2024 Odds: New Favorite at No. 1

Paddy Power, owned by FanDuel's parent company Flutter in the UK, released updated odds for the 2024 presidential election:

Compared to odds in August, former President Donald Trump moved from third place at 7/1 to first at 3/1. Meanwhile, President Biden dropped from 4/1 to 5/1. Vice President Kamala Harris stayed at 5/1, though she is now ranked third overall.

Trump's upward shift has more to do with Biden than anything he has done himself. Americans voted Biden into office because he wasn't Donald Trump. Could Americans next vote Trump back into the White House on the fact he isn't Joe Biden? Recent trends suggest they might.

Biden's approval rating is plummeting due to his handling of the Southern border, the disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan, federal vaccine mandates, and his inability to communicate well. Since he was inaugurated, Biden has served up one loss after another. Voters never asked Biden to win. They only asked Biden not to lose. All he had to do was stay in cruise control.

The problem is Biden isn't the one in control, cruise or otherwise. He is a backseat passenger with a reckless driver. We just don't know who's driving the car.

I'm also intrigued by the former vice president's odds, though it's doubtful that Trump would get behind Mike Pence after their disagreement over the election validation earlier this year. Three years out, I believe Trump will either win the GOP nomination or greatly boost the candidate he handpicks by sending his support his or her way, so the Trump effect still matters here, one way or the other.

For this reason, I argued back in August that Gov. Ron DeSantis likely will not challenge Trump in a primary:

"While there's an argument to be made that DeSantis would perform better than Trump in a general election, Trump has a significant built-in advantage among Republican voters. Trump has the power to turn his base against any GOP candidate who challenges him."

So could a Republican candidate win the nomination without the support of Trump’s base? That's the key unknown factor here.

Should Trump decide not to run, DeSantis's 12/1 odds could skyrocket by next year. In a straw poll based on a hypothetical Republican primary that doesn't include Trump, DeSantis led the pack with 43% support. South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem finished second, all the way down at 11%.

What odds stand out to you? Comment below: