Election Pollwatch: President Trump Likely to Win with Close Popular Vote, Expert Says

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Each week, Outkick will update you on the latest polls for the 2020 Presidential election between Donald Trump and Joe Biden.

Here are the most recent polls from Real Clear Politics:

Fox News has a new poll on key states:

This week’s most interesting development came via pollster Nate Silver. According to Silver, President Donald Trump is likely to win the Electoral College as long as he does not lose the popular vote to Joe Biden by more than 3 percent.

“The Electoral College is not really *safe* for Biden unless he wins by 5+,” Silver tweeted.

Overall, it was not a great week for Democrats. Biden emerged to discuss COVID-19 and America is still wondering what he meant. Even worse, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi got caught at a hair salon in San Francisco — where the average person is not allowed to do the same — and then foolishly blamed it on a “set up.”

61 days to go.

Written by Bobby Burack

Bobby Burack is a writer for OutKick where he reports and analyzes the latest topics in media, culture, sports, and politics..

Burack has become a prominent voice in media and has been featured on several shows across OutKick and industry related podcasts and radio stations.


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  1. I believe Trafalgar Group’s analysis. There’s no reason for Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan to not go Trump again. In fact, there’s much more incentive, especially in Michigan where a liberal Governor has destroyed their economy and continues to do so with overwhelming arrogance. My over/under is the popular vote. If Trump wins that, it will change the way a lot of people look at the country and I’m all for it.

  2. These pollsters are going to be way off again, but here we go…again. There are two main reasons I believe we should not pay attention to polling anymore.
    1. Response Bias – Moderates, Independents, or even traditional Democrats, don’t want anyone to think they’re a “deplorable”. They have no intention for voting for a whack job like Biden, but respond to pollster questions the way they think will please the mainstream media. It’s the same reason all these corporations support BLM, they just want the moonbats to leave them alone. This bias was a culprit last election, and there’s no way to avoid it. The pollsters just hope you had forgotten how they screwed up last time, and remember how polls are fancy ways to illustrate they don’t know what the hell they’re talking about.
    2. The media still doesn’t understand Trump’s base – Trump supporters are well-informed and inherently suspicious of calls from random people they don’t know (good idea). If you are in the habit of fielding random telemarketer calls you have probably had your identity hacked multiple times by now. That’s just not smart in today’s world. Trump voters want people to stay the hell out of their business, presume anyone calling like that’s trying to sell them crap they don’t want, is a liberal loon in the tank for Biden, or some punk trying to steal their identity. They don’t answer when they see the unknown caller ID. As usual, Trump supporters are pretty much correct here across the board. You’re not getting polling over the phone from these folks.

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