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I’ve had a good run overall this season to the tune of a 30-13 record (70%) on NFL betting picks. I’ve given against-the-spread, total and player props and have been quite profitable in doing so.
Here’s a recap of our Week 12 NFL action:
Week 12 NFL Betting Picks (4-3)
Buffalo Bills at Detroit Lions Under 54 ✅
New York Giants +10 over Dallas Cowboys ✅
New England Patriots at Minnesota Vikings Under 42.5 ❌
Cincinnati Bengals -2.5 over Tennessee Titans ✅
Denver Broncos -1 over Carolina Panthers ❌
DJ Moore Over 46.5 receiving yards ✅
Pittsburgh Steelers Under 18.5 points at Indianapolis Colts ❌
Week 13 NFL Betting Picks
New York Jets at Minnesota Vikings Under 44.5
One of my favorite ways to look for value in NFL betting picks is to fade what we saw most recently. The NFL is very difficult to beat because books sink a ton of resources into making sure lines are as correct as possible by factoring in tons of variables. One way to gain a slight edge is to go against what the public at large is betting.
That generally leads me to a lot of Under picks because the public generally likes to bet the Over. In this game, we get to take advantage of both of those strategies. What did we see most recently? Well, we lost last week by taking the Under in the Minnesota game because the Vikings and Patriots went nuts on offense. The bet was basically dead after the first half.
But the analysis for that pick remains sound: the Vikings offense just isn’t that great. They had a banner day against a very tough Patriots defense. But, it had a lot to do with Justin Jefferson doing ridiculous things. Admittedly, that could happen again. But I don’t think it will.
Why? Because New York has a #1 shutdown corner. The Jets, like the Patriots, have a Top 5 defense. But the Jets, unlike the Patriots, have a stud on the outside who can match up with Jefferson. Sauce Gardner is Pro Football Focus’ #1 graded cornerback in his rookie season. The Pats have Jonathan Jones, who is very good (ranked 11th by PFF), but he’s not on that level. That’s going to matter a lot in keeping points off the board for the Vikings.
On the Jets side, they just scored 31 points with Mike White at the helm. Of course, everyone is going nuts about how great he is, but remember that this is still Mike White. And the 31 points the Jets scored came against the second-worst defense in the NFL — the Bears, who are only better than the Lions.
White opens up the offense a little bit more than Zach Wilson because he has confidence to make the big throws, but not enough to vault this Jets offense into some kind of different stratosphere. They still have a Bottom 10 offense in the league and prior to the Bears game had averaged 14 points over the previous four.
The Jets have feasted on bad defenses and struggled against good ones. Minnesota is basically league-average so we’ll put them somewhere in the middle. To me, this has all the makings of a 21-17 game that could go either way, so we’ll pass on a side and take the under.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Atlanta Falcons Under 42
If one is good, two is better! We’re going back to the Under well again for this NFL betting pick. We were Under on the Steelers team total last week and it didn’t hit. But, I still like the analysis. Why? The Steelers are not a quick-strike offense.
Just exactly how slow-strike are the Steelers? I’m glad you asked! First, Pittsburgh has only scored 16 offensive touchdowns in 11 games this season. Of those 16 drives, only one was less than 7 plays. And that drive actually started at the opponent’s four-yard line thanks to a turnover and it STILL took three plays to score.
On the other 15 scoring drives, the Steelers average 10 plays to score. They haven’t had a TD drive of less than 8 plays since Week 4. That eats up a lot of clock. Plus, most Pittsburgh drives actually aren’t successful at all. According to Football Outsiders, the Steelers net drive success rate is 26th in the NFL.
They are one spot behind … the Atlanta Falcons. Both teams are only ahead of the Cardinals, Rams, Titans, Bears, Panthers and Texans. Yeah, not good company.
The Steelers also rank dead-last in the NFL in yards per pass attempt at 6.1. While Atlanta is actually successful when they do pass (11th in the NFL at 7.4), they just don’t throw it that often. They are second-to-last in the league with 23 pass attempts per game (Chicago, 21). Plus, they just officially lost stud tight end Kyle Pitts for the season.
This has all the makings of a slow-paced ground-and-pound style contest between these two squads. Pittsburgh has been a slight Under team this season (6-5 to the Under) while Atlanta has split (6-6 Over-Under). However, six of their past nine have gone Under after a 3-0 Over start.
New York Giants +2.5 over Washington Commanders
The phrase “I just can’t quit you” comes to mind here. I’ve been on the Giants so many times this year I’ve lost count. But they’ve won me a lot of money (8-3 against-the-spread this season) and Vegas continues to give them no respect. How they are home underdogs against Washington is completely baffling to me.
I reference it a lot, and I’m going to again because it’s been good to me. According to EPA/play, the Giants are better than the Commanders. AND THEY’RE AT HOME.
To Washington’s credit, they’ve been a great ATS team, as well. The Commanders are 7-4-1 vs. the number this season, including 5-1 with Taylor Heinicke starting. I’m just not buying the Heinicke hype.
Yes, he has an excellent win over the Eagles. Washington went into Philadelphia on Monday Night Football and beat the previously undefeated squad. Credit where credit is due. But here are the other teams that Washington has beaten in those six games: Packers, Colts, Texans, Falcons. They lost to Minnesota.
So, Eagles aside, the other four wins have come against teams with a combined 14-31-2 record. None of them has a winning record. The team they lost to, the Vikings, are very similar to the Giants if you look at the EPA/play chart. And Washington lost to Minnesota AT HOME. Yet, they’re favored on the road against a similar team? The Titans, who are on the exact same tier line as the Giants, also beat the Commanders this season.
Plus, we get back to fade what we saw most recently. The Giants played on Thanksgiving (which also gives them extra rest and prep time) and got beaten pretty handily by the Cowboys. The game was closer than it appeared. But the public, I think, believe the Giants were completely outclassed.
Washington won last week, Brian Robinson wore a big hat, and Taylor Heinicke continues to look like an incredible NFL QB. This is a fun team! I think the public is buying into that narrative. But I am not. Give me the Giants. Again.
Follow Dan Zaksheske on Twitter: @OutkickDanZ