Where Has Padres Slugger Fernando Tatis Jr.'s Power Gone?
Padres star's slugging percentage dropped to career-low .431
The San Diego Padres have once again put themselves in position to make the postseason, sitting in the fifth seed in the National League, 3.5 games clear of the Cincinnati Reds for a playoff spot.
For a team with players like Manny Machado, Jackson Merrill, Xander Bogaerts and Fernando Tatis Jr., you'd think that it was San Diego's offense pushing the team towards contention. Instead, it's been the pitching staff, especially the bullpen, which has been baseball's best, that's carrying the team.
San Diego's been just 2.8 runs above average offensively this year, good for just 14.4 wins above replacement from their position players. Their pitching staff, however, ranks fourth in the league with 15 WAR.
That's still not the most surprising part about the Padres' production this season: it's the fact that the team's power output has been so mediocre. Thanks partially to the team's best offensive player seeing his once top-tier power all but evaporate.
SAN DIEGO - San Diego Padres right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. (23) hits a solo home run in the sixth inning against the Colorado Rockies at Petco Park on April 11, 2025. Photo: Chadd Cady-Imagn Images
Padres Need Power, Tatis Doesn't Seem To Have Any
Surprisingly for a team in playoff contention, the Padres have hit just 106 home runs as of Wednesday afternoon. That ranks 29th out of 30 teams, ahead of just the lowly Pittsburgh Pirates. For comparison, the Yankees have hit 204 homers. San Diego's nearly 100 behind the league leader.
Heck, they're 81 behind the team they're chasing in the NL West, the Los Angeles Dodgers. Again, this is a team with Manny Machado, Jackson Merrill, Xander Bogaerts and Fernando Tatis Jr.
What in the world is happening?
Well, one of the primary culprits, other than Merrill battling injuries and having a disappointing second season in the league, is the fact that Tatis has gone from one of baseball's most prolific power hitters to someone who hasn't hit a homer in 83 at bats. He's hit just one home run since the All-Star Break.
His slugging percentage in 2021 was .611. This season? Just .431.
What's the explanation? Nobody's quite sure, though after the 2021 season Tatis was popped for testing positive for Clostebol, a banned steroid. Since returning in 2023, his slugging percentages have been far, far below .611. Though this year is a new career low. Some Padres coaches have suggested his contact point is to blame.
He's still been a well above-average hitter, thanks to an improved on-base percentage and declining strikeout rate. And positive defensive metrics have contributed to a 5-win season. Still, whatever it is, they have to figure it out fast: teams that don't hit home runs rarely advance deep into the postseason. Or maybe this is just who Tatis is. And that might be even scarier.