Betting Odds Show JD Vance, Gavin Newsom as Early and Heavy 2028 Favorites

Ahead of the past two presidential elections, it was the betting markets—not the polls—that proved to be the most accurate indicators. Just over three years out from the 2028 election, JD Vance and Gavin Newsom have emerged as clear favorites for their respective parties.

OddsChecker updated its odds on Wednesday, with the following results:

JD Vance: +225

Gavin Newsom: +350

Donald Trump Sr.: +700

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: +1000

Pete Buttigieg: +1200

Marco Rubio: +1200

Kamala Harris: +1600

Donald Trump Jr.: +1600

Andy Beshear: +1600

Josh Shapiro: +1600

Wes Moore: +2000

Michelle Obama: +2000

JB Pritzker: +2000

PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA - AUGUST 6: Republican Vice Presidential Candidate Sen. JD Vance (R-OH) delivers remarks during a campaign rally at 2300 Arena on August 6, 2024 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Vance is campaigning in several battleground states, closely matching Democratic presidential candidate Vice President Kamala Harris' campaign schedule for this week. (Photo by Drew Hallowell/Getty Images)

While other names could emerge in the next two years, it’s difficult to take most of the list seriously beyond Vance and Newsom. The market appears to agree, listing Donald Trump Sr. winning a third election as the third most likely outcome.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Kamala Harris have positioned themselves too far left for the median Democratic voter—an issue that internal polling found cost Harris support in swing states last November.

Elsewhere, Michelle Obama is unpopular and uninterested in running. Andy Beshear, Josh Shapiro, and Wes Moore look more like supporting figures than front-runners. And JB Pritzker isn't a heavyweight politically. 

Given the Democrats’ desire to win elections through identity politics, there could be pushback from the far-left wing of the party against endorsing Newsom, a straight white male. However, the party has also seemingly convinced itself that Harris and Hillary Clinton lost because they were women (as opposed to the fact that they were notoriously unlikable candidates). Most likely, Democrats have talked themselves into believing they’ll need a straight white man on the ballot to defeat the GOP in 2028.

Prediction: The first female president will be a Republican.

Recent history suggests Democratic primary voters won’t be the ones ultimately deciding the nominee. For a refresher, voters haven’t had much say in the last three candidates. Party leadership essentially installed Clinton and Biden over Bernie Sanders in 2016 and 2020, and they certainly installed Harris in 2024.

Put simply: if the establishment chooses Newsom, he’ll be on the ballot.

(Frazer Harrison/WireImage via Getty Images)

For Republicans, the race begins with Donald Trump’s endorsement. Last month, Trump said he sees Vance as the most likely heir to the MAGA movement.

If Trump and Vance were to have a falling out, Secretary of State Marco Rubio is the name to monitor. But we like Vance’s odds.

In a hypothetical matchup, Vance would have several advantages over Newsom. Newsom’s record as California governor is littered with failures, starting with his handling of COVID. Just look at the exodus numbers under his leadership.

Do voters want America to look like California? Probably not. And that’s a message tailor-made for Vance, who would certainly lean into his America First bona fides on the campaign trail.