Prediction: Super Bowl To Follow Oscars, Move To YouTube Or Netflix By 2040

The real streaming war is between two players: Netflix and YouTube.

In a bold move to take the lead, YouTube announced this week that it will become the exclusive broadcast partner for the Oscars beginning in 2029. The ceremony’s departure from ABC, its home since 1976, is arguably the biggest event yet to shift from traditional television to streaming.

Reports indicate that ABC tried to keep the Oscars and NBC also made a bid. However, neither network could match YouTube parent company Alphabet Inc., whose $3.7 trillion market cap dwarfs the competition.

The immediate question now is which major television event will be next. The truth is, if YouTube or Netflix wants something badly enough, they have the money to make it happen. And the one event with the highest stakes, undoubtedly, the Super Bowl.

The NFL is expected to opt out of its current broadcast deals in 2029, which include the rights to the Super Bowl. Under the current setup, the game rotates between Fox, CBS, NBC, and ABC/ESPN. Expect a fifth partner to soon join that rotation next – a streaming partner, that is. 

Prediction: A Super Bowl will air exclusively on either YouTube or Netflix by 2040.

INDIA - 2024/09/23: In this photo illustration, a Netflix logo seen displayed on a smartphone with a YouTube logo in the background. (Photo Illustration by Avishek Das/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images)

For background, both Netflix and YouTube already have relationships with the NFL. Last year, Netflix signed a three-year deal to air exclusive Christmas Day games. YouTube holds the rights to the NFL’s Sunday Ticket package and aired an exclusive opening-weekend game from Brazil this season.

In theory, the NFL would prefer to keep the game on television to maximize reach and avoid backlash from older fans. But as the Academy learned in negotiating the Oscars deal, the only way to keep streamers away is to turn down offers that exceed market value.

The NFL isn’t much in the business of turning down money, ever.

"It’s a matter of when, not if," Front Office Sports media reporter Ryan Glasspiegel told OutKick when asked about a Super Bowl moving to streaming.

"Right now, broadcast TV is still the best way for the NFL to maximize its reach," he added, "but it wouldn’t be surprising if, when the NFL renegotiates its TV deals next year, a Super Bowl ends up on YouTube, Amazon, or Netflix—especially if the latter two agree to drop their paywalls for it."

If there were odds on which streaming platform airs the first Super Bowl, put us down for Netflix. The company has taken a cautious approach to live sports, focusing on one-off events such as the Christmas Day NFL slate, Jake Paul fights, and the Home Run Derby rather than weekly broadcasts.

No single event aligns better with that strategy than the Super Bowl.

NEW ORLEANS, LOUISIANA -  DECEMBER 01: Netflix and NFL signage advertising the NFL's two Christmas Day marquee games streaming live on Netflix on December 01, 2024 in New Orleans, Louisiana. (Photo by Aaron M. Sprecher/Getty Images)

Netflix also has more brand prestige and marketing power than YouTube, whose reach depends on free access. The NFL would also likely prefer Netflix to Amazon Prime or Peacock, both of which lag behind the industry leader in monthly viewers.

While sports on streaming still trail traditional television in viewership, that gap will continue to narrow. By the late 2030s, it’s plausible that more people will watch the Super Bowl on Netflix or YouTube than on any broadcast network— especially internationally.

When that day comes, the outrage over having to stream the Super Bowl will be more mild than fierce.

Okay, that last prediction is a bit aggressive.

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