2024 NCAA Tournament Final Four Betting Preview: Purdue-NC State, UConn-Alabama
First the ladies, now the guys play the Final Four of the 2024 NCAA Tournament Saturday at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona. Two of the teams were expected to be here (UConn Huskies and Purdue Boilermakers), one is a bracket buster (NC State Wolfpack), and the other shot their way into the Final Four (Alabama Crimson Tide). Casual sports fans want to see if Purdue big Zach Edey can finish off his immaculate college career with a national title or if UConn can go back-to-back. But, can NC State and Alabama spoil the party?
NCAA Tournament 2024 Picks: Final Four
The odds chosen are the best available at the time of writing.
1-seed Purdue Boilermakers vs. 11-seed NC State Wolfpack, 6:09 p.m. ET
The Boilermakers were expected to be here in the preseason while the Wolfpack are the Cinderella story of March Madness. NC State beat Texas Tech, Oakland, Marquette, and Duke in the Elite Eight to advance to the Final Four. Purdue’s NCAA Tournament victims include Grambling State, Utah State, Gonzaga, and Tennessee.
The Wolfpack are on a 9-game winning streak starting with five games in the 2024 ACC Tournament, which they needed to win just to advance to the Big Dance. However, NC State’s 3-point defense has been more lucky than good and that luck will run out against Purdue. Or at least that’s how I’m betting this game.
Purdue Boilermakers C Zach Edey shoots a baby hook vs. the Tennessee Volunteers during the 2024 NCAA Tournament Midwest Regional Championship at Little Caesars Arena in Michigan. (Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports)
In the NCAA tourney, the Wolfpack’s opponents are shooting only 23.9% from 3-point land. The Boilermakers have the 2nd-best 3-point percentage (out of 362 D-1 schools) at 40.6%. A big reason for that is the gravitational pull of Purdue C Zach Edey. The reigning two-time Big Ten Player of the Year is playing his best basketball of the season.
RELATED: DJ Burns Foolishly Trash Talks Zach Edey, Dishes Out Bulletin Board Material: VIDEO
Edey is averaging 30.0 points and 16.3 rebounds per game in the NCAA Tournament. Edey’s paint presence craters opposing defenses and gets wide-open looks for his teammates. Purdue is hitting 39.0% of its threes in the tourney and grabbing 17.7 more rebounds per game than its opponents. Three of Purdue’s starters are making at least 43.9% of their threes, such as PG Braden Smith (43.9%) and forwards Fletcher Loyer (44.1%) and Mason Gillis (47.5%).
NC State Wolfpack big DJ Burns Jr. posts up Duke Blue Devils C Kyle Filipowski during the Elite Eight of the 2024 NCAA Tournament at American Airline Center in Dallas. (Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports)
Also, NC State is a "public underdog", which tends to get slaughtered by sportsbooks. Several prominent U.S. sportsbooks are reporting that at least 80% of the action is on the Wolfpack as of Friday. This passes the smell test. The public loves betting on underdogs, especially in the NCAA Tournament, and NC State heavyweight big DJ Burns is having a moment.
Finally, NC State has a terrible shot profile. According to Bart Torvik, the Wolfpack allow more close 2-pointers than they shoot and attempt more inefficient long-mid-range field goals than they force. The opposite is true of the Boilermakers. NC State has a -2.7% dunk rate differential whereas Purdue has a +5.6% dunk rate differential.
Bet 1.1 units (u) on Purdue -9 (-110) at DraftKings. Give me the Boilermakers up to -9.5.
_____________________________
1-seed UConn Huskies vs. 4-seed Alabama Crimson Tide, 8:49 p.m. ET
Connecticut appears to be unstoppable. The Huskies are the reigning national champions and have won 10 straight NCAA Tournament games by an average of 23.1 points and have a +13.9 spread differential. UConn is trying to become the 1st team to win back-to-back national titles since the Florida Gators in 2006-07. Yet, those Florida teams played in five single-digit games in those NCAA Tournaments.
Alabama won the West Region en route to the Final Four. The Crimson Tide handled business against lower-seeded teams in three rounds (College of Charleston, Grand Canyon, and Clemson) and upset the 1-seed North Carolina Tar Heels in the Sweet 16. Their NCAA Tournament success lives behind the arc.
The Alabama Crimson Tide celebrate after defeating the Clemson Tigers in the West Regional Final of the 2024 NCAA Tournament at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles. (Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports)
The Crimson Tide are hitting four more 3-pointers per game than their opponents in the Big Dance (12.0-8.0). Nevertheless, they need to hit these threes because their defense sucks. Alabama gives up 81.1 points per game, which ranks 356th out of 362 D-1 schools.
READ: Dan Hurley's UConn Stranded Without A Flight To Arizona After Technical Problems With Plane
Between UConn’s dominance and Alabama’s propensity to get into shootouts, I like the Over for this game. ‘Bama likes to get out in transition and Connecticut will go with the flow because it can keep up. The Huskies are 7th in effective field goal shooting nationally, which combines 2- and 3-point conversion rates.
Connecticut Huskies C Donovan Clingan is hyped while playing the Illinois Fighting Illini in the Elite Eight of the 2024 NCAA Tournament at TD Garden in Boston. (Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports)
They should get a lot of 2nd-chance points and free-throw opportunities. UConn is 13th in offensive rebounding rate. Alabama is 272nd in defensive rebounding and 311th in defensive FT/FGA rate. The Crimson Tide and their opponents have combined for 161+ points in 27 of their 36 games, including 10 of their 11 losses.
I believe that ‘Bama will go down swinging too. Alabama plays at the 3rd-fastest tempo in the country and either goes to the basket or chucks threes. Connecticut is 244th in defensive turnover rate, which gives me confidence ‘Bama can play its style. The Crimson Tide are aggressive regularly, so if the Huskies take a big lead, Alabama will go all out.
Bet 1.1u on OVER 160.5 in UConn-Alabama at Caesars. The OVER is playable up to 161.5.
_____________________________
Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants.