12-1 Parlay For Indiana Pacers At Oklahoma City Thunder 2025 NBA Finals Game 1
No one is talking about it, besides me and fellow NBA superfan and co-worker, Amber Snyder, but the 2025 NBA Finals tips off Thursday when the Oklahoma City Thunder host the Indiana Pacers at 8:30 p.m. ET for Game 1.
The first-place Thunder lived up to the hype as the preseason favorite to win the West. The 4-seed Pacers exceeded expectations, upsetting the Cleveland Cavaliers and New York Knicks in the Eastern Conference Semifinals and Finals.
OKC is one of the biggest betting favorites in NBA Finals history: The Thunder are -650 at the time of writing, while the Pacers are +475 at DraftKings. Oklahoma City is -10 (-105) in Game 1 and the total is 230 (Over -108, Under -112).
However, because I'm torn on how to bet this game, I'm placing a Pizza Bet (aka, a bet that won't break the bank) on a 12-1 Same Game Parlay ("SGP") with five legs.
Indiana Pacers at Oklahoma City Thunder Game 1 SGP at DraftKings (+1200)
- Oklahoma City -10
- UNDER 230
- Indiana C Myles Turner UNDER 13.5 Points
- Thunder PF Chet Holmgren UNDER 1.5 Made 3-pointers
- OKC big Isaiah Hartenstein OVER 6.5 Rebounds
Thunder -10
Oklahoma City opened as -9 favorites and has been steamed up despite most of the betting action being on the Pacers. This suggests that Indy is a "public 'dog," which gets slaughtered by sportsbooks.
The Thunder are 8-1 straight up (SU) and 7-2 against the spread (ATS) at home in these playoffs with a +24.6 scoring margin. Per the Action Network's Evan Abrams, underdogs are 2-18 SU and 3-17 ATS in Game 1 since the 2005 NBA Finals.
The Indiana Pacers visit the Oklahoma City Thunder Thursday for Game 1 of the 2025 NBA Finals. (Photo credit: Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images)
UNDER 230
This is the scariest leg of the SGP because both teams like to get out in transition and have several 3-point shooters. However, it's the scarier bets that tend to be the most profitable, and the public loves betting Overs in primetime games.
Also, blowouts are where Overs go to die. The market projects the Thunder to win by double digits, and one-sided games slow down in the fourth quarter. My three player props below correlate with this game going Under the total, too.
Pacers C Myles Turner UNDER 13.5 Points
Good luck to Turner because Holmgren and Hartenstein make up the best defensive frontcourt in the NBA. Turner scored 11 and 12 points on 31.6% shooting in his two games vs. OKC during the regular season, and Holmgren missed both. The Pacers will run a few "pick-and-pop" plays for Turner to chuck 3-pointers, but he is unlikely to score in the paint.
Oklahoma City PF Chet Holmgren UNDER 1.5 made 3-pointers
Holmgren is 11th on the Thunder in 3-point-attempt rate this postseason. His 3-point rate has gone from 37.9% in the regular season to 33.3% in these playoffs. Holmgren has 2+ threes in seven of 16 games. Also, the Pacers have an awful defensive frontcourt, so Holmgren might spend most of his time in the paint, looking for lobs and easy putbacks.
Indiana C Myles Turner closes out on a 3-point shot from Oklahoma City PF Chet Holmgren. (Photo credit: Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images)
Thunder big Isaiah Hartenstein OVER 6.5 rebounds
Since I'm betting the Under for two fast-paced teams, I'm expecting a lot of misses, leading to a lot of rebounds. Hartenstein has at least seven boards in 10 of his 16 games in these playoffs and Indiana was 28th in rebounding rate during the regular season.
He grabbed 13 and five rebounds in his two games against the Pacers this season. That said, Hartenstein only played 14:20 in the game with five rebounds, and he'll play at least 20 minutes in Game 1, barring foul trouble.
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