units (u) betting on the Association despite having +1.2% "closing line value."

LISTEN: OutKick Bets Podcast's 2025 NBA Play-In Tournament Best Bets Ft. David Troy

I.e., I'm "getting it in good" and losing a lot of coin flips. Nonetheless, I was in a comparable situation last postseason when I nearly won all the money I lost during the regular season. Down 20u is a big hole to climb out of, but I have nearly three months of playoff basketball to do so. 

Let's start with the play-in doubleheader on Tuesday. 

2025 NBA Play-In Tournament Betting Card: April 15 

These bets were released on the OutKick Bets Podcast Monday, April 14. 

• Atlanta Hawks C Onyeka Okongwu OVER 14.5 Points (-110), up to -125, at Orlando Magic via DraftKings, risking 1.1u.
• OVER 228.5 (-110) in Memphis Grizzlies at Golden State Warriors via BetMGM, risking 1.1u.

Player Prop for Atlanta Hawks at Orlando Magic 

The winner will probably get slaughtered by the 2-seed Cleveland Cavaliers in the first round of the 2025 NBA Eastern Conference. However, at least they get a "chip and a chair," as poker players would say. Orlando took Cleveland seven games in last year's first round, and Atlanta went to the 2021 conference finals. 

These teams split the season series 2-2 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS), but the last game didn't count because it was the final day of the regular season and both teams rested their starters. So, unofficially, the Magic won the season series 2-1 SU and ATS. 

For what it's worth, I'd take the points with Atlanta because Orlando doesn't have a real starting point guard and has the second-worst effective field goal shooting rate in the NBA, which accounts for 2- and 3-point shooting. Plus, the Hawks have a few athletic defenders to throw at Magic forwards Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero. 

Instead of taking a side, I'm betting a player prop: Atlanta C Onyeka Okongwu OVER 14.5 Points, which I gave out on my OutKick Bets Podcast Monday. Okongwu's points prop is up to -120, but I'd play it up to -125, so there is some wiggle room. 

In his only start vs. the Magic earlier this month, Okongwu had team-highs in points (30) and rebounds (14) on 52.9% field goal shooting. Since Hawks PG Trae Young's usage rate is insane, Okongwu can get easy lob dunks because of the Magic swarming Trae. 

Okongwu got inserted into the starting lineup full-time after the NBA All-Star Game. He is averaging 15.6 points and 10.6 rebounds per game since. Okongwu's true shooting rate over that span is 64.3% (.559/.380/.805). His 3-point percentage is no bullsh*t either because he attempts 2.7 per game.

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OVER 228.5 in Memphis Grizzlies at Golden State Warriors 

The unproven 2-seed Houston Rockets await whoever wins this play-in game for the 7-seed out West. Unlike Okongwu's points prop above, I'm giving out worse odds for this total than what's available at the time of writing. It's only fair, right? 

Regardless, the Grizzlies-Warriors Over is playable up to 230.5 because their last five meetings have gone Over this number. Obviously, all those Overs aren't "sticky" because of injury absences, load management, player movement, etc. 

The Memphis Grizzlies face the Golden State Warriors in the 2025 NBA Play-In Tournament for the 7-seed in the Western Conference Playoffs. (Photo credit: Petre Thomas-Imagn Images)

Yet, Golden State beat Memphis 134-125 with all notable players active (Warriors' Steph Curry, newcomer Jimmy Butler, and Draymond Green, and Grizzlies PG Ja Morant) earlier this month, soaring Over the 239 total. At full strength, both teams play five-out lineups and get out in transition. 

Also, Morant balls against Golden State. In 11 career meetings vs. Curry, Ja has scored 29+ points eight times. Usually, the pace slows down in must-win games, but I expect both to speed up the tempo. Lastly, Memphis's defense has been awful since firing former head coach Taylor Jenkins, and the Warriors have been lighting it up post-All-Star break. 

Prediction: Warriors 120, Grizzlies 115

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my NBA 2024-25 betting record via X all season.