Take Scherzer and Mets in Coinflip

Mets vs. Braves, 7:20 ET

I played the Mets game yesterday and am looking at it once again with them taking on the Braves once again. This isn’t a series that will do anything other than iron out the playoff picture. Both of these teams will make it and this could be a playoff matchup at some point. While both still want to capture the division it won’t be the end of the world if they don’t.

Max Scherzer is pitching for the Mets. Usually, that means it is an auto victory or at least a game that you probably want to avoid moneyline bets on. As of this writing, the game is a coinflip – a -110 game for both them and the Braves. I mentioned in yesterday’s article that Jacob deGrom wasn’t pitching very well lately. Scherzer, on the other hand, is pitching great. Over his last four starts, he has had three quality starts and hasn’t given up more than one earned run. The Mets have lost four of his last seven starts though. He has been awesome against the Braves for the season. Over 20.1 innings, he has allowed just five earned runs. Most of those came in one start, his most recent one against the Braves.

Kyle Wright is pitching for the Braves. While he doesn’t have the same name recognition that Scherzer does, he has been very good for them. There are only a few games that he has struggled in, but the Braves have won 13 of the last 14 starts that Wright has. That’s even with him giving up eight runs in one of those games. At home, Wright has a stellar 2.83 ERA. With the exclusion of what seems like one start per month, Wright is dealing for the Braves and the only 20-game-winner in baseball. Do the 20 games mean that much? Not really, but it is still a benchmark. He has struggled against the Mets a bit. In two starts, he has gone 13 innings and allowed nine earned runs. Six of those came in his most recent outing against them.

I have to take the Mets in this one. Wright has been pitching very well, but you’re not going to get Scherzer at this price very often. I’m taking him and the Mets to win the game. I actually don’t feel as confident in a first five bet as I do with them winning the full game, but I can’t really put a clear justification for it.

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Written by David Troy

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