Whether Belichick Survives Patriots Bye Week Is Out There, But There's A Reason Kraft May Keep Him
The New England Patriots have lost again, this time in Germany where club owner Robert Kraft said a win was "critical," and now the question has shifted to when rather than if Bill Belichick will be out as the team's coach.
There is significant chatter around the NFL that moment might be coming in the next few days. Because the Patriots, 2-8 and in last place in the AFC East, have a bye week once they return to the United States.
"I'm just doing the best I can every day," Belichick said when asked about his job security following this loss.
Belichick's best has been only good enough to have the Patriots in last place in the AFC East. So Kraft, the logic goes, might be tempted to dismiss Belichick during that bye week break move on to an interim coach -- perhaps defensive coach Jerod Mayo or offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien.
Bill Belichick's Future With Patriots In Serious Doubt
Either way, it's going to be a dramatic few days with this club.
But, it should be said, Kraft dismissing Belichick at midseason rather than waiting until the end of the year to negotiate the NFL's second-winningest coach walking away with dignity feels like a overreaction.
That overreaction has nothing to do with Kraft's respect or feelings for Belichick. The owner likely keeping his finger off the coach ejector seat would have everything to do with business and what Kraft has been about throughout his time as owner.
Multiple league sources have told OutKick in the last week that if/when Kraft and Belichick part ways it will be done in a fashion that allows Kraft to protect the best interests of the Patriots. And firing Belichick does not do that.
Remember that Kraft firing Belichick now or even after the season frees Belichick from his contract in that he would then be able to go to any other team in the future as a free agent.
But a negotiated parting of ways does not do that. The Patriots would continue to own the rights to Belichick, assuming the coach doesn't negotiate that out.
And that would allow Kraft and the Patriots to get something in return for Belichick going to another team.
ARLINGTON, TX - OCTOBER 01: New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft at AT&T Stadium on October 1, 2023 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Cooper Neill/Getty Images)
Kraft History Suggests He Wants A Draft Pick
And now some history:
Kraft got a No. 1, No. 2, No. 3 and No. 4 draft pick from the New York Jets when Bill Parcells and the owner negotiated a departure.
The Patriots owner also gave up No. 1, No. 4 and No. 5 draft picks and an exchange of seventh-rounders in order to hire Belichick from the Jets in 2000.
Kraft has not hired another head coach since then. Although it was a long time ago, Kraft continues to be rooted in the idea that a premier head coach is an asset.
And premier assets are not to be discarded without reaping a dividend.
The move that memorialized this for Kraft, oddly enough, was when he followed Belichick's advice and decided quarterback Tom Brady was, or soon would be, declining before the 2019 season.
That thinking, plus the respect Kraft had for Brady, led to a contract extension the Patriots signed with Brady prior to the 2019 season.
FOXBOROUGH, MA - DECEMBER 29: Tom Brady #12 shakes the hand of owner Robert Kraft of the New England Patriots before a game against the Miami Dolphins at Gillette Stadium on December 29, 2019 in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Photo by Adam Glanzman/Getty Images)
Robert Kraft Doesn't Want A Brady Repeat For Pats
It turns out the "extension" only gave Brady a one-year raise, voided the final two years of his contract and prevented New England from using the franchise tag on the quarterback. So staying or leaving was handed over to Brady without New England having a say either way.
It also left New England without the ability to get any compensation if indeed Brady did bolt.
The way that played out is well-chronicled. Brady went to Tampa Bay and won a Super Bowl and two division titles.
The Patriots got nothing in return.
Kraft has privately second-guessed that move. And sources say he would rather not repeat losing an asset, which Belichick still is, without getting something in return.
So if/when Belichick is gone, there will be negotiations. The coach is unlikely to agree to walk out in the middle of the season. That's why a firing now would be surprising.
FRANKFURT AM MAIN, GERMANY - NOVEMBER 12: Mac Jones #10 of the New England Patriots looks to pass from the pocket in the first quarter during the NFL match between the Indianapolis Colts and the New England Patriots at Deutsche Bank Park on November 12, 2023 in Frankfurt am Main, Germany. (Photo by Alex Grimm/Getty Images)
Another Bad Outing For Patriots, Belichick
But a departure seems all but certain. Think about where the Patriots are ... They just lost to a Colts team that is rebuilding with a first-year head coach and starting its backup quarterback
And this is a season in which Kraft has been bitterly disappointed
"I think we all feel that way," Belichick said, practically confirming he and Kraft have talked about the subject. "We're all disappointed in the season. But we'll keep going here. There's still seven games to go. We'll get ready to go next week against the Giants."
Can the Patriots rally and salvage the season? The opposite of that seems likely. Things could get worse.
Belichick benched starting Mac Jones on Sunday after the quarterback threw a fourth-quarter interception. Jones should could have and should have made an easy throw for a touchdown.
Seeing this, Belichick benched Jones in favor of Bailey Zappe. This happened in the final two minutes of a game. Zappe had not played and Jones had gotten all if not nearly all the first-team repetitions in practice last week.
Zappe then also threw an interception that sealed the Colts victory.
So where can Belichick turn to now? Likely to the end of the season when change is certainly coming.