Geoff Clark
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Game 1 of the 2023 Western Conference Semifinals series between the 4-seed Phoenix Suns vs. 1-seed Denver Nuggets tips off at 8:30 p.m. ET Saturday at the Ball Arena in Colorado.
Phoenix demolished a depleted 5-seed Clippers 4-1 in the 1st-round. Devin Booker scored 37.2 points per game (PPG) on 60.2% shooting vs. LAC. Kevin Durant put up 28.4 PPG on a 51.8% field goal rate.
SUNS VS. NUGGETS: NBA 2023 WESTERN CONFERENCE SEMIS BETTING BREAKDOWN
Denver also made quick work of the 8-seed T-Wolves in the 1st-round. 4-1. Nikola Jokic averaged nearly a triple-double for the series and Jamal Murray scored 27.2 PPG on 59.8% true shooting (.471/.429/.909).
The Suns-Nuggets regular-season series is irrelevant. In their final two meetings of the season, Denver was missing Jokic and Murray. Their 1st two games this season were before Phoenix traded for KD.
Suns at Nuggets Game 1 odds (DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Tip-off: 8:30 p.m. ET.
- Venue: Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado.
This series is going to come down to offensive execution by the superstars. Neither defense is any good nor are these teams deep. Since I give the Suns the edge in that respect, I’ll take them in Game 1.
The biggest knock on Phoenix’s title chances is its lack of continuity. But, my counter-argument to that point is Durant and Booker are so good offensively that their continuity doesn’t matter.
Phoenix is 12-1 SU in the KD’s 13 games as a Sun. In these playoffs, the Suns have the best non-garbage time offensive rating, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).
Denver only has two good defenders — F Aaron Gordon and G Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (KCP) — however, neither is good enough to stop KD or Booker.
Good offense always beats good defense in basketball. Gordon and KCP can play perfect defense and Durant and Booker could still hit tough shots. Both KD and Booker are tough-shotmakers.
The thing I’m most confident about in this Suns-Nuggets series is that Booker will be the best player in it. Booker is going to dismantle KCP and there’s nothing Denver’s defense can do to stop that.
Per the betting splits, Phoenix seems to be the square side in Game 1 and the pros are rolling with the Nuggets. They are a fake sharp play though. Most of the sports betting shows I consume are backing Denver in Game 1.
The supposed sharps are factoring in the Nuggets’ continuity and the Mile High City being a tough place to play. But, if I’m right about the Suns having an edge in this series, then the best number I’ll get for Phoenix is for Game 1.
BET: Phoenix +3.5 (-110) & ‘sprinkle’ on +135 ML
- Betting strategy: Put 1.15 units on Phoenix’s spread and a quarter-unit on the ML (for example, 1 unit = $100).
Listen to the ‘OutKick Bets with Geoff Clark’ podcast HERE.
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