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These 6 States Will Decide 2022, 2024 Elections

Of the 50 states, only a handful decide the outcome of any US election. According to longtime political advisor Doug Sosnik, that handful is now down to six.

In a new memo published by Axios, Sosnik says the following states will decide the majority parties in Congress this November and the presidential election in 2024:

  1. Arizona
  2. Georgia,
  3. Michigan
  4. Pennsylvania
  5. Wisconsin
  6. Nevada

None of this is ideal for President Biden, whose approval rating in battleground states is in the low 40s.

Odds from Paddy Power, owned by FanDuel’s parent company Flutter in the UK, lists Donald Trump as the favorite to win a general election in 2024. However, keep in mind that the presidential election is two years away, and in this news cycle, two years is an eternity.

At the moment, 2022 is likely much easier to project. According to an NBC survey, the current political mood suggests a strong Republican turnout in November, with a 17-point advantage in voter enthusiasm.

Though politicians like to discuss many issues, voters care about inflation and the cost of living. These two issues will decide the 2022 midterm elections — and both of them are losing propositions for Democrats right now.

Currently, the Senate is 50-50 with Vice President Harris giving Democrats the tie-breaker. Cook Political Report projects the following Senators will face off in “toss-up” elections this November:

  • PA-Open (R)
  • WI-Johnson (R)
  • AZ-Kelly (D)
  • GA-Warnock (D)
  • NV-Cortez Masto (D)

Meanwhile, 221 Democrats and 209 Republicans make up the House. Nearly one-third of Cook’s most competitive House seats are located in those six battleground states.

Finally, polls project competitive 2022 gubernatorial elections in five of the six states that Sosnik mentions. Yes, that means Michiganders could vote the angry lockdown lady, Gretchen Whitmer, out of office by the end of the year.

Nevada is the most surprising entry on the list, though it became a key battleground state after margins of less than 2.5% in 2016 and 2020. It’s the only one of the six that did not vote for the winning presidential candidates in both 2016 and 2020, and it’s the only one without a competitive gubernatorial election this year.

“Th[e]se are all foreboding signs for Democrats,” Sosnik concludes.

Written by Bobby Burack

Bobby Burack covers media, politics, and sports at OutKick.

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