2025 Open Championship Best Bets: Three Tournament Head-To-Head Matchups

Head-to-head bets used to be the bread and butter of my PGA TOUR gambling. However, except for the 2025 Masters, where I went 1-2 in tournament matchup bets, I've mostly avoided them since April 2024 because I was "leaking units." At least publicly. Privately, I've cashed a few this season, so I'm ready to get back out there for The 153rd Open Championship at Royal Portrush. 

Listen: OUTKICK BETS PODCAST's THE 153rd OPEN CHAMPIONSHIP PREVIEW

Some people splurge when betting on the Super Bowl or March Madness. Well, golf's majors are my Super Bowl, and The Open has been my most profitable one. In fact, hitting Rory McIlroy at the 2025 Masters is the only major I've cashed an outright in, besides The Open Championship in 2021-22. Hence, I'm trying to capitalize on prior success this year. 

Nevertheless, I'm betting to profit a half-unit on the following three tournament matchups for the 2025 Open Championship. (Here is the rest of my bet slip for The 153rd Open, including picks to win, finishing position bets, and my One-And-Done pick.) 

Tournament Matchups for The 153rd Open Championship

• Russell Henley (-105) over Joaquin Niemann via BetMGM.
• Robert MacIntyre (+105) over Tyrrell Hatton via FanDuel.
• Adam Scott (-120) over Keegan Bradley via DraftKings.

Russell Henley (-105) vs. Joaquin Niemann 

Neither has a good history at The Open. But Henley finished at a career-best fifth last year. While Niemann's best finish in five career Open Championships is T53 in 2022 at St Andrews, a perfect course for him because it's easy around the green with wide fairways and non-penal rough, and Niemann is only 26 years old and still developing his short game. 

Russell Henley hitting an approach shot during the final round of The 152nd Open Championship at Royal Troon in England. (Photo credit: Jack Gruber-Imagn Images)

Henley, on the other hand, is 36 years old, and typical Open Championship winners are in their early to mid-30s. More importantly, he got the biggest win of his career earlier this year, the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational, and is DataGolf.com's sixth-ranked player, which is more relevant than the Official World Golf Rankings, because Data Golf recognizes the LIV Tour.   

Plus, Henley is coming in hot with a T5 at the Memorial Tournament ("signature event"), T10 at the U.S. Open, and T2 at the Travelers Championship ("signature event") in his last three starts. He was T5 in the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, which is another "signature event," and Pebble Beach is the most famous American links course. 

Robert MacIntyre (+105) vs. Tyrrell Hatton  

Both were T6 in the 2019 Open Championship at Royal Portrush. Granted, that was MacIntyre's best finish, but he's made the cut in his four Opens since. Whereas Hatton has missed the cut in seven of his 12 career Opens. That's surprising considering Hatton has been a top-20 golfer in the world for the past five years and is an Englishman familiar with links golf. 

Robert MacIntyre is sitting on a bench during a practice round for The 153rd Open Championship at Royal Portrush. (Photo credit: Stuart Franklin/Getty Images)

MacIntyre won the 2024 RBC Canadian Open at another Harry Colt golf course, the same guy who designed Portrush, and he's trending better. MacIntyre was T65 in his title defense at the 2025 Genesis Scottish Open last week, but T17 at the Travelers, second at the U.S. Open, T36 in a title defense in Canada, and T20 at the Memorial.

Hatton was T60 at the PGA Championship, T15 at LIV Virginia, T4 at the U.S. Open, T5 at LIV Dallas, and T23 at last week's LIV Andalucia in his past five starts. No disrespect to the LIV Tour (okay, maybe a little disrespect), but MacIntyre has played against much stronger fields recently, and only 54 golfers play in LIV Tour events. 

Adam Scott (-120) vs. Keegan Bradley

I love Keegan and all because he cashed an outright for me at the 2022 ZOZO Championship, and he is a fellow St. John's University Class of 2008 alum. Unfortunately, I have to stab Bradley in the back here because his Open Championship history is terrible, with five consecutive missed cuts. 

Conversely, Scott might be the best Open Championship golfer without a Claret Jug. He has six top-10s at The Open and has been flushing it lately. Scott was +8.8 Strokes Gained (SG): Ball-Striking (BS), which includes iron-play and driving, at the U.S. Open, +6.1 SG: BS at the Travelers, and +3.7 SG: BS in Scotland in his last three starts. 

_____________________________

Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my PGA Tour 2025 betting record via X throughout the entire season.