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I’ve already given out my “horses for the course” for the 2023 Valero Texas Open at the TPC San Antonio Oaks Course and discussed them on my ‘Hot Links’ golf betting show on the OutKick Bets Podcast feed.
I’m fading a golfer with questionable motivation to play at the Valero Texas Open (Tyrrell Hatton) and backing a golfer who needs to win to make the Masters (Rickie Fowler).
Also, since the average odds for the last five Valero Texas Open champions is roughly 130-to-1, why not drop 0.1 units on a longshot? Keep in mind, the following golfer discussed is a 110-to-1 bomb for a reason.
Valero Texas Open Head-to-Head
Rickie Fowler (+125) > Tyrrell Hatton
Unfortunately, the wonderful sponsor of my OutKick Bets Podcast — DraftKings Sportsbook — doesn’t have the Fowler vs. Hatton matchup available on their board.
If you google “Fowler vs. Hatton” you’ll find other books taking bets on this head-to-head. Anyhow, Fowler ranks 1st in my Valero Texas Open power rankings and Hatton is 2nd.
Fowler is 3rd in total SG for comp courses used. He is 2nd for total SG in windy weather conditions, which Texas is known for. Hatton is 8th in total SG at comp courses and 31st in total SG in windy conditions.
More importantly, Fowler needs to win the Valero Texas Open to play in next week’s Masters whereas Hatton already has a spot in the Masters.
Hatton dealt with an injury at last week’s WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play. If Hatton’s hand injury flares up this week, he could eject out of this event.
BET: 1 unit on Rickie Fowler (+125) > Tyrrell Hatton
Valero Texas Open Longshot
His recent form has been terrible and List is a notoriously terrible putter. List has missed three straight cuts and has the 2nd-worst Strokes Gained (SG): Putting on Bermuda greens over the last 24 rounds.
But, when you sort by the last 100 rounds, List is one of the best ball strikers in this field. In fact, List is 1st in both SG: Off-the-tee and SG: Tee-to-Green (T2G), 7th in SG: Approach and 4th for Greens-in-Regulation gained.
List is 6th in total SG for comp courses used in my model. He is 4th in SG: T2G at courses longer than 7,400 yards (TPC San Antonio is roughly 7,450 yards), and 29th in total SG in windy weather conditions.
His elite ball-striking gives List a “puncher’s chance” to win any PGA Tour event if he has a good weekend on the greens. List won the 2022 Farmers Insurance Open with a +3.7 SG: Putting in that event.
Bet Luke List at DraftKings Sportsbook:
- Win: (0.1u: +11000)
- Top-20: (0.25u: +400)
Valero Texas Open Bet Slip
- Chris Kirk: Win & Top-20 (1.25u)
- Thomas Detry: Win, Top-10 & Top-20 (1.25u)
- Brendon Todd: Win & Top-20 (1u)
- Andrew Putnam: Win, Top-10 & Top-20 (1u)
- Luke List: Win & Top-20 (0.35u)
- Rickie Fowler > Tyrrell Hatton (1u: +125)
Listen to the ‘OutKick Bets with Geoff Clark’ podcast HERE.
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