Map Breakdown: What Trump and Biden Need to Win

As we’ve reached the final week before the election, polls and predictions are clearing up with little expectation they’ll change before November 3.

Sunday, Chuck Todd on Meet the Press broke down the paths for both President Donald Trump and Joe Biden in the race for 270:

In the polls, Biden has begun to solidify Michigan and elevate Wisconsin outside the margin of error, which creates a challenging but not impossible path for Trump

The scenario Todd presents is Biden taking Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nebraska’s 2nd congressional district. Biden leads in all three. If all holds, Trump has just one path to victory: winning Arizona, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Florida.

In 2016, Trump won all four. He currently trails in each, but it’s close.

By way of contrast, Biden would need to win just one of these four states to reach 270 and become the next President of the United States.

This path assumes Trump holds on to Ohio, Texas, Iowa, and Georgia — all of which are presumed to be close, although I do not consider Texas up for grabs.

With a much simpler path to victory, Joe Biden is the favorite. I’ve said since September that Trump needs to win Arizona for re-election. Barring an upset victory in Michigan or Wisconsin, it’s now a necessity.

A counterargument in Trump’s favor is the Trafalgar data, which correctly predicted the 2016 race. After the debate last Thursday, Trafalgar has Trump leading in Michigan (+2), Florida (+2), and Arizona (+3). If these polls are accurate, then Trump has more paths to victory than the common polls indicate.

RealClearPolitics also notes the 2020 polls in the battleground states are nearly identical to 2016 when Trump shockingly beat Hillary Clinton 306-232.

Eight days to go.

Written by Bobby Burack

Bobby Burack covers media, politics, and sports at OutKick.

9 Comments

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    • Yeah I find that interesting. Why is the media staying away from that like it’s radioactive? I’m not following the whole Russian interference narrative being pushed on that discovery, because it doesn’t make any sense. The store owner has Hunter’s signature on paperwork where he turned it in, no one is denying it’s his laptop, and recipients of emails acknowledged to the NY Post that they receive the emails from him. This isn’t Russia, or the Boogey Man, or aliens either. It’s corruption. I think the problem is there are some really damning(and horrifying) things on that laptop a lot of powerful people don’t want out.

  1. Can someone please break down for me how polls work? I’ve never once been surveyed for polling and I assume a lot of other people are in the same boat. In order for a poll to be accurate wouldn’t you need at least half of a states voting population to participate?

    • Here’s my layman’s theory on polls.

      Many conservatives are leery of telemarketer calls, and if they see some random number coming through on their caller ID they’re not answering. Also, conservatives who know it’s a pollster generally don’t trust the liberal media to get it right even if we told them. Finally, those who do answer feel peer pressure to answer the way they perceive popular society wants them to answer rather than how they truly feel. This was a major flaw in the 2016 polls if I recall. So all this leaves you with a tilted polling base toward the left or moderate. I generally ignore polls after 2016’s epic fail.

  2. No worries Trump is going to get FAR more than he needs and NO Texas ain’t even close to being in play just msm propaganda it will be landslide and 4 more MAGA years.

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