Geoff Clark
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We stay in the Lone Star State for the final PGA Tour event before the 2023 Masters. The Valero Texas Open 2023 tees off Thursday, March 30th at the TPC San Antonio (Oaks Course).
I mostly took a bye last week at the 2023 WGC-Dell Match Play but did squeeze in a couple of losing wagers after the 1st round. The grading of my WGC-Dell Match Play bets is at the bottom of the page.
My PGA Tour balance fell to +0.38 units (u) after a -2.30u performance at the Match Play preceded by a -7.7u effort at the 2023 Valspar Championship. My active 7-event losing skid negates me cashing four outright bets so far this season.
Before making my Valero Texas Open picks, I’ll discuss TPC San Antonio and the event history and give out my key stats.
Valero Texas Open course and event preview
It’s the last chance for a majority of the field to make the Masters. Only eight golfers in the Valero Texas Open field is eligible for the Masters.
The betting favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook are Tyrrell Hatton (+1200), Rickie Fowler (+1800), Si Woo Kim (+2200), and 2019 Valero Texas Open champion Corey Conners (+2200).
Comp courses
The host venue is TPC San Antonio Oaks Course in Texas. It’s a Par 72 track at 7,435 yards with four Par 3s, four Par 5s, and 10 Par 4s and Bermuda grass greens.
- TPC Summerlin for the Shriners Children’s Open.
- The Riviera Country Club for the Genesis Invitational.
- TPC Craig Ranch for the AT&T Byron Nelson.
- Quail Hollow Club for the Wells Fargo Championship.
- Memorial Park for the Houston Open.
- Colonial Country Club for the Charles Schwab Challenge.
Key Stats
- Good drives gained.
- Greens-in-regulation gained.
- Strokes Gained (SG): Approach (APP).
- SG: Ball-striking (BS).
- Proximity (PROX): 75-125.
- SG: Par 4.
- SG: Par 5.
- Birdies-or-better (BoB) gained.
- Bogey Avoidance.
- SG: Tee-to-green (T2G) at courses longer than 7,400 yards.
- Total SG in windy weather conditions.
Previous Valero Texas Open champions
The Valero Texas Open is a non-elevated event with an $8.9 million prize pool and the winner takes home $1.6 million.
- 2022: J.J. Spaun -13 (+15000)
- 2021: Jordan Spieth -18 (+1200)
- 2020: Canceled
- 2019: Corey Conners -20 (+20000)
- 2018: Andrew Landry -17 (+20000)
- 2017: Kevin Chappell -12 (+2500)
The average winning score of the last five Valero Texas Opens is 16-under par, the average cut line is 1.5-over par and the average odds are roughly 130-to-1.
Valero Texas Open ‘4 Horsemen’
- All stats are provided by FantasyNational.com unless noted.
Chris Kirk
This feels like a trap. How does Kirk have the 8th-best odds to win the Valero Texas Open? Kirk won The Honda Classic 2023 last month and is 4th in total SG over the last 24 rounds.
Per my Texas Open power rankings, Kirk is the 3rd-best golfer in this field. Over the last 36 rounds, Kirk ranks 5th in my key stats model: 4th in Par 4 scoring, 9th in BoB gained, and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.
Kirk has made six cuts in eight career Texas Open starts and finished T13 or better in four of those events. He’s picked up strokes off the tee in seven straight Texas Opens and SG: T2G in seven of eight Texas Opens.
Over the last 24 rounds, Kirk is 18th in SG: Putting on Bermuda greens. Kirk is 9th in SG: T2G at courses longer than 7,400 yards over the last 50 rounds.
These are the best odds I found and bet for Chris Kirk:
- Win: (0.5u: +2800)
- Top-20: (0.75u: +140)
Thomas Detry
I’m hell-bent on betting Detry for his 1st win. I’ve backed Detry several times already this season albeit without a lot of success. But, Detry is 9th in my Valero Texas Open power rankings and is 16th by the odds at DraftKings.
Detry is 9th in this field for SG: Putting on Bermuda greens over the last 24 rounds and 10th in total SG. Over the last 36 rounds, Detry is 2nd in both SG: Par 4 and Bogey Avoidance and 19th in BoB gained.
He is one of the best rookies on tour. Detry is leading the field for total SG over the last 50 rounds. Detry finished T8 at last week’s 2023 Corales Puntacana Championship and has five T15 finishes or better this season.
These are the best odds I found and bet for Thomas Detry:
- Win: (0.25u: +4500)
- Top-10: (0.25u: +500)
- Top-20: (0.75u: +220)
Brendon Todd
TPC San Antonio has some of the slowest greens on Tour and Todd is 1st in SG: Putting on slow greens over the last 50 rounds. Todd has picked up strokes on the greens in all five career Valero Texas Open starts.
Texas golf courses typically have windy weather conditions and Todd goes well in the Lone Star State. He’s finished T8 at the 2022 Valero Texas Open, T3 at last year’s Charles Schwab, 8th in 2021 and 5th in 2014.
Todd is 12th in my Texas Open power rankings: 13th in total SG at TPC San Antonio, 14th for total SG over the last 24 rounds and 17th in total SG in windy weather conditions.
He has three T9’s or better this season and I made money on Todd when he was T2 at the 2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.
These are the best odds I found and bet for Brendon Todd:
- Win: (0.25u: +4000)
- Top-20: (0.75u: +180)
Andrew Putnam
My models are showing value on Putnam. He ranks 14th across my numbers and 5th in total SG over the last 50 rounds but has the 20th-best odds at DraftKings.
TPC San Antonio has some of the toughest Par 5s on tour and Putnam ranks 12th in SG: Par 5. This course is known for its cavernous bunkers and Putnam is 8th in Sand Saves over the last 50 rounds.
More importantly, Putnam’s putter should keep him alive in this tourney on the weekend. Putnam’s best putting surface is Bermuda greens and he is 4th in this field for SG: Putting on Bermuda over the last 24 rounds.
Again, the average cut-line at the Texas Open is 1.5-over par. Putnam is 2nd for this field in Bogey Avoidance and 12th in Good Drives gained. If Putnam’s iron-play comes around, he is a lock for a Top-20.
These are the best odds I found and bet for Andrew Putnam:
- Win: (0.2u: +5500)
- Top-10: (0.2u: +500)
- Top-20: (0.6u: +225)
Valero Texas Open Bet Slip
- Chris Kirk: Win & Top-20 (1.25u)
- Thomas Detry: Win, Top-10 & Top-20 (1.25u)
- Brendon Todd: Win & Top-20 (1u)
- Andrew Putnam: Win, Top-10 & Top-20 (1u)
WGC-Dell Match Play Recap (-2.30 units)
- Hideki Matsuyama, withdrew: To Win ❌
- Min Woo Lee > Matthew Fitzpatrick in Round 2 (-1.05u) ❌
- Tom Hoge > Cameron Davis in Round 2 (-1.25u) ❌
Check out the Hot Links golf gambling show hosted by Geoff Clark on the OutKick Bets podcast feed. New episodes drop Tuesdays for all full-field PGA Tour events in the 2022-23 season.
Listen to the ‘OutKick Bets with Geoff Clark’ podcast HERE.
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