What Happens If Juan Soto Struggles In New York?

Juan Soto is now a New York Yankee, to the great delight of the ever passionate Yankees' fanbase.

Soto's career to this point has been exceptional, particularly on offense. According to Fangraphs, he's been worth 217 runs more than the average player at his position through just 779 career games. Despite having completed just his age-24 season, he’s hit an impressive 160 home runs. And contrary to his reputation, he's added 50 career steals. Adding value to his exceptional .421 on base percentage.

There's really no debate; Juan Soto is a superstar. But while his overall stardom is inarguable, does he represent an optimal fit for the New York Yankees in particular?

Believe it or not, that question is actually up for some debate.

It'd be easy to assume that because Soto is moving from Petco Park, long one of Major League Baseball's best pitcher's parks, to Yankee Stadium, which has long been known as a hitter's paradise, that his offensive numbers would skyrocket. Except there’s a substantial amount of data that actually suggests the exact opposite.

DENVER - Juan Soto of the San Diego Padres bats against the Colorado Rockies in the ninth inning of a game at Coors Field on September 25, 2022. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images)

Juan Soto Might Actually Get Hurt By Yankee Stadium Dimensions

It's easy for Yankees fans to dream of Soto launching home runs into the short right field porch at Yankee Stadium. And for good reason, considering the team’s long history of left handed power hitters.

But a substantial portion of Soto's homers last season actually were hit to left field or the left center field gap. And Yankee Stadium, surprisingly, has a cavernous left center field; one of the deepest in the sport.

A heat map from Baseball Savant of where Soto's home runs went out in 2023 overlaid over the dimensions of Yankee Stadium shows why there's a bit more cause for concern than most would expect.

There are certainly plenty of homers to right center and dead center field, but that dark red circle in left field represents a number of balls that Yankee Stadium would have kept in the yard. Unfortunately for the team and for Soto, a lot of his power is to the opposite field. And Yankee Stadium is, despite its reputation, a pretty tough park to hit homers in that direction.

That means we may see a lot of no-doubt homers to right, but fewer overall in 2024. And sure enough, Baseball Savant estimates that of Soto's 35 home runs in 2023, he'd have hit just 27 had he played all his games at Yankee Stadium. That was tied with two other stadiums for his worst hypothetical total.

By contrast, he'd have hit 36 if he played all his games at Dodger Stadium, despite that park’s reputation as a pitcher's haven. Even his doubles may drop in the Bronx; the short right field porch means outfielders play closer to the infield, taking away one of his most commonly used parts of the field.

Could It Impact The Soto Free Agency?

One of Soto's best skills is his ability to get on base. Few, if any, current MLB players have his command of the strike zone and willingness to wait out at bats.

That ability will never slump. Even fighting through the normal ups and downs of a professional career, Soto's never had a single season on base percentage lower than .401.

But what happens if his power output dips substantially playing 81 games at a stadium that doesn't fit his tendencies? Could the Yankees try to secure an extension, hoping that Scott Boras doesn't want to risk a lower than expected contract in free agency?

Or will Boras, and by extension Soto, put faith in the analytical nature of modern front offices, who could easily access similar batted ball data to see how he'd fit in their stadiums.

Either way, Soto will get paid. A lot. But it could present some cause for concern over Soto's fit in pinstripes. Especially considering the Yankees fan base isn't known for its patience or perspective. They infamously booed Aaron Judge during the postseason immediately after he broke the American League home run record. As just one example.

Stay tuned, the Juan Soto show could be a lot more interesting than many expect.