Geoff Clark
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The 8-seed Minnesota Timberwolves needed two play-in games to clinch a playoff berth. Whereas the 1-seed Denver Nuggets essentially locked up home-court advantage throughout the playoffs weeks ago.
Minnesota blew a double-digit lead in a 108-102 overtime loss to the 7-seed LA Lakers in their first play-in game. Then the Timberwolves beat the brakes off the 10th-place OKC Thunder on Thursday.
Denver hasn’t played a meaningful game since dominating the Milwaukee Bucks 129-106 in late-March. Reigning 2-time MVP Nikola Jokic missed five of the Nuggets’ final seven regular-season games. Jokic had minimal impact in the two he played.
These teams tied the regular-season series 2-2 straight up (SU). But, the Timberwolves were 3-1 against the spread (ATS) in those meetings with a +4.3 spread differential.
Timberwolves at Nuggets Odds (DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Tip-off: 10:30 p.m. ET on Sunday, April 16.
- Venue: Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado.
This is the 4th NBA postseason with a play-in tourney. That means the 8-seed Timberwolves come in ramped up for postseason competition. While the 1-seed Nuggets have been chilling at home waiting for their opponent.
In the last three NBA playoffs, 1-seeds are 3-3 SU and 2-4 ATS in Game 1s. Between how insignificant the end of the regular season was and all their time off, the Nuggets will need to knock off rust.
Minnesota’s aggressiveness could give Denver’s defense trouble. Per CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG), the T-Wolves attempts the 5th-highest volume of field goals at the rim, and is 7th in paint points per game (PPG).
The Nuggets are 22nd in defensive field goal percentage vs. shots at the rim, per CTG, and 21st in paint PPG allowed. For as great as Jokic is he is far from an elite rim-protector or defensive big.
Furthermore, Denver only has one good defensive player — SF Aaron Gordon — and will have to decide use him to defend Timberwolves All-Stars Anthony Edwards or Karl-Anthony Towns.
I expect Jokic to “get his” but at least the T-Wolves have a 3-time NBA Defensive Player of the Year (C Rudy Gobert) to throw at him. I could see Minnesota’s defense getting stops vs. a Denver offense that falls flat when Jokic isn’t dominating.
Against a defense as terrible as the Nuggets’, the Timberwolves ATS bet could cash on a backdoor cover. I hope it doesn’t get to that point but it’s just the final box to check in my “pro-Minnesota handicap”.
BET: Timberwolves +7.5 (-110) at DraftKings, down to +6.5
OutKick Bets Podcast: NBA Playoff 2023 Betting Primer Ft. David Troy
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