Best Bets For 2025 Belmont Stakes Day At Saratoga Race Course

The 2025 Belmont Stakes is the main event on Saturday at Saratoga Race Course. However, don't sleep on the other 11 races, including six graded stakes events, highlighted by the final leg of the Triple Crown. 

Saratoga is a sports and horse-racing cathedral, so the Belmont Stakes Festival feels a little more special this year. Granted, I'm biased as a Saratoga native who hit the Exacta in last year's Belmont Stakes when Dornoch beat Mindframe. 

Related: 2025 BELMONT STAKES HORSES, JOCKEYS, MORNING-LINE ODDS, POST POSITIONS

Unfortunately, the Jaipur (Race 9) and Manhattan Stakes (Race 12) have been moved to Sunday because of the rain. Yet, we have to roll with the punches and handicap for rain or shine. That said, here are my picks for Races 8, 10-11, and 13 at Saratoga. 

2025 Belmont Stakes Day Betting Card 

• Race 8: $25 to Win on #1 Fierceness
• Race 10: $10 Win-Place on #9 Noble Confessor ($20 total bet)
• Race 11: $10 Exacta Box on 3-10 ($20 total bet)
• Race 13, Belmont Stakes: $20 Win on #6 Baeza and $5 Trifecta Key on #6 over 1/2/7 ($30 total bet)

Race 8: Grade 1 Metropolitan Handicap, 3:17 p.m. ET post time 

Five horses on a 1-mile dirt track for 3-year-olds and upward with a $1M purse. 

#1 Fierceness (1-1) is the horse for the course. He won all three career starts at Saratoga, including his maiden race by 11.25 lengths in 2023, and the G2 Jim Dandy and G1 Travers at last summer’s meet. 

Also, Fierceness is the fastest horse in the field. He ran a 111 Beyer in his win at the Travers and a second at the G1 Breeders’ Cup Classic last year. Since this is only a five-horse race, I'm only betting the #1 to win. 

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Race 10: Grade 3 Pennine Ridge Stakes, 4:47 p.m. ET post time 

Six horses on a 1-mile dirt track for 3-year-olds with a $300K purse. 

Four horses scratched after this race got moved from the inner turf to the dirt because of the rain, including one of my favorite horses, #1 Zulu Kingdom, who won me money on Kentucky Derby Day. I'm pivoting to #9 Noble Confessor (12-1), who almost beat Zulu Kingdom in the Grade 2 Pilgrim at Aqueduct last summer. 

Noble Confessor has tactical speed and his first two races were on the Saratoga dirt. Per the Daily Racing Form, "[trainer] Todd Pletcher feels good enough about him to give him another graded stakes shot vs. winners," and the morning-line favorite scratched. 

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Race 11: Grade 1 Woody Stephens Stakes, 5:28 p.m. ET post time 

Ten horses on a 7-furlong dirt track for 3-year-olds with a $500K purse. 

Trained by Saratoga native, Chad Brown, #10 Chancer McPatrick (4-1) won both starts at Saratoga, including his maiden race last summer and the G1 Hopeful at seven furlongs on this sod two months later. He's competed in five consecutive graded stakes races and prefers the shorter distance: 3-0 at a mile or shorter and 0-1-0 in three route races. 

I'm pairing McPatrick with #3 Macho Music (8-1), who is 1-1-0 in his two starts in Saratoga. Macho Music has run faster in five straight races, including his win by 3.25 lengths in the Grade 2 Pat Day Mile at Churchill last month. Early speed runs better on sloppy tracks at Saratoga, and Macho Music has the second-fastest early speed in this field. 

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Race 13: Grade 1 Belmont Stakes, 7:04 p.m. ET post time 

Eight horses on a 1.25-mile dirt track for 3-year-olds with a $2m purse. 

Look, it’ll be tough to beat the two betting favorites, #2 Sovereignty and #7 Journalism. But, #6 Baeza (4-1) has run faster in all five races, peaking with a 102 Beyer in a third at the Kentucky Derby, and 101 is the average winning speed of the past 20 Belmont Stakes. He almost ran down these two horses in the Kentucky Derby, showing he can handle a sloppy track.

The 2025 Belmont Stakes features a rematch between the top-three finishers in the Kentucky Derby, Sovereignty, Journalism, and Baeza. (Photo Credit: Albert Cesare/USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images)

Baeza's tactical speed is a positive here because there is a likelihood of rain in Saratoga, so the track could be sloppy, which favors early speed, and the two betting favorites are closers. Mounted by Flavien Prat, Baeza is the brother of last year's Kentucky Derby champion, Mage, and the 2024 Belmont winner, Dornoch, who also ran out of the #6 post last year. 

#1 Hill Road is the only price I could see hitting the board in the Belmont. He has the best jockey (Irad Ortiz) and trainer (Brown) combo in the field. Ortiz is a six-time winner of the top jockey award at Saratoga’s summer meet, including three in a row. Brown is a five-time Eclipse Award winner for Outstanding Trainer and Saratoga's reigning trainer of the year.

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