As we’ve reached the final week before the election, polls and predictions are clearing up with little expectation they’ll change before November 3.
Sunday, Chuck Todd on Meet the Press broke down the paths for both President Donald Trump and Joe Biden in the race for 270:
In the polls, Biden has begun to solidify Michigan and elevate Wisconsin outside the margin of error, which creates a challenging but not impossible path for Trump
The scenario Todd presents is Biden taking Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nebraska’s 2nd congressional district. Biden leads in all three. If all holds, Trump has just one path to victory: winning Arizona, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Florida.
In 2016, Trump won all four. He currently trails in each, but it’s close.
By way of contrast, Biden would need to win just one of these four states to reach 270 and become the next President of the United States.
This path assumes Trump holds on to Ohio, Texas, Iowa, and Georgia — all of which are presumed to be close, although I do not consider Texas up for grabs.
With a much simpler path to victory, Joe Biden is the favorite. I’ve said since September that Trump needs to win Arizona for re-election. Barring an upset victory in Michigan or Wisconsin, it’s now a necessity.
A counterargument in Trump’s favor is the Trafalgar data, which correctly predicted the 2016 race. After the debate last Thursday, Trafalgar has Trump leading in Michigan (+2), Florida (+2), and Arizona (+3). If these polls are accurate, then Trump has more paths to victory than the common polls indicate.
RealClearPolitics also notes the 2020 polls in the battleground states are nearly identical to 2016 when Trump shockingly beat Hillary Clinton 306-232.
Eight days to go.