Upsets Still Happen In March Madness, But True Cinderellas Are Disappearing

Whether Cinderella still has a place at the ball that is March Madness remains the hottest debate about this electrifying tournament.

It seems like every year, there’s at least one mid-major team that makes it a few rounds that, on paper, has no business being there. Who could forget 2006 George Mason, 2018 Loyola-Chicago, or 2022 St. Peter’s? 

Sure, they make quick work of your bracket, but they are the kind of runs that the poor and overlooked ones are the same people who shine the brightest at the ball.

But can they anymore, or has the clock struck midnight on these stories? 

Mid-Major Schools Can't Compete Financially In NIL Era 

We all know that NIL has heavily shifted the balance of power in favor of the blue bloods, because the harsh truth is they can simply fork over more money than smaller schools. 

Is there a rising star on a team like South Dakota State whose name is Oscar Cluff? No problem. Purdue could ride in with their trainloads full of money and whisk him off to West Lafayette with minimal resistance from their competitors.

Just take a look at how much the Sweet 16 schools from this year spent on just their basketball teams.

Good luck to George Mason keeping up with that. 

How is this playing out in real time? Consider this: since the current 64-team format started in 1985, at least one mid-major school made the Sweet 16. That is, until the past two editions of the tournament.

It’s hard to make the case that we'll never have a mid-major Cinderella again based on two years of evidence; we just don't have enough data yet. Maybe next year, Yale and Florida Gulf Coast counteract all of what we've seen over the past two years.

But it doesn’t look good, nor does it change the harsh reality that NIL has impacted everything roster-related and siphoned all the talent at lower-end schools to richer ones. That's something St. John’s coach Rick Pitino is not a fan of.

"I may be looking at three guys returning next year and I have got to bring in 10. They all become free agents," Pitino said. "I was at Iona…every good player in the MAC was poached by another school. It’s just not something I like."

This Year Has Had Plenty Of Upsets, Mostly From Lower-Ranked Power Conference Teams

To be clear, its not like lower-ranked teams can’t win games anymore. No. 11 VCU beat blueblood and No. 6 UNC. No. 12 High Point took down No. 5 Wisconsin and gave No. 4 Arkansas all they could handle. No. 11 Texas went from First Four longshot to scaring the daylights out of No. 2 Purdue in the Sweet 16. And No. 9 Iowa? They knocked off the defending champions (Florida) and are one win away from the Final Four.

Lower seeds still do have a shot at these tournaments. But as OutKick founder Clay Travis mentioned, all the Sweet 16 teams ultimately came from one of the sport’s power conferences. No mid-majors survived the gauntlet of the first weekend. And can we really call any team with a basketball payroll of at least $6.25 million (Iowa) a Cinderella?

Sometimes, luck wins you games in this tournament, but more often than not, it simply comes down to who has the most talent. And right now, Cinderella can’t bring in, or retain, enough of it to keep up with the rich kids at the ball.

Her time at the party may not be over yet; she could show up to next year’s tournament wearing High Point purple or VCU black and gold. But the hour hand looks like it's getting awfully close to midnight on those days.

In the future, we may have to settle for calling a Power 5 school that underachieves in the regular season a Cinderella. And that would be a shame.