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We’re coming into the 2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am in California red-hot after cashing a Max Homa 22-1 ticket at the 2023 Farmers Insurance Open, along with a few other wagers.
The 2022 Pebble Beach Pro-Am was my 1st PGA Tour event bet last season and I cashed on my only three bets: Tom Hoge to win (+5000) and Hoge to finish top-five and top-10. Hoge and I are back to defend our titles.
I gained +11.73 units (u) at the Farmers and my 2022-23 PGA Tour balance climbed to +28.24u in 12 events bet. Homa was my 4th outright winner this season. The recap of my Farmers Insurance Open bets is at the bottom.
Despite crushing the Farmers, I cannot help but feel like I left meat on the bone. I also hit a top-five and top-10 ticket on Sungjae Im. Top-10 and Top-20 bets for Hideki Matsuyama and a head-to-head.
Those wins should yield a bigger haul than +11.73u. Perhaps I’m being greedy and will be humbled. However, moving forward, I’ll be upping my bet sizes for outrights.
There might be pain initially but I want my paydays to be fatter. Feel free to pick-and-choose or fade my picks altogether. Either way, gamble responsibly and monitor your golf betting bankroll.
Before we diving into the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am bet slip, we’ll go over tourney details, do a brief course breakdown and I’ll give me key performance indicators (KPIs).
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Get your promo by clicking this line: DraftKings Sportsbook.
Event intel and KPIs for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am is a 3-course rota event hosted by the Monterey Peninsula Country Club for one round, Spyglass Hill Golf Course for one round and Pebble Beach Golf Links for two rounds.
All three courses are shorter than 7,200 yards and shotlink data is only available for Pebble Beach GL. Poa grass makes up the greens at Pebble Beach GL, which has some of smallest greens on tour.
Hoge is the reigning champion, shooting a 19-under in 2022 and back in the field this year. Otherwise, this year’s Pebble Beach Pro-Am field is a disappointment.
Only one top-10 player in Official World Golf Rankings is in the field (Matthew Fitzpatrick, No. 10), three top-20, and 10 top-10 golfers.
The average winning score of the last five Pebble Beach Pro-Ams is 18-under and the average cut-line is 5-under. Comp courses used in my AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am power rankings:
- Waialae Country Club for the Sony Open
- Port Royal Golf Course for the Butterfield Bermuda Championship
- Colonial Country Club for the Charles Schwab Challenge
- El Camaleón Golf Course for the World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba
- Sea Island Golf Course for The RSM Classic
- Strokes Gained (SG): Approach (APP)
- Proximity (PROX): 100-125
- Greens-in-Regulation (GIRs) gained
- SG: Par 4
- Birdies-or-Better (BoB) gained
- Driving Accuracy
- A dash of Scrambling
- A touch of SG: Around-the-Green (ARG) since the greens at Pebble Beach are small
- SG: Putting on Poa (Last 24 rounds)
- SG at courses 7,200 yards or shorter
- Comp Courses
- SG at courses with easy scoring conditions
- Course History
Alright, enough beating around the bush, let’s get to the good stuff …
The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Starting 5
- All stats are provided by FantasyNational.com unless noted.
Power is priced in the same tier of golfers who casual fans know and has the same odds as the defending champion. He dropped from +1900 earlier this week to his current number (+2200).
My guess for Power’s price getting juicier is people thinking he doesn’t belong in the same tier as those other guys. Also, most PGA handicappers use FantasyNational.com’s model-maker and Power’s stats fall through the cracks.
Power won the Bermuda Championship at the end of October, finished T3 at Mayakoba in November, T5 at the RSM Classic two weeks later and T20 in the DP World Tour’s Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship at the end of January.
Neither Mayakoba nor Bermuda have shotlink data so Power’s KPIs aren’t as impressive as they ought to be. But, the sportsbooks are accounting stats the models aren’t hence Power’s price-point.
He is 4th in this field for SG over the last 24 rounds, 12th in SG at Pebble Beach, 7th at comp courses used and 1st at courses with easy scoring conditions. Power finished T9 at last year’s Pebble Beach Pro-Am.
Power’s 2021-22 season was a lot better than the talking heads are giving him credit for. He placed top-20 in 41% of his PGA Tour events last season (11-of-27). Power finished T12 at the 2022 U.S. Open and T9 at the 2022 PGA Championship.
Go to DraftKings Sportsbook and bet the following Seamus Power odds:
- Win: (0.5u: +2200)
- Top-5: (0.5u: +500)
- Top-10: (0.5u: +250)
- Top-20: (0.5u: +125)
He was off his game last week, missing the cut at the 2023 Farmers Insurance Open because Torrey Pines has one of the lowest driving accuracy rates of any course on tour.
It’s the complete opposite at this week since Pebble Beach is the 4th-easiest course in terms of driving accuracy on tour this season, per DataGolf.com.
Pebble Beach is less penal to golfers that miss the fairway because it has short rough. I included driving accuracy in my KPI-model because you need to put up a good number to win at Pebble Beach.
It’s easier to do that if you’re playing your 2nd shot from the fairway. But, Detry ranks 11th in this field for BoB gained and 24th in PROX: 100-125.
Over his last 24 rounds, Detry is third for total SG in this field. He has two top-10 finishes already this season with a 2nd at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship back in October.
Detry also placed 15th in the World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba. Both Mayakoba and Bermurda are comp courses for Pebble Beach and neither has shotlink data.
Meaning Detry’s performance at those two events isn’t even accounted for in his 3rd-place ranking for total SG over the last 24 rounds.
That also doesn’t include the DP World Tour’s Nedbank Golf Challenge in December (T13) and the BMW PGA Championship in October (T5).
Detry is also 10th according to my numbers in SG at courses 7,200 yards or shorter and ninth at comp courses pulled. He is top-five in the 2022-23 PGA Tour rookie rankings and an up-and-comer in golf.
The bottom line is I like Detry’s game and I’m going to make money on his first PGA Tour victory. It could be this week at Pebble Beach.
Go to DraftKings Sportsbook and bet the following Thomas Detry odds:
- Win: (0.4u: +4500)
- Top-5: (0.4u: +900)
- Top-10: (0.4u: +450)
- Top-20: (0.5u: +210)
Detry and Griffin are two of “my guys” and I’ve been on them several times already this season. Granted, I haven’t won much money on either but, like Detry, I plan on cashing Griffin bets in his 1st win.
Anywho, Griffin at +5500 is a value-play for me. Griffin is 7th in my Pebble Beach Pro-Am power rankings and 5th in my KPI-model. He is 6th for SG in this field over the last 24 rounds and 11th in comp courses pulled with T3 at the Bermuda.
Griffin is 8th in SG: APP, 4th in SG: Par 4, 12th in PROX: 100-125 and 1st in BoB gained. There are 11.4% more 2nd shots from 100-125 yards out at Pebble Beach. His biggest weakness is hitting fairways, which I’m willing to excuse if the price is right.
Go to DraftKings Sportsbook and bet the following Ben Griffin odds:
- Win: (0.37u: +5500)
- Top-5: (0.37u: +1100)
- Top-10: (0.37u: +500)
- Top-20: (0.5u: +250)
Lipsky was overshadowed as a rookie last season by the likes of Cameron Young, Sahith Theegala, Taylor Pendrith, and Mito Pereira. He only had three top-10 finishes in his rookie season.
But, Lipsky already has two top-10 finishes this season: T4 at the 2023 Sony Open and T10 at Mayakoba, both of which are comp courses to Pebble Beach.
Being from California, Lipsky has to have experience at Pebble Beach. It’s one of the most iconic golf courses on the whole PGA Tour let alone his home state.
Pebble Beach — like most Californian golf courses — uses Poa grass greens, which tend to be trickier than Bent or Bermuda. Either way, they are different and Lipsky has previous success putting on Poa.
Lipsky finished 24th at 2022 Pebble Beach Pro-Am gaining 6.5 of his +6.7 strokes on the greens. He missed the cut at the American Express Open earlier this month because he lost 4.3 strokes putting.
However, Lipsky picked up strokes in the four other most important golf metrics: APP, ARG, tee-to-green (T2G), and off-the-tee (OTT).
Lipsky has gained 4 total strokes on the field over his last five and 10 events with a +SG in APP, ARG, T2G, and OTT. He is losing more than 1 stroke putting over that span. If Lipsky can putt as well this weekend as he did at last year’s Pro-Am, he should be a threat to win.
Finally, Lipsky is only 23rd for total SG in this field over the last 24 rounds. But, this doesn’t account for Lipsky’s T10 at Mayakoba since there isn’t shotlink data for that event. He ranks 2nd on my KPI-model and 8th in my Pebble Beach power rankings.
If we manually bump up Lipsky’s trending performance, I could argue Lipsky should be power-rated closer to the top-five not 28th (+7000), which is better than his current price at DraftKings.
Go to DraftKings Sportsbook and bet the following David Lipsky odds:
- Win: (0.29u: +7000)
- Top-5: (0.29u: +1400)
- Top-10: (0.29u: +600)
- Top-20: (0.5u: +275)
I’m not crazy about adding a 5th golfer to my bet slip but Todd is 6th in my Pebble Beach Pro-Am power rankings. He’s 4th in my KPI-model, 4th in this field for SG at Pebble Beach, and 8th in comp courses.
Todd is 6th in SG: Par 4, 5th in driving accuracy and 8th in both BoB gained and PROX: 100-125. He placed 16th at last year’s Pebble Beach Pro-Am, 10th at the 2015 Pro-Am and 9th in 2012.
Go to DraftKings Sportsbook and bet the following Brendon Todd odds:
- Win: (0.125u: +7500)
- Top-5: (0.125u: +1400)
- Top-10: (0.25u: +600)
- Top-20: (0.5u: +280)
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Head-to-Heads
Jordan Spieth (-120) > Maverick McNealy
The 2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am marks my 2nd year betting the PGA Tour and no golfer has been more overrated than McNealy.
Granted, he’s played well recently but Spieth over McNealy at this price is an auto-bet. Spieth is No. 1 in my Pebble Beach Pro-Am power rankings and McNealy is 23rd.
Spieth has the 2nd-best SG at Pebble Beach in this field. He’s finished in the top-10 in six of his 10 career Pebble Beach Pro-Am appearances including a win at the 2017 event and 2nd last season.
McNealy on the other hand finished 33rd in his Pebble Beach Pro-Am debut last season. More importantly, Spieth is 7th in my KPI-model and McNealy is 91st.
Pebble Beach is a 2nd-shot course and McNealy is 118th in this field for SG: APP, 146th in PROX: 100-125 and 78th in SG: ARG.
Spieth is 16th for SG: APP in this field, 17th in PROX: 100-125, 9th in SG: ARG and 2nd in BoB gained. Since Pebble Beach has small greens, ARG is important for making up for missing greens.
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Open Final Bet Slip
- Seamus Power: Win, Top-5, Top-10 & Top-20 (2u)
- Thomas Detry: Win, Top-5, Top-10 & Top-20 (1.7u)
- Ben Griffin: Win, Top-5, Top-10 & Top-20 (1.61u)
- David Lipsky: Win, Top-5, Top-10 & Top-20 (1.37u)
- Brendon Todd: Win, Top-5, Top-10 & Top-20 (1u)
- Jordan Spieth (-120) > Maverick McNealy
2023 Farmers Insurance Open (+11.73u)
- Max Homa ,🥇: Win, Top-5 & Top-20 (+7.3u) 💰
- Sungjae Im, tied for 4th: Top-5 & Top-10 (+2.85u) 💰
- Win ❌
- Hideki Matsuyama, tied for 9th: Top-10 & Top-20 (+1.58u) 💰
- Win & Top-5 ❌
- Emiliano Grillo, tied for 44th: Win, Top-5, Top-10 & Top-20 (-1u) ❌
- Matthew NeSmith > Beau Hossler (+1u) ✅
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