Why Are Young Hitters Across Major League Baseball Struggling So Much?

Jackson Holliday's debut with the Baltimore Orioles was one of the most anticipated days of the 2024 Major League Baseball season.

The 20-year-old Holliday has dominated at every step in the minor leagues since becoming the first overall pick in the 2022 MLB Draft. Holliday started 2023 in low-A, before being promoted all the way to AAA by the end of the season. After a dominant 2024 spring training, it seemed like only a matter of time before he made his big league debut. 

Sure enough, he started 2024 on a tear in AAA. Holliday had 14 hits in his first 10 games, including four doubles and two homers. Unsurprisingly, Baltimore called him up. And it did not go well.

Holliday appeared in 10 games with the Orioles and was atrocious. He struck out in 50 percent of his plate appearances, hitting just .059 with a .111 on base percentage and .059 slugging percentage. Not a single extra base hitting. Welcome to the big leagues.

And he's not the only young hitter who's gotten a rude awakening coming to the majors this year. So why does this keep happening?

Anaheim, Calif. - Baltimore Orioles second baseman Jackson Holliday reacts after striking out against the Los Angeles Angels during the third inning on April 23 at Angel Stadium. Photo: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Jackson Holliday And Young MLB Stars Struggling With Elite Pitching

The gap between Triple-A and the majors may never have been bigger, and some specific changes MLB made could be responsible. 

Several years ago, in response to minor league players asking, quite reasonably, for more money and better living conditions, the owners decided they would cut down on the number of players in the minors. And as a result, teams began cutting older players with more minor league experience but who were no longer seen as prospects. While justifiable, it meant that the quality of pitching in the high minors declined substantially.

Stuff+, a metric that measures the quality of pitches based on spin characteristics, velocity and movement, has measured the average major league pitch at 100. In Triple A, it's 86, according to The Athletic. There's always been a gap, but now it's an even bigger one. And it's made evaluating when a player is ready harder than before.

Other young players have come up and struggled, Kyle Manzardo stumbled out of the gate in Cleveland, and Jackson Merrill one of the game's top prospects in San Diego, started off hot before entering a deep slump. 

The 21-year-old Merrill is hitting .268/.319/.362, with just a .219 batting average since the middle of April. It's hard making the adjustment. 

Every Aspect Of The Major League Game Is Harder

The Athletic quoted Guardians manager Stephen Vogt, a former big leaguer himself, explaining the difference between MLB and AAA.

"You’re going from a place where there’s a few guys who have played in the big leagues, some people who might one day, to every single person is a big-leaguer and there are no breaks, there are no easy at-bats," Vogt said. "You have the best defenders in the world trying to catch the ball and now all of a sudden you’re seeing pitches in situations that you’ve never seen before. A lot of people misrepresent that. They don’t understand how big of a jump it truly is." 

Another explanation came from Orioles general manager Mike Elias, who explained that scouting, planning and executing is done at a much higher level in MLB. 

"If there’s a bigger gap than normal, probably my strongest hypothesis would be that advance scouting and planning is getting so technically robust and so concentrated," Elias explained. "You go from sort of doing a little bit of that in the minors with lower-quality info and less intensity, and then all of a sudden you’ve got 29 advance teams and pitchers who are able to execute those plans way better. The impact of that has compounded or accelerated in the last few years."

Social media has made the debut of young players an event; the official MLB accounts spent days and weeks hyping up Jackson Holliday, notifying app users to watch his every at bat. They're doing something similar with Pittsburgh Pirates prospect Paul Skenes as a pitcher. Fans then, expect young prospects to immediately dominate; performing like Shohei Ohtani or Ronald Acuna Jr. immediately. And they're disappointed to see those players still adjusting to the tougher league.

Early struggles don't mean that Merrill or Holliday won't be stars in the years to come. But with the gap between AAA and MLB bigger than it's ever been, it may take longer than most would like to admit. And it's made evaluating when players are ready harder than ever before.