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Thoughts on 2024 Presidential Election Odds

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Paddy Power, owned by FanDuel’s parent company Flutter in the UK, released the following odds for the 2024 presidential election:

Kamala Harris, in theory, is correctly ranked No. 2. Whomever President Joe Biden, 78, answers to, could tell him to step aside and let Harris run in 2024. That’s possible. However, Harris’ run would end there. She’s not winning in 2024.

Harris’ staff doesn’t like her. A poll this week said Harris is the least popular vice president since the 1970s. Remember, the Democrats pushed Harris in the primary against Biden and others. Yet Harris performed so poorly that she dropped out of the race in Dec. 2019. Harris didn’t have any support then, doesn’t have any now, and won’t have any in 2024.

Biden doesn’t like Harris either. She called him a racist, remember? Harris is vice president because Democrats told Biden to pick her. Biden obeyed, but American voters won’t.

Second, I disagree with my long-time friend Ryan Glasspiegel that Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis should be at 6-1, even ahead of Trump.

As long as the media doesn’t successfully manufacture a scandal surrounding DeSantis — both MSNBC and 60 Minutes have tried — he will remain a strong candidate. That said, I lean on the side that the gap between DeSantis and Trump should be wider than 7-1 to 12-1, as Paddy Power has it.

But will Trump run in 2024?

Bill O’Reilly said on the No Spin News last month he expects Trump to run. Because of their upcoming joint history tour, O’Reilly spent time one-on-one, off-camera with Trump in July. O’Reilly is not citing second-hand information. O’Reilly is as connected to Trump as anyone in the media, save for maybe Sean Hannity.

Translation: Trump, right now, plans to run in 2024. And if he does, Trump could walk to the nomination.

While there’s an argument to be made that DeSantis would perform better than Trump in a general election, Trump has a significant built-in advantage among Republican voters. Trump has the power to turn his base against any GOP candidate who challenges him. A Republican candidate cannot win the nomination without the support of Trump’s base.

In the rare column in the New York Times that is actually worth a read, Ross Douthat puts it best:

“Limits on [Trump’s] power, however, are not the same things as limits on his support. The rule in the Trump era is that you can oppose Trump indirectly or win without his endorsement — but save for a few unusual cases, you can’t challenge him personally and expect to have Republican voters on your side.”

You can’t challenge him personally and expect to have Republican voters on your side — that is correct. 

Now, if Trump doesn’t run in 2024, polling data suggests Republican voters would favor DeSantis today. In a straw poll in Orlando, based on a hypothetical primary nomination showdown that didn’t include Trump, DeSantis led the pack with 43% support. South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem finished second at 11%.

Based on those numbers, Noem at 40-1 is a solid long-shot bet. 

Nikki Haley, meanwhile, is a different story. Paddy Power puts Haley at 12-1, equal with DeSantis. Trump wouldn’t need to turn his base against Haley — they are already there. Haley damaged her chances in 2024 the moment she torched Trump in February.

Moreover, in past elections, a Republican candidate could not win a primary or general election without the support of Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity. Tucker Carlson is now the most influential media voice on the Right. It’s not close. Haley does not have Carlson’s support and isn’t winning the nomination without it.

Finally, how did that kook Eric Swalwell make the list at 40-1? I can’t think of a worse choice.

Written by Bobby Burack

Bobby Burack covers media, politics, and sports at OutKick.

22 Comments

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  1. If mail-in ballot harvesting is still possible then the odds mean nothing.

    Will I still go vote? Of course. I’m not a lazy coward.

    But I was seated in front of my TV at 3 in the morning when votes magically started to go 8-1,
    9-1 for Joe Biden, a man who can’t even string complete sentences together…. for swing states of which the election was hanging.

    Once you’ve seen that – you can’t unsee it.

    • Agreed Red Dot. After what we witnessed this past election I don’t know if we’ve ever really had a free and fair election. I think the jokes always been on us for actually believing that bs. Fortunately 2020 happened and the gig is up. We’re on to them now but what are we going to do about it, that is the question.

    • Voting machines turned off with Trump ahead and turned back on with votes magically reversing to a ratio favoring Biden that defied logic…..

      These charts/Polls mean nothing as long as the game is fixed.

    • I’m a number and percentages guy, as well as a gambler. Biden’s overnight “comeback” was a one in a zillion shot. I stayed up, much like 2016, to wait and see who was going to win. When I went to bed, Trump was such a lock I slept comfortably with a smile on my face. When I woke up the next day and saw that everything flipped, literally everything, I saw it immediately as a statistical impossibility. One of the states would have been extraordinary, maybe even just an anomaly, but when all the key states that Trump essentially had locked up had flipped, nah, it was clear something stank. For a week I went back and looked at the timeline of the ballots and never did it ever add up. There’s a reason why there’s such push back AGAINST audits, not recounts but AUDITS, of the election, even though in 2016 that’s exactly what Democrats called for in that election and got in some cases. Then they go and try this “For the People” act garbage and essentially lay it out on the table how they plan to win elections, and it sure isn’t through legitimacy. They know their followers are so brainwashed and loyal that they can do whatever they want to them and they’ll support them. While I’m a registered Independent(the Republican party as a whole is only not scum of the earth because the Democrat party holds that title) I can tell you from talking to some other Independents, most are NOT that Independent and already know they’re going to vote D or R and the Democrats are well aware of this, hence why they keep getting away with their garbage. As long as there are lax voting laws on something as simple as proving you are who you are and are a legal resident allowed to vote, Democrats have no worries. 2016 and Trump winning was really the statistical anomaly and the last grasp effort to stymie the Marxist movement in the country, but of course there were far too many of the establishment Republicans still in office(McStain, Ryan, Flake, etc) who are invested in that as well as controlled opposition.

  2. OMG OMG OMG….Where do i begin?

    First, Donald Trump running in 2024 would be the BIGGEST GIFT EVER to the Democrats. Just flat out. You’re talking about the same man who lost the House and Senate in 4 years. Has done as much or more damage to the ” Republican Party Brand ” since Barry Goldwater. ( hope you realize that? )

    Second : ” Harris is vice president because Democrats told Biden to pick her. Biden obeyed, but American voters — at least not enough of them — won’t.

    This is another example of Bobby not really understanding politics while living inside an Alt Right Neo Bubble not based in reality. Harris was picked because she locked up a key constituent that votes HEAVILY for Democrats and the type of voter that don’t take to kindly to ” Grabbing em by the Pussy”. (WOMEN STUPID) Unlike Sarah Palin who was dumb AF and she was only brought in to secure the ” Get Ur Done / You Betcha Vote” (SHE & they LOST)

    Third “As long as the media doesn’t successfully manufacture a scandal surrounding DeSantis ”

    Good luck with that. Florida now LEADS the NATION in new Covid infections and Texas is right behind. Ironically at a time when DUMBASS DESANTIS decides to institute a State wide mandate against mask. BRILLANT ( BTW….That’s really going over well in individual school districts who understand the VIRUS IS CURRENTLY HULK SMASHING FLORIDA)

    I swear to God, Conservatives can’t be this ignorant?

    OH wait ” Tucker Carlson is now the most influential media voice on the Right. It’s not close. ”

    Need i say more… That’s some funny shit right there ,,,,, Tucker “The Great Replacement” Tucker ?

  3. Trump will run if he thinks he can win. If Biden’s numbers dramatically improve he won’t. That’s why he said he won’t decide until after 2022. He wants to see what happens in the mid-terms.

  4. Absent election fraud, we all know Trump won 2020 by a sizeable margin. Should there be no fraud (or at least minimal) in 2024 Trump or DeSantis would win in a landslide after the train wreck of the current administration. Election integrity is the only real variable here.

  5. Hoping for DeSantis. He’s articulate and always has the perfect response (see his response to Biden about “getting out of the way.”). Trump can remain a spokesman for the party, but honestly, I don’t think he can win in 2024 (he’s too polarizing to people in the middle). He should put his support behind Ron.

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